Messages

1

General Weather Chat / Re: Farmers' Almanac Winter 2013-2014 Outlook

« on: August 26, 2013, 11:22:21 AM »

What's the different between "piercing cold" and "biting cold?" Neither one sounds fun. 

2

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Erin

« on: August 16, 2013, 12:44:56 PM »

Who would have ever thought this would happen?  I like never would have guessed that this thing would fall apart the way it has. 

One thing's for sure, this hurricane season is everything I thought it would be.  The forecasters were bound to bust eventually after forecasting these above average seasons nearly every year.

Aren't you kind of jumping the gun with that statement? You can't really call this a bust when the season isn't even half over.

3

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: August 08, 2013, 11:49:15 PM »

http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season

So much for the big Atlantic hurricane season this year.  They're already trimming the forecast back a little, with 13-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors.  Of course, the above article points out that it's the landfalls that get noticed and not necessarily the number of storms.  I guess the forecasters feel like it's better to forecast a few extra storms and scale the prediction back as needed.  Better safe than sorry.

Bud, that's still a lot of storms. 

4

Forecasting / Re: Round 4: Tampa, FL

« on: July 30, 2013, 11:47:07 PM »

Vacation starts this week so I will be out for a good chunk. Bowing out of this one. 

5

Forecasting / Re: Round 4: Tampa, FL

« on: July 28, 2013, 10:11:27 PM »

The models keep saying Dorian may flirt with Florida's west coast in the coming days. Maybe the contest will catch the tail end of that? Extreme QPF forecasts!   

Tampa, FL
Monday, July 29, 2013

High: 90
Low: 77
POP: 60%
Precipitation: 0.15"

6

Hurricane Central / Pacific Watch: Tropical Storm Flossie

« on: July 27, 2013, 12:24:35 PM »

Normally I wouldn't bother with any East Pacific storms, but Flossie is worth mentioning, since it looks like she'll have a direct impact on Hawaii around Monday or so as a tropical storm. 

7

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 25, 2013, 07:59:05 PM »

They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all.  It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past.  However, it's only July.

Can you define a "weak" hurricane season? We've now matched the pace of last year for number of storms, and climatologically two storms in July is well above average.

8

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: July 13, 2013, 11:06:24 PM »

Real sad day in America when someone who killed an unarmed child is found not guilty.

There was reasonable doubt on whether he did it, cold blooded, or if it was self-defense. I'm not happy with the verdict, but the way the trial was going, it was certainly not going to favor the prosecution.

9

Forecasting / Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL

« on: July 10, 2013, 09:34:02 PM »

Peoria IL - Thursday, July 11th

High: 84
Low: 60
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00"

10

Forecasting / Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL

« on: July 09, 2013, 11:02:53 PM »

Wednesday, July 10th
High: 85
Low: 65
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00

11

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 07, 2013, 11:53:33 PM »

Looking at this again, I am feeling increasingly pessimistic about this storm. Shear is expected to pick up just as the storm gets close to Hispaniola, and this makes me think of what happened to Emily in 2011.

NHC mentioned it, but I'll say it here - there is the possibility Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low or even completely dissipate before it makes it to Florida.

12

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 07, 2013, 11:07:53 PM »

Oooh, a depression along the Florida coast. How terrifying. 

Regardless, seeing that it slows down, it could be a big flood concern along the Florida coast. We'll see what happens.

13

Forecasting / Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL

« on: July 07, 2013, 08:50:13 PM »

Peoria, IL - July 8th, 2013

High: 89
Low: 73
POP: 80%
Amount: 0.21"

14

General Weather Chat / Re: Storms of the 21st Century

« on: July 06, 2013, 08:10:13 PM »

In no particular order:

1. Hurricane Katrina
2. Hurricane Sandy
3. Super Tornado Outbreak April 25-28
4. El Reno Tornado, May 2013
5. Joplin Tornado, May 2011

15

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 06, 2013, 03:16:05 PM »

It is up to 30% now, and with good SSTs ahead of it and shear expected to weaken in its path, prospects are looking for this thing to develop further and possibly become a depression in the next few days.  This is nice - July is usually a pretty dead month in terms of tropical development.