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THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
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