Messages

1051

Everything Else TWC / Re: Storm Alert Mode 2011!

« on: July 29, 2011, 02:53:33 PM »

I can almost smell a ratings game on behalf on NBC here. I mean, it's only a tropical storm; not really that big of a deal compared to previous storms. Hence, I don't think a lot of people are really paying attention to it (besides those in Texas). But now that Weather Channel is now in Storm Alert mode, HO-HO - suddenly people are gonna watch the weather channel to see some much needed rain come ashore, not 100 mph winds knocking Cantore off his feet.

As for the Storm Alert music, lol. If they do start playing a Storm Alert theme, I will facepalm, big time.

1052

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 29, 2011, 02:37:15 PM »

That's a good point, and I'm sorta guilty of this bloodlust. I will point out, though, that looking at the track and intensity models, my thoughts of intensification and track are not based off of one lone model. The majority of the intensity models do agree in intensification to at least Cat 1 hurricane strength, although the time when it does so is variable, and over half the track models point to a gradual turn to the NW towards the Southeast.

The prediction of location of landfall, I'll admit, is probably nearly impossible to predict at the moment. We'll have to wait and see.

EDIT: Latest model runs agree even more on a track north of Cuba towards the Southeast.

1053

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 29, 2011, 12:07:05 PM »

It's still a little to far out, but the models take 91L into the Carribean and curve it towards the East Coast, where it would make a beeline for N Florida/Georgia/Southern South Carolina. We'll have to see if the models see it curving away or if we could have a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast.

Part of my gut tells me this storm could be the modern-day Hugo, for some reason O_O.

1054

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 29, 2011, 12:02:34 PM »

The outer rain bands of Don are showing up on Brownsville radar. I think we can expect a tornado watch out of the SPC today for Southeast Texas, since there is a slight potential for tornadoes as Don comes ashore.

1055

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 28, 2011, 11:00:27 PM »

Glad you brought that system up: it's been showing some good convection and radar showed some pretty obvious rotation with it...we'll see what NHC says at 2 AM, but I think this little thing could be Emily within a week.

EDIT: It is worth point out that if Emily does form by...let's say Saturday, which my contact and I believe is a reasonable date for it to form into a depression or storm...then we will have had 4 named systems in July - a fairly rare feat - and we will be almost 30 days ahead of the 2010 pace. Tropical Storm Earl last year formed on August 25th.

1056

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 28, 2011, 10:41:25 PM »

Latest analysis from NHC: winds at 50 mph with central pressure at 998 mb. Not forecasted to make landfall as a hurricane.

1057

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 28, 2011, 10:39:48 PM »

Those other members are right: recon found those values not exactly near the center of Don, but close enough. The latest report I heard from a contact of mine said winds near the center sat at 65 mph, and that the central pressure was 995 mb. I haven't verified this report on the wind speed, though.

1058

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 28, 2011, 12:10:59 PM »

I do believe they may move the cone a little farther south later today - despite the fact that all the models told a much more northern path in the latest run.

Since Don is so tiny, it can change intensities rather rapidly, so there is a chance Don may become a hurricane when it makes landfall. It all really depends on how strong the shear gets. The hurricane hunters observed them at 10-15 knots, but forecasts suggest a slight strengthening from that.

1059

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 28, 2011, 10:48:56 AM »

Tropical Storm warning out from Ports Manfield to just west of San Luis Pass now, and a watch extended to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

If there were any model runs that suggested hurricane strength, they're gone now. The most optimistic model I see is the LGEM - and that takes max wind speeds to about 53 knots - just over 60 mph. There just isn't enough time for Don to really get its act together and get better organized. At this point, Hurricane Don seems unlikely.

EDIT: Technical reason for slow intensification - dry air to the west, light/moderate shear for the next two days.

Landfall on the coastline of Texas probably early Saturday morning - around midnight or 1 AM.

1060

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 10:47:39 PM »

I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.

1061

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 04:57:09 PM »

NHC takes Don right into Southern/Southeastern Texas in the next few days. Max winds of 65 mph, and will likely bring some much needed rainfall to region, with rainfall totals at least around 2 inches.

1062

Hurricane Central / Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 04:55:18 PM »

Tropical Storm Don has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. More details to follow.

1063

General Discussion / Re: Your class schedule...

« on: July 26, 2011, 10:12:56 PM »

Fall Semester - Freshman Year (University of North Dakota)

Monday
9:00-9:50 AM: ATSC 110 - Meteorology 1
10:00-10:50 AM: MATH 165 - Calculus 1
12:45 PM - 3:45 PM: Plane reserved on tarmac.

Tuesday
10:00-10:50 AM: MATH 165 - Calculus 1
3:30-4:45 PM: AVIT 100 - Aviation Orientation

Wednesday
9:00-9:50 AM: ATSC 110 - Meteorology 1
12:45 PM - 3:45 PM: Plane reserved on tarmac.

Thursday
10:00-10:50 AM: MATH 165 - Calculus 1
2:00-2:50 PM: ATSC 100 - Atmospheric Sciences Orientation
3:30-5:20 PM: ATSC 110L - Meteorology 1 Lab

Friday
9:00-9:50 AM: ATSC 110 - Meteorology 1
10:00-10:50 AM: MATH 165 - Calculus 1
12:45 PM - 3:45 PM: Plane reserved on tarmac.

1064

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 23, 2011, 12:49:10 AM »

That invest mentioned above is putting out some interesting model runs...almost all the models are saying this storm will hit Cuba and vicinity before heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The BAMM goes all out and points to a landfall in SW Alabama. Too far out to really rely on one, but looking at this data suggests we may have a landfall with this system.

1065

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 21, 2011, 08:34:33 PM »

Nothing to get excited about, but I've been comparing the pace of last year's storms to this year. Don't jump to conclusions on this, because it may change completely, but we are ahead of the pace of 2010 by about 2 weeks. Here are the exact numbers:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Hurricane Alex: June 25th - July 2nd
Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 22nd - 24th
Tropical Storm Colin: August 2nd - 8th

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Arlene: June 29th - July 1st: 4 Days Behind 2010
Tropical Storm Bret: July 17th - PRESENT: 5 Days Ahead of 2010
Tropical Storm Cindy: July 20th - PRESENT: 13 Days Ahead of 2010

Again, nothing to make broad conclusions about, but it's worth making a point about it.