Messages

1036

Programming and Graphics / Re: If Al Roker wasn't enough...

« on: July 30, 2011, 11:58:17 PM »

Holy cow, does it. I remember the episode where they were crab fishing out in a wicked storm, and a really strong wind gust dislodged a steel hook and slammed it right into a guy's nose. The weather is really brutal out there.

1037

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 30, 2011, 11:48:36 PM »

The sad thing is that we are in the dark for the most part. No one has come out and said, "If we default, this is what is going to get suspended/cut/have a spending cap." Which explains why everyone is worried at the moment.

I think they're going to try and cut the unnecessary stuff first - at least, that's what I hope - and hold on to the stuff we really need. This includes spending with defense, and systems used to keep the public safe - this includes the National Weather Service and the Food and Drug Administration.

1038

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 30, 2011, 10:58:32 PM »

Okay, fine. If this isn't the place, then someone take this down. Keep in mind this isn't entirely a political issue, unless someone chooses to make it so. The only political statements I made was a fact regarding bills in Congress - and why they weren't getting past, and the quote. I wasn't planning on taking it any farther.

1039

General Discussion / The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 30, 2011, 10:42:09 PM »

As most of you probably know, the United States government is in danger of defaulting on its national debt of $14.3 trillion dollars and climbing. The Treasury Secretary has stated that he can keep paying the bills that we owe up to August 2nd (that's Tuesday, or 3 days away) before we are in danger of defaulting.

No one really knows what's gonna happen if we DO default, but there is a consensus that our sterling credit rating of AAA will be cut down to AA...something we have never seen happen to us before. This would make us look like a more risky investment to other countries...and they would likely make necessary adjustments, harming our economy. Did I mention that this could send shockwaves throughout our markets and affect other markets? Stocks gave us a preview this week: they made their worst 5-day finish in over a year.

All eyes are on Congress now as they try to raise the debt ceilings, but unfortunately Washington is going nowhere fast. The House - run by Republicans - has passed two resolutions and bills that could address the debt ceiling - but Democrats in the Senate have slammed both down.

What are your thoughts on this? For me, Jon Stewart put it best, regarding this squabble between parties:

"My question to Congress, and a question from many Americans as of tonight is this: do you want out of this relationship so bad, but don't have the balls to leave, so you all decided to act like such giant ***holes that you force us...to break up with you? Because if so, just get the **** out."



"

1040

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 30, 2011, 10:31:15 PM »

It's likely going through a cycle...it's been doing that quite a few times over the last few days. I don't think you really have anything to worry about...you'll likely see a tropical depression tomorrow sometime, possibly early Monday.

1041

General Discussion / Re: Happy Birthday Evan!

« on: July 30, 2011, 03:06:03 PM »

Enjoy your birthday, Evan! 

1042

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 30, 2011, 02:11:45 PM »

Now 80% from NHC. Tropical depression possible in the next couple days.

That scenario for a move to the west is still around, but looking at the models again, they are starting to get more and more consistent with the turn to the northwest. They all generally agree on a landfall near the Windward Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic, before heading northwest. There are a few models that suggest a westward movement, so we'll see what happens.

Early prediction of Cat 3-4

I'm not so sure about that, actually...the models take it up to a borderline Cat 2, but then level it off or weaken it a little bit...assuming because of interaction with the Dominican Republic. Again, not sure. It'll be interesting, though...shear is almost non-existent in its path, and ocean temperatures are more than favorable for development of this thing.

1043

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 30, 2011, 11:05:36 AM »

The National Hurricane Center, I found out this morning, has an amusing sense of humor. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the last tropical discussion on Don, appropriately titled, "The Don is dead."

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

1044

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 29, 2011, 10:41:13 PM »

Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression, and the NHC will continue to follow it for at least another 12 to possibly 24 hours. Otherwise, Don is a goner. This is a sad day for Texas.

1045

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 29, 2011, 10:05:54 PM »

The majority of the models are picking up 91L quite well...and the intensity models are in good agreement that this disturbance should achieve winds of 40 mph 24-36 hours from now.

1046

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 29, 2011, 10:02:24 PM »

Yeah, don't even think the estimated minimum of 2 inches fell in Texas as NHC forecasted. If they want any rain, the storm is gonna have to be a lot stronger.

Weird thing is, the Hurricane Hunters are still picking up wind gusts to 48 mph...which suggests that Don still has his winds going at around 40 sustained. We'll see at the next update.

Here we are, radar estimates show while over 13.5 inches of rain fell in the center of the storm...locally the average rainfall was probably less than an inch. 5 inches of rain was recorded in San Benito, but that's as high as I see it onshore.

1047

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 29, 2011, 05:01:19 PM »

Looking at this a bit further, there's something we all forgot to take into account here: there's a ridge up north that may have an effect on this system as it pushes west. By what I understand...it may force this system to curve away from the United States with no impact...or, if the system continues on a more westerly track than the models suggest, bypass the ridge altogether and continue moving towards the Gulf. We'll see.

Now looking at this, landfall on the United States is now in quite a bit of doubt (in addition to the fact that this thing is still at least a week out from impact). I still agree with the models at the moment, impacting the Caribbean before curving north. Whether it curves north severely or gradually (much like Earl did, which scraped the Outer Banks), is all dependent on that ridge I mentioned.

EDIT: Regarding intensity, other than some moderate wind shear in the storms anticipated path in the next 24 hours, I'm not seeing models detect much shear in the storms path. Ocean temperatures are more than suitable for intensification as well. I'm fairly confident that this system will become at least a hurricane before it impacts any land. How intense it gets, I don't know.

1048

Everything Else TWC / Re: Storm Alert Mode 2011!

« on: July 29, 2011, 04:16:17 PM »

That's the 2005 theme, Trevor. The one in the video is from 2008, and I don't think it's changed from that.

1049

Everything Else TWC / Re: Storm Alert Mode 2011!

« on: July 29, 2011, 03:52:44 PM »

This has got to be a joke. Seriously, TWC? Don doesn't warrant this. Not at all.

EDIT: Hold on, when did you record this? The radar and watches don't match up with the current radar and advisories. Oh, nevermind. Just saw the time.

1050

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 29, 2011, 03:33:34 PM »

SPC's already added a slight risk to Southeastern Texas well before their latest convective outlook is due...implies to me they're planning to issue one in the short term.