Messages

1006

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 06, 2011, 04:39:51 PM »

She's alive...SHE's ALIIIIIIIVE!

Emily has reformed as a tropical depression. Check the first few posts for the updated track and wind forecast.

1007

General Discussion / Re: What are you listening to?

« on: August 05, 2011, 09:00:09 PM »

For some demented reason, a 28 minute version of Macarena by Los Del Rio. 

1008

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 04, 2011, 09:29:45 PM »

Well, even though she's dissipated, NHC is seeing potential for redevelopment in the next 48 hours. Their latest tropical weather outlook.

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

1009

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 04, 2011, 09:00:58 PM »

NOAA released their revised prediction for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season today. Here are the new numbers, compared to the older season. Allow me to remind you how the 2010 season went:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Named Storms: 19
Hurricanes: 12
Major Hurricanes: 5

NOAA's First Forecast - May 19th, 2011
Named Storms: 12-18
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-6

NOAA's Revised Forecast - August 4th, 2011
Named Storms: 14-19
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-5

This implies to me, at least, that if NOAA is right, we may be facing a season just as active as last year.

1010

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 04, 2011, 04:32:59 PM »

Emily has severely degenerated and will no longer be followed by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.

1011

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 04, 2011, 02:59:15 PM »

It looks like Hispaniola is really messing with Emily's organization now...she'll likely turn into a tropical depression in a little bit as she continues to interact with land. There's still potential for reorganization.

1012

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 03, 2011, 05:02:06 PM »

O-ho-ho, this is getting interesting...winds staying at 50 for now, but NHC is now acknowledging a possible United States land threat.

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

1013

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 03, 2011, 04:22:06 PM »

You are not the only one. It's in the triple digits in South Carolina too

EDIT: I have never seen that heat safety tips screen before.  Probably cause it hasn't gotten that hot here.

1014

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 03, 2011, 12:58:06 PM »

Looking at satellite, Emily's center of circulation is now severely exposed. Unless she can really get her act together soon and convection can fire around the center, I am having serious doubts about Emily making it through Hispaniola in one piece.

1015

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 03, 2011, 11:10:21 AM »

Yeah...it's a bit concerning at the moment. While it's still a little too far to jump to conclusions...if Emily continues west, there are a few models that suddenly gain credibility.

1.) The BAM family of models which says Emily will head towards the Gulf of Mexico. This may happen if Emily does not react to the weakness in the subtropical ridge that NHC is betting will send it NWard.

2.) The more concerning solution: the HWRF model, which has now been shifting west with the last few runs. The 12Z model run today puts the center making landfall in Central Florida - near Orlando - and then continuing along the East Coast before impacting just north of Charleston and heading slightly inland towards Myrtle Beach.

Again, too far out to tell. This thing still has a chance of being torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola...and seeing how no more strengthening is now anticipated, she may not survive the trip.

1016

The Game Room / Re: Ban the Person above you

« on: August 02, 2011, 07:26:03 PM »

Banned for even bringing up Hillsborough County.   

1017

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 07:03:45 PM »

Latest satellite imagery shows convection just exploded around Emily's center in the last few hours...and then I got this image sent to me just a few minutes ago. I have no idea what to think about it. 

1018

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 05:41:52 PM »

Donovan showed off his forecast earlier, so I figured I might as well show mine. The following is my model discussion and how my forecast goes by that. And yes, the policies have been resolved. We have to wait for NHC to call a system now; the bosses saw our point.  This is a little long, so mods, if you have to trim it down, go ahead. This is the only time I'm posting my forecast on the forums.

...Model Discussion...
No significant changes have been made in intensity or track forecasts from the 11 AM update.

The 18Z model runs continue to show growing consensus of Emily moving to the NW by 24 hours out...with many models taking the center of the storm directly over Santo Domingo by 36 hours. After this...models split. BAMS and BAMD take the most western route...taking Emily over Cuba and towards the Keys before heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the models take her NW past the Dominican Republic and Haiti towards the Bahamas.

At this point...models vary again...disagreeing how long Emily will maintain it's NW track before turning to the NE. However...at this time...no models currently take the center of Emily over any portion of the East Coast.

Intensity models are currently all over the place...causing great uncertainty in the forecast. Models are in good agreement in the next 24 hours that Emily will intensify gradually...but after 24 hours split into a variety of scenarios. Will not go into details over the specific models...but it is worth mentioning that almost all models have Emily at hurricane strength by 120 hours. Again...it is important to emphasize that interaction with land and forecasted environmental conditions make intensity forecasts difficult.

EDIT: Trimmed down at moderator's request.

1019

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 01:45:31 PM »

The models keep shifting east and east with every run....again, models can change, but I'm starting to doubt more and more that this storm poses a definite direct threat to the U.S. mainland. We're still four days out, though, so let's see.

1020

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:58:10 PM »

Latest model runs from 00Z. All the tracks have taken a rather noticeable jump to the east, quite a few offshore.