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Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Debby
« on: June 25, 2012, 05:10:00 AM »
Ugh, got awakened by my weather radio earlier for Tornado Watch #424 which is an extension of #423 (and 423 extended watch #422), but now includes some coastal waters ..
Also, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for waters from to Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20-60 knots and waters from Tarpon Springs to the Suwannee River out 20-60 knots.
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SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 440 AM UNTIL 200
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CROSS CITY
FLORIDA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF AVON PARK FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 423. WATCH NUMBER 423 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
440 AM EDT.
DISCUSSION...WHILE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS MARGINALLY SUBSIDED
ACROSS FL EARLY TODAY WITH THE LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF T.S. DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELL
FORMATION. A PERSISTENT TROPICAL RAIN BAND FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NEWD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS ONE AREA WHERE THESE BRIEF SPIN UPS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS DESTABILIZES FURTHER AND
RESULTS IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST PERSISTENTLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL
STORM.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CARBIN
Also, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for waters from to Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20-60 knots and waters from Tarpon Springs to the Suwannee River out 20-60 knots.
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST
COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY
TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6N...LONGITUDE 85.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 170 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL. STORM MOTION WAS
STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT THIS TIME ARE
INLAND FLOODING AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDES. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
EVENT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GMZ850-853-870-873-251500-
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
346 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 100 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 14 AND 18
FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
TORNADO APPROACHES.
$$