Messages

1021

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 08:26:38 PM »

I didn't say anything about Miami brushing this system off...they shouldn't. It poses a threat, I'll acknowledge. But I go again to the fact that we don't have enough information, and it's 5 days out. It's too early to tell. Hence the cone of uncertainty.

Forecasts and models can change over 5 days. That's why I'm hesitant to call anything this early. There are still some models that take this thing off shore, so it could still (barely) miss us.

From the National Hurricane Center's Forecast Discussion:

GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.

1022

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 08:11:46 PM »

I don't think we really need to make predictions on the precise location of a United States landfall just yet. We still don't have enough data, and that event is still 5 days out, if not more.

Current forecasts are for Emily to remain weak as organization and interaction with land hinder with its development. The Dominican Republic will definitely see impacts from this storm. I'm waiting on the latest model runs to see what they say.

1023

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 07:40:38 PM »

Forecast Track


Wind Speed Forecast/Probabilities

This information self-updates.

1024

Hurricane Central / Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 07:32:01 PM »

Tropical Storm Emily has formed, thank goodness. More details to follow.

1025

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 04:14:29 PM »

Tropical Weather Summaries for the month of July:

Atlantic:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THREE NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY.  THIS WAS WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2010) AVERAGE OF
ONE.

Pacific:

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN DURING JULY WAS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THREE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...AND TWO
BECAME HURRICANES...WITH DORA REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ON
AVERAGE THREE TO FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN DURING JULY
...WITH TWO REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY AND ONE BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

1026

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 03:38:15 PM »

I agree whole-heartedly with your statement. We are trying to make a compromise with him so we do not have this issue again.

1027

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 02:12:17 PM »

Again, my fault for jumping to conclusions on the models. I won't make judgments on landfall, track, and intensity this early. My bad.

I do want to clear something up that is starting to mildly annoy me slightly, and that is the criticism Donovan has been getting for his forecast. Since I work in the same division as him, I'll go ahead and explain this entire thing to you guys now:

Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.

I agree with you all that one should wait on these declarations until the NHC says something. But people, I'm wondering how much clearer Donovan has to make it: this was not my call, nor was it Donovan's. It was the directors. Now, I'm going to ask that if you have ANY criticism towards that forecast, that you steer it away from Donovan. It wasn't his personal call. He knows it's not a tropical depression.

NHC downgraded this invest to 80%.

1028

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 12:54:55 PM »

It looks like it. We can hope, of course, but you've gotta factor in the other models and what they say. I still say the U.S. isn't completely clear from this.

1029

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 10:24:54 PM »

Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.

Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.

Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.

1030

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 03:09:17 PM »

By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.

1031

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 02:04:24 PM »

NHC keeping near 100% on this system, and recon is enroute to the system right now to see if it is a tropical depression. That separate batch of storms you're looking at - well, NHC seems to interpret it as 91L as well, which is kinda confusing.

1032

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 11:30:53 AM »

Sorry, Gulf of Mexico. Although there is still a slim possibility future Emily could slip under this trough and ridge to make it into the region, almost all the models now agree on a turn to the NW, impacting parts of the Windward Islands and Hispaniola.

The East Coast will have to wait and see what happens. It all depends on what the models see once this invest becomes a tropical depression. There's a trough - and a fairly strong one at that - being picked up by models in the mid-week moving off the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a chance that this trough could push the system out to see, with the impacts becoming rip currents and high surf for the East Coast. 

1033

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 31, 2011, 11:15:09 AM »

Even though the airlines are still pulling in record profits, the removal of these taxes is gonna force them to lose almost $200 million dollars in profits. If they don't wanna report a decrease in profits from the last quarter, they're gonna jack up the prices.

And printing out more money, as it was pointed out, would weaken our dollar further and contribute to inflation. Big time. Which means prices would go through the roof on everything.

1034

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 01:48:53 AM »

Newest update: near 100% chance of development. A tropical depression now looks imminent. One will likely form tomorrow, and watches and warnings will likely be put up immediately following the declaration of a tropical depression.

1035

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 31, 2011, 12:08:13 AM »

Regarding the FAA, it has been partially shutdown for 8 days. Yet air traffic still continues, for the most part, without a hitch. Out of the 4000 workers suspended, none were air traffic controllers, and very few were federal engineers. Most were at the agency headquarters.

The point I'm making is that this partial shutdown of the FAA is NOT affecting public safety. And even if the government DOES decide to cut some of the funding of the National Weather Service and FDA, I think seeing this action with the FAA tells me they won't do anything that would jeopardize public safety. Also, seeing how a large number of those workers suspended were from headquarters, and not workers at individual airports, I don't think smaller departments of the FDA and NWS will see worker cuts.