Messages

1246

General Weather Chat / Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Feb. 24

« on: February 22, 2011, 12:44:04 PM »

Day 3 Convective Outlook. The highest risk area seems to be Arkansas.
MAP REMOVED

And the probabilities.
MAP REMOVED

1247

General Weather Chat / Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Feb. 24

« on: February 20, 2011, 09:15:02 AM »

The severe weather season looks like it will get underway Thursday. The SPC 4-8 Day Outlook cites severe weather on Day 5 in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Louisiana, and West Tennessee.  Here's a portion of the synopsis:

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

1248

Forecasting / Re: Ask The Weather Expert!

« on: February 19, 2011, 12:28:29 AM »

Hi, again.

There's been debate over a certain youtube video floating around about the type of cloud this plane is flying over in Australia. Based on what looks like "bursting tops," I'd say these are fully developed CB Incis clouds. What do you think?

Here's the link:

Cabin Crew announcement approaching thunderstorm flying at 40,000 feet

1249

General Discussion / Re: House Budget Proposal Could Devastate the NWS’s Watch/Warning Forecasts

« on: February 16, 2011, 04:29:40 PM »

Wow, that is asinine. Let's hope to god that even if the the budget cut gets through the Democrats in the Senate, the NWS is at least spared.

1250

Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread

« on: February 15, 2011, 10:37:22 PM »

Wow, isn't funny that the two deadliest tornado outbreaks in recent history occurred within a year or less of a weakening La Nina pattern? There was the May 3, 1999 outbreak, and then, of course, the Super Tuesday Outbreak, on February 5-6 of 2008. It makes you wonder who will get slammed over the next couple months and how hard.

If there's an imminent outbreak, I'll definitely try to get the SPC outlooks and what not posted. In fact, in correlation with this tab (with permission from TWCC_Lightning), I'd like to start a sister thread that just contains convective outlook and warning maps, self-updating.

1251

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: February 14, 2011, 08:22:35 PM »

By the way, hello from Norman, OK.  I've made it through the flight just fine, and it's a warm sunny day here.

Oh my God, that town is the BEST! And the National Weather Center...man oh man, I could live in that place! Just hope that the weather doesn't become ironically bad while you're there.
 
On a sadder note, the consequences of all those snow days are finally hitting. Thankfully, our school has elected to not shorten breaks, but for two weeks, we are going to have every single class. The rings around my eyes are about to get a WHOLE lot darker.

1252

Winter Weather / Re: January 31st-February 2nd Superstorm

« on: February 02, 2011, 07:42:30 PM »

Here is the pic, from www.simuawips.com. All that white stuff from Texas to New York...is snow.

1253

Winter Weather / Re: January 31st-February 2nd Superstorm

« on: February 01, 2011, 09:58:09 PM »

I'll get a picture when I can, but the visible satellite is showing nothing but white across Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. It's almost scary.

1254

Winter Weather / Re: January 31st-February 2nd Superstorm

« on: January 31, 2011, 04:33:10 PM »

Blizzard warnings for a swatch of counties from Oklahoma to Illinois. This includes the cities of St. Louis and Chicago. This storm is gonna become a travel nightmare.

1255

Winter Weather / Re: January 31st-February 2nd Severe Weather Event

« on: January 30, 2011, 10:06:25 PM »

More information, from CNN. Extremely cold air will push its way southward into the Southern Plains, bringing in high temperatures around 50 degrees below average. The Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma are expected to see lows Monday night just above 0. Oklahoma City could see the mercury hit 3 degrees Tuesday night. Below zero temperatures are a very real possibility from Kansas and Missouri northward.

This storm means serious business. Anyone in the path of this storm, PLEASE stay safe. Oh, and enjoy your snow days. 

1256

Winter Weather / Re: January 31st-February 2nd Severe Weather Event

« on: January 30, 2011, 09:13:47 PM »

Here is the current warning/watch map from the Storm Prediction Center. All that blue and pink you see are winter storm watches, advisories, and warnings. This storm looks to slam a whole slew of areas from New Mexico ( ) up into Pennsylvania and eventually farther north.



NOTE: This map updates periodically on its own. This map will no longer apply to the current situation in about 48-72 hours.

1257

Winter Weather / January 31st-February 2nd Superstorm

« on: January 30, 2011, 05:34:00 PM »

29 states and an estimated 100 million people are expected to be affected by a monster snowstorm, while the South, primarily on Tuesday, will experience strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.

Feel free to post whatever information or thoughts you have on this system.

1258

General Weather Chat / Re: Mid-February Blizzard/Superstorm?

« on: January 27, 2011, 07:19:45 PM »

My bad. Someone from the dorm had run in and told me that specific number. Decided to double-check it just before I posted, and didn't see the number. So, scratch 15-20 inches. Let's just assume the snowfall will be above average.

1259

General Weather Chat / Re: Mid-February Blizzard/Superstorm?

« on: January 27, 2011, 06:11:11 PM »

Just keep in mind that the South is projected by the Farmer's Almanac to get "above average snowfall." Makes you wonder what the Northeast might get.

1260

General Weather Chat / Mid-February Blizzard/Superstorm?

« on: January 27, 2011, 02:05:56 PM »

Farmer's Alamanac calls for a major blizzard or super storm to impact the Eastern United States anytime between February 12th and February 18th. Of course, no accurate forecast models go back that far, but by the explanation of the storm, it sounds similar to the Blizzard of 1993. Until we get an accurate picture or forecast of the event, what are your thoughts? Think it might happen? Does the Farmer's Almanac have it right?