Messages

976

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 06, 2013, 04:59:40 PM »

Winds up to 65mph as of 5pm Advisory.

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

977

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 06, 2013, 02:38:55 PM »

What a wild time to be in FL right about now. All FL folks here and in general I hope are staying safe and out of the water although that should come with common sense not to be out there anyway.

I'm still impressed at how rapidly Andrea got itself together overnight into today. RECON did find max outbound flight level winds as high as 71 kts (80 mph rounded off).

978

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 06, 2013, 07:46:09 AM »

I'm tellin' ya. You'll be surprised how often the GFS can pick up on tropical disturbances. Not all the time it is right, but most of the time it is. 

Agreed. I notice that quite a bit.

Yeah I posted it earlier in the general thread. Though high shear, I wonder how much more this can intensify, and if it does, how would that effect its outcome here.

Apparently a lot Craig, I woke this morning to a 60mph TS with a 997mb pressure.


...ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING...

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 27.7°N 85.1°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

979

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: June 05, 2013, 08:13:23 PM »

72, Cloudy
We had a really good tropical downpour the past hour, I suspect Flash Flood Warnings will be issued here very soon if you look at the radar below. The rain is nearly stationary.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FFC&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

NOTE: This heavy rain isn't from T.S. Andrea, it's from a combination of a stalled cold front and a trough of low pressure situated over NW GA into E. TN.

980

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 05, 2013, 08:05:32 PM »

Sidenote: Score 1 to the GFS for sniffing this puppy out 2 weeks in advance.

981

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 05, 2013, 06:01:15 PM »

Code: [Select]

6:00 PM EDT Wed Jun 5
Location: 25.3°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
It's hard to see on this map, but Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are in effect from FL to the Carolinas.

Code: [Select]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


982

Hurricane Central / Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 05, 2013, 05:36:23 PM »

I'm gonna pull the trigger early, but the writing looks to be on the wall...

Code: [Select]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052126
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,

983

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 05, 2013, 05:03:56 PM »

RECON has been finding TS force winds in Invest 91L around the COC, pressure has dropped to around 1004-1005mb.

Now we just wait and see if we get TD #1 or Andrea, I'm fairly confident one or the other will occur (more so on the latter than the former).

984

Local Forecast / Re: TWC Songs you've heard in other places

« on: June 05, 2013, 02:47:32 PM »

Heard "Classic Battle" by Sam Spence on a Quicken Loans Commercial.

985

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 05, 2013, 01:45:53 PM »

CODE RED - 60% Chance of development
RECON Flight still scheduled for this afternoon

* My guess is they will find something to suggest TD status.  (That's just my opinion though)

Code: [Select]

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

986

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 05, 2013, 08:46:58 AM »

Up to 50% this morning, visually on satellite it looks a lot better organized with that appears to be more convection showing up around the center, but we all know how deceiving that can be...*cough* *cough* Irene, Ernesto, (frustrated sigh) Issac...

Code: [Select]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

987

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 04, 2013, 08:51:45 PM »

I'm happy whether it's Andrea, TD #1 or it stays Invest 91L. I just hope we can get some rain from it over here.

988

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 04, 2013, 03:35:21 PM »

Up to 40% this afternoon

Code: [Select]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Below is my first preliminary storm track map along w/ an approx. landfall point and possible max wind speeds.

989

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 03, 2013, 08:51:33 PM »

Upgraded to CODE ORANGE.

Code: [Select]

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

990

Local Forecast / Re: Russ Freeman/The Rippingtons

« on: June 03, 2013, 12:50:50 PM »

BUMP

I just wanted to update my list because there were songs I forgot I couldn't remember off the top of my head back at the time.

These are all my favorites (The ones in blue bold are my top 10; the ones in red round out my top 20) 
St. Tropez
Vienna
Big Sky
Cast A Spell
I Watched Her Walk Away
Dream of the Sirens
Open All Night
Destiny
Weekend In Monaco
First Time I Saw Her
Where The Road Will Lead Us
Mirage
One Ocean Way
Moonlighting
Oceansong
Welcome To St. James Club
Urban Wanderer
Love Child
Let's Stay Together
Tourist In Paradise
Jupiter's Child
Cicada
Dreams
Faith
Kilimanjaro
Life In the Tropics
Wild Card
Lovechild
Mesmerized
True Companion
Paris Groove
Riviera Jam
She Likes to Watch
Rue Paradis
Who's Holding Her Now?

EDIT: Just like last time I forgot another one, "Moonlight"