Messages

2281

Programming and Graphics / Re: Official Gustav Storm Alert Prediction Thread

« on: August 30, 2008, 12:22:23 PM »

I'm already in Storm Alert...I've been blasting all three Storm Alert LF themes all day.

I think TWC is going to kick it into full Storm Alert on Sunday at 11 AM ET, when Weekend Now starts.

Also, when does everyone think the inset satellite/radar/track will appear? I think we're going to be seeing that very soon, maybe as early as 1 PM ET today.

2282

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central 2008

« on: August 30, 2008, 06:45:48 AM »

Gustav is now a major hurricane, with winds of 115 MPH, as per a 6 AM EDT update.

5 AM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300857
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT TAKES AIM ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS
STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING CUBA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...81.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

6 AM EDT update:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 300953
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES GUSTAV A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

2283

OCMs & Personalities / Re: "Yeah, let's do that."

« on: August 30, 2008, 12:31:50 AM »

Just now...

Sharon: Now here's Rich with more on Gustav.

Rich: Yeah, let's do that.

2284

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central 2008

« on: August 29, 2008, 10:34:55 PM »

Here is the 11 PM EDT advisory on Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

EDIT: Here is the max wind speed probability chart for Gustav:



By 8 PM Sunday, Gustav is forecast to be a 135 MPH cyclone, making it a Category 4! Needless to say, this storm will have a HUGE impact on the Gulf.

2285

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Cantore on NBCNN

« on: August 29, 2008, 09:53:02 PM »

Darn, didn't get to see it. was Jim in studio? Anyone have any video?

Here's a link to the video on Nightly's site:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#26460649

Thanks, Gary. 

2286

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Cantore on NBCNN

« on: August 29, 2008, 09:17:34 PM »

Darn, didn't get to see it. was Jim in studio? Anyone have any video?

2287

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 29, 2008, 09:10:54 PM »

They've started showing Labor Day openers. And, yes, it's the same opener as they used last year.

2288

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 29, 2008, 08:57:19 PM »

Very sorry to hear about your grandmother, Gary.

Glad to hear you had a good vacation, Mike. I am interested in IS clips.

2289

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 29, 2008, 06:23:18 PM »

Tonight BOTH Stephanie Abrams and Mike Bettes have stepped in on PM Edition.

2290

Everything Else TWC / Re: Whoa!

« on: August 29, 2008, 06:22:28 PM »

You got the videos yet, Gil? I'm really interesting in seeing them.

2291

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 29, 2008, 06:10:11 PM »

Neat. Just saw that York Airport is now the Almanac reporting site on my Hanover IntelliStar. Harrisburg International used to be the reporting site.

EDIT: It turns out the change was actually made two weeks ago, and I just noticed it now.

2292

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central 2008

« on: August 29, 2008, 03:33:56 PM »

Gustav is now a hurricane again:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

2293

OCMs & Personalities / Re: "Yeah, let's do that."

« on: August 28, 2008, 11:02:43 PM »

Sharon: Here's Rich with the latest on Gustav.

Rich: Alright, let's do that.

2294

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 28, 2008, 08:56:47 PM »

So what do you all think the probability of TWC going into Storm Alert for Gustav is? 50%? 75% 90% Higher?

I think it is pretty high, maybe ~80%. Seeing that they've been hyping up this storm since the beginning of the week, it could effect the very same area as Katrina did three years ago, and the fact that it could become a major hurricane once it hits the Gulf is even more of a resion.

BTW, is there severe weather occurring across the midwest tonight? Any bow echoes or squall lines out there?? 

2295

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central 2008

« on: August 28, 2008, 07:42:06 PM »

Here is the 8 PM ET advisory for Gustav:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282337
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...
485 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  KINGSTON RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
49 MPH...80 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ON JAMAICA IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN