Messages

286

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: October 03, 2012, 04:37:36 PM »

Watch has been upgraded to a warning and snowfall accumulations has been bumped up AGAIN.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND 10
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

MNZ001-002-004-007-NDZ008-016-027-030-050600-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.121004T0600Z-121005T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0003.121004T0600Z-121005T0600Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-PEMBINA-EASTERN WALSH-
GRAND FORKS-TRAILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...HALLOCK...WARREN...CAVALIER...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...
MAYVILLE
330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO
  30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO ON THURSDAY WITHIN FALLING AND
  BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ON TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES MAY
  CAUSE THEM TO BREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

287

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Jeff Morrow leaves TWC

« on: October 03, 2012, 03:49:47 PM »

I liked Jeff Morrow, so it's a shame to hear he's leaving. I do wish him the best, where ever he may end up.

288

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: October 03, 2012, 10:42:51 AM »

Models are coming to closer agreement yet again and snowfall totals look to be a bit more significant here than previously indicated.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022-023-051700-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.121004T1200Z-121005T1700Z/
ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...NEWFOLDEN...
RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...
BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA
418 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
  MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE
  HEAVY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO
  30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN FALLING AND BLOWING
  SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

289

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: October 03, 2012, 10:03:34 AM »

45° Mostly Cloudy. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for tonight into Thursday night. Snowfall accumulations of 6 inches or higher are possible.

290

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: October 02, 2012, 05:53:51 PM »

80° Few Clouds. 1-2 inches of snow possible tomorrow night.

291

Everything Else TWC / Re: Why The Weather Channel is Naming Winter Storms

« on: October 02, 2012, 04:10:00 PM »

Craig, I'm fine with naming big winter storms after they occur.   I'm not a fan of seeing someone wasting precious time trying to decide if a highly uncertain and complex winter storm should be named before it happens.  The public only wants to know what's going to happen, how much will fall, when will it start and end, and what should they do.  Besides, what would we define as the naming criteria for a developing winter storm?  Pressure and winds alone won't work.  You have to consider so many other factors.

Furthermore, you're taking a huge risk of downplaying unnamed winter storms before they create disasters.  A small area of low pressure could trigger 1/2" of ice from freezing drizzle over Atlanta, or a small Alberta clipper could set up lake-effect bands that dump 1'-2' of snow and cause blizzard conditions in Chicago.  These hypothetical systems would never be named before they happened as they're so subtle, but they would create a nightmare for those cities that names may be needed after the fact.

I see your point. I think I have came to conclusion but I'd like to see their criteria for naming specific storms. It should be interesting what the criteria is and I wonder if it varies from region to region.

It should be if they plan on measuring it by overall impact - certain parts of the country are not as prepared for a big winter storm apart from another, especially since they don't expect it.

292

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: October 02, 2012, 12:03:39 PM »

From the National Weather Service...potential for significant snowfall accumulations and blowing snow across the Northern Red River Valley and Northwest Minnesota. 

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
054-032145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-
EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-
NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-
TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN...
RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...
BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...PARK RAPIDS...CANDO...
LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...
NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...
MAYVILLE...ADAMS
1008 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2012

...POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM
THAT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MELT THE SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE
EVENT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THE CURRENT TIME...WEATHER MODELS ARE TARGETING THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM COULD PARTICULARLY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FUTURE UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SYSTEM.

293

Everything Else TWC / Re: Why The Weather Channel is Naming Winter Storms

« on: October 02, 2012, 10:22:35 AM »

I wonder about the criteria for it. It has to vary drastically by regions, a 1 footer in the Southeast would carry more merit for a name than a 1 footer in the Northeast would.

I kinda like the idea, (on the fence about how it can effectively work) but given how TWC has been now, I would feel more comfortable about this if they were working in conjunction with the HPC so it doesn't come off as being overly gloried and hyped which we know is one of the main motivators for this.

Also they put a lot of stake into talking about naming Snowstorms, what about Icestorms? I mean they mention ice being in the criteria in the article, but an icestorm by itself carries even more drastic effects to the population/property than snowstorms.

Wow, the more I think about this, the more it's starting to feel like a bad idea. More questions than answers coming up in my head. Best of luck to them on the concept though.

Nothing new for the Northern Plains. Folks up here have been "naming" winter storms that blow through for at least a decade. I do wonder what the criteria is, though.

294

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: October 01, 2012, 04:54:54 PM »

Agree, but GFS has also been overly wet this entire year. I can't wait for the first snow, either - looks like it might be coming Wednesday night!

295

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: October 01, 2012, 01:24:45 PM »

It is getting close to the time of year when people start talking snow up in North Dakota. Normally, we do not get any real accumulations until late October or early November. However, there is a decent chance at seeing some snowfall accumulations - albeit light - in Grand Forks and areas to our north late this week as a weak low pressure system slides north across Minnesota - following the pattern of a Colorado Low.

NWS Grand Forks does not mention snow in our forecast as surface temperatures will be on the warm side and should melt any snow that does fall. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the table. HPC does have decent 1 inch snowfall probs for us and areas north, as will as a significant snowfall contour for 4 inches or more for the same area (Almost zero faith in that forecast as it relies on very specific parameters to be met). Maps are attached below.

For the record, if snowfall does fall this week across Grand Forks, it will break the record for earliest recorded snowfall accumulations in the city, according to NWS records dating back to 1981. The earliest day that saw snowfall accumulations of 0.1 inches or greater was October 26th. The earliest 1 inch accumulation was November 9th.

296

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: September 30, 2012, 06:28:15 PM »

79° Partly Cloudy and Breezy. Cooler air moves in mid-week with a chance of very isolated snow sprinkles Wednesday night. 

297

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: September 29, 2012, 09:55:46 PM »

Record high tied today.

000
SXUS73 KFGF 300148
RERFGF

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
848 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT GRAND FORKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ND...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OCCURRED AT GRAND FORKS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ND THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED
THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1943.

298

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: September 29, 2012, 09:54:53 PM »

Getting excited about the next week or so as some much colder air finally dives south into the Dakotas. It's far out on GFS, but that model wants to drop the 850 mb 0° C isotherm well south into Kansas, the Great Lakes, and almost the entire Northeast. 

299

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Nadine

« on: September 28, 2012, 11:06:06 AM »

Nadine is now a hurricane. Again. 

300

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: September 27, 2012, 03:51:39 PM »

72° Overcast. Temperatures well above average this week.