1111
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread
« on: April 16, 2011, 12:36:29 PM »
The first High Risk of the year is going to be in the effect for Eastern North Carolina.
August 22, 2025, 08:08:11 AM
Show Posts
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
1112
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread
« on: April 15, 2011, 03:56:34 PM »
Two large and dangerous tornadoes currently on the ground in Mississippi and Alabama...tornado emergency for Union, Knoxville, Ralph, and Moundville, AL.
1113
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread
« on: April 14, 2011, 08:18:31 AM »
Just read the Day 2 Convective Outlook, and again, you'll probably be getting much more than that. If the updated Convective Outlook looks even worse, then I'm gonna post a new topic.
Quote
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...SRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS AND OH VALLEY...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS. THE EXIT REGION OF A 75
TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL GULF STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON CREATING VERY
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A BROAD
AREA. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY MORNING IN AL AND MIDDLE TN WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING
SHUNTED EWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY FROM WRN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN CNTRL MS TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN
KY AND WRN TN. THIS IS COMBINED WITH 55 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE 400 TO 500 M2/S2 WITH LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MS AND WRN AL SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL
FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST. 500 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FROM -12C IN SRN MS AND SRN AL TO -16C IN WRN TO
MIDDLE TN. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ERN MS AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
DISCRETE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE EVENT...LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING
WITH A SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. DISCRETE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED
OVER KY AND TN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH IN MS AND AL BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS FOR THE SRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK. MODEL FORECASTS
DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE NAM ISOLATED BUT THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS NUMEROUS STORMS. IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL ISSUE
A MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END EVENT.
1114
General Discussion / Re: Brace yourself for braces
« on: April 13, 2011, 11:26:13 AM »
Your mouth will be sore for a few days as you adjust to the feeling of metal in your mouth. Alternatively, when you get them off, you will feel like you have a giant gap between your lip and your teeth.
As to how they feel, Martin is correct with the barbs. By week two, though, you shouldn't feel a thing.
Your orthodontist will give you a packet about what to eat and what not to eat. Not attacking Martin, but gum is strongly discouraged, as it may pull your braces out. Eating apples is also strongly discouraged, but I never figured out why.
As to how they feel, Martin is correct with the barbs. By week two, though, you shouldn't feel a thing.
Your orthodontist will give you a packet about what to eat and what not to eat. Not attacking Martin, but gum is strongly discouraged, as it may pull your braces out. Eating apples is also strongly discouraged, but I never figured out why.
1115
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread
« on: April 12, 2011, 10:35:03 PM »
Sorry to break it to you, but you look like you're gonna get another dose of severe storms on Friday.
1116
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2011/Severe Wx thread
« on: April 08, 2011, 07:40:14 AM »
It looks like another storm may earn its own thread, but for now, I'll hold off. A very rare Day 3 Moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. As I understand it, Day 3 Moderate Risks are very rare, occurring less than ten times in the history of the SPC.
Just so you know, for Day 3, Moderate is the highest risk you can have.
Just so you know, for Day 3, Moderate is the highest risk you can have.
1117
Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion
« on: April 07, 2011, 01:37:49 PM »
I don't think he was targeting you, bud. Just giving a polite tip to the entire forum.
1118
TWC Fan Art / Re: plane852's Intellistar 2 Concepts
« on: April 06, 2011, 12:42:06 PM »
Here is another graphic: the national synopsis and forecast.
1119
Severe Weather / Re: "Widespread" Severe Threat 4/3 - 4/5
« on: April 05, 2011, 06:16:09 PM »
Well, the final totals are in. A record 1,320 storm reports were filed on this system, 1,201 of which dealt with wind damage. The weather channel explains the significance of these numbers here:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/severe-weather-outbreak-early-april_2011-04-05
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/severe-weather-outbreak-early-april_2011-04-05
1120
Severe Weather / Re: "Widespread" Severe Threat 4/3 - 4/5
« on: April 04, 2011, 06:41:37 PM »
They sounded the sirens here at school just a few minutes ago...the so-called tornado is 15 miles to our Northeast and moving east. It's not coming anywhere NEAR us.
1121
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: April 03, 2011, 09:24:25 PM »
Well, Monday is the big day. But doing it tonight...apart from hail, no tornadoes, really.
1122
General Discussion / Re: Announcing the Weather Network Stream!
« on: April 03, 2011, 07:20:44 PM »
The severe outbreak has now begun. We are tracking severe weather live until around 1 AM tonight.
1123
Severe Weather / Re: "Widespread" Severe Threat 4/3 - 4/5
« on: April 03, 2011, 07:19:33 PM »
Storm initiation has begun in Iowa and Kansas.
1124
The Game Room / Re: "In my pants" Game
« on: April 03, 2011, 12:39:41 PM »
Have you ever seen the rain imp?
1125
The Game Room / Re: Which would you prefer?
« on: April 03, 2011, 12:38:41 PM »
Cider, all the way.
White Castle Blues or Groove Merchant?
White Castle Blues or Groove Merchant?