Messages

961

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: June 13, 2013, 07:29:44 PM »

88 Mostly Cloudy

TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT FOR METRO ATLANTA

962

Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013

« on: June 13, 2013, 03:40:14 PM »

In my eyes, it should be both.  Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather.  For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk.  However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready. 

Agreed, I think to an extent having the risk areas works in the same mindset that the general public seems to have about low/high end tornadoes and hurricanes thinking that just because one is rated higher/lower than another one, that must automatically mean it's going to worse or not as bad.

I agree that the risk areas were misplaced, and a lot of the severe weather occurred outside the high risk area. I've been tracking this system from the start. I have to say, it was poorly modeled from the start. Every model run was different in the placement of everything. It kept changing. But that's what happens in these very dynamical situations. Not being argumentative, but I still think the "high risk" is based on probability, not severity. They did forecast some significant severe wx. to occur, which didn't end of happening. It's easier for the SPC forecast the probability of a severe weather outbreak than it is the severity of it. We can't really predict exactly how strong the tornadoes, how the large the hail, or how strong the wind will be in a particular thunderstorm, but we better predict the probability of some type of severe weather to occur, whether significant or not.

I think that's strictly the way it should be. Severe weather is severe weather, like you said it's not possible to accurately predict exactly how strong a tornado, hail or wind from thunderstorms will be.

Apparently, TWC isn't the only place weather sensationalism exists.  The SPC's following suit IMHO. I remember a time when a high risk meant something out of the ordinary would happen.  Not your typical springtime storms, but generally a vicious tornado outbreak.  I'm not aware of such a risk level having been issued for straight-line winds very many times.

I could use some clarification here. Maybe it's the way I'm reading it, but these parts of your post sounds a bit contradictory. At first you mentioned how you remember high risk being issued if something out of the ordinary would happen, yet at the end you said you aren't aware of many high risks being issued for damaging winds. Wouldn't that technically mean at the time issuing the high risk had a validation for being issued? I mean it would have to have been expected to be something out of the ordinary as you mentioned, not your typical line of damaging winds right?

963

Forecasting / Re: Round 2: Hartford, CT

« on: June 12, 2013, 11:30:36 PM »

Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Thursday, June 13, 2013
My Forecast High: 62°F
My Forecast Low: 54°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 1.50"

964

Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013

« on: June 12, 2013, 12:53:16 PM »

HIGH RISK hatched today for IL and IN. (Includes the cities of Chicago and Fort Wayne)

Code: [Select]

SPC AC 121626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
   ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
   MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
   FROM EASTERN IOWA TO WESTERN OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST AND PARTS OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT AND A PART OF
   NERN WY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT AND INTENSIFYING
   SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS WELL
   AS SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES.

   ...ERN IA/NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SRN
   WI AND SWRN LOWER MI...

   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS HAVE CONGEALED AHEAD OF A
   COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID
   LEVEL WLY FLOW CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AN
   EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING AND
   DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
   LOWER 70S F AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE MIDWEST FROM IA EAST ACROSS IL/IND/OH. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   THIS SAME REGION INDICATE A PRONOUNCED EML ADVECTING EAST FROM THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM.

   DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEGREE OF
   HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDING SURFACE CYCLONE
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
   FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
   DEEP CONVECTION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL MAY PRECEDE TRULY
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN IA ACROSS SRN WI TO LOWER
   MI. GIVEN DEGREE OF CAPPING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
   POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG STORM-RELATIVELY HELICITY /SRH/. ANY
   CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY
   ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
   SHEAR OF 35-55KT. POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED
   DURING THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT PHASE /21Z-00Z/ NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
   WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST HIGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
   SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.

   ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE RIPPLING EAST
   ALONG THE WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...IN CONCERT WITH 50-60KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO/ACROSS THE
   DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS UPSCALE PROGRESSIVE MCS
   /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
   ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING...AND DEPICTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY HIGH
   CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS
   SHOWING MCS/DERECHO EVOLUTION WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS. WRF-ARW SIMULATION FROM 00Z TAKES THE APEX OF THE
   PROGRESSIVE MCS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT IN UNDER 6 HOURS WITH A
   FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN AND
   AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH HIGH WINDS
   POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AS WELL A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
   LINE/QLCS.

   ...OH EAST TO EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST...
   WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING
   ACROSS FROM OH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO EAST COAST. SOME
   MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEXES DEVELOPING FROM INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN
   SUBTLE/WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE
   TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THESE PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.

   ...MT/NERN WY...
   STRONG IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRENGTHENING SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A NUMBER OF SUPERCELL
   STORMS POSING BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
   ALSO EVOLVE FROM INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   STORM UPDRAFT LAYER.

   ..CARBIN/SMITH/BUNTING.. 06/12/2013

965

Forecasting / Re: Round 2: Hartford, CT

« on: June 11, 2013, 11:38:32 PM »

Hartford, CT (KBDL) REVISION
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
My Forecast High: 76°F
My Forecast Low: 55°F
Chance of Precip: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.10"

966

TWC Fan Art / Re: Weatherlover's Artwork

« on: June 10, 2013, 09:32:19 PM »

Non TWC Related - A new intro I'll be using this summer. Look at the beginning of this video to see it. It's still a little rough, but it's getting there. It was made in After Effects.

IntelliStar - June 24, 2010 4:48am

967

Forecasting / Re: Round 2: Hartford, CT

« on: June 10, 2013, 08:25:22 PM »

Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
My Forecast High: 74°F
My Forecast Low: 60°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.61"

968

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: June 09, 2013, 11:09:08 PM »

Tavores, it's supposed to be letterboxed, so I have no idea why they are even doing that. WTSP letterboxes their newscasts for SD, and in fact, they were letterboxing on SD even under the previous Gannett package

Well on the actual NBC channel in SD it is letterboxed. (as it always has been)



I hate to say it, but it's gotta be laziness on their part not to be letterboxing their sister channel in the same way.

969

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: June 09, 2013, 10:36:30 PM »

Here's a great example of a channel being SD Fail Safe...

This is the HD feed (ch. 813) from myatltv (sister station to our NBC affiliate; formerly theWB) looks perfectly fine right?

The problem lies on the SD feed which is ch. 13. It's been cropped or stretched, either way done terribly.


THIS is the reason I hate watching channels that are available in HD in SD, you get crap like this. Couldn't they had just letterboxed it instead?

970

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: June 09, 2013, 07:15:29 PM »

76°F Mostly Cloudy

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING

971

Forecasting / Re: Round 2: Hartford, CT

« on: June 09, 2013, 06:34:05 PM »

Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Monday, June 10, 2013
My Forecast High: 78°F
My Forecast Low: 56°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 1.45"

972

TWC Fan Art / Re: Weatherlover's Artwork

« on: June 08, 2013, 10:46:24 AM »

I bet this will be happening in the future (surprised it hasn't already)

973

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 07, 2013, 08:33:09 AM »

Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)

Looks like the NHC has downgraded the Invest to 0% but i won't be surprised if it picks up steam sometime this weekend.

I would give it another week before it can do much of anything. Wind Shear is strong out ahead of it, I don't think it will relax enough this weekend to help it out. If it gets it's act together the track is very interesting. Looking at the weather underground image below, it's not certain whether it would make for an east coaster or a GOM storm. All of this is just hypothetical of course.




Hurricane Fran (1996) and Hurricane Frances (2004) look like decent track analogs so far. (NOT strength-wise, we gotta get a storm first before speculating on that)

974

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: June 06, 2013, 11:10:15 PM »

Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)

Little Tidbit here: This tropical wave originated from the coast of Africa as a Cape Verde Wave! Highly unusual to see tropical waves developing from the Cape Verde this early in the season.

Code: [Select]

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


975

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Andrea

« on: June 06, 2013, 05:50:53 PM »

Wow, Andrea made landfall not far from where I said it would a couple of days ago. (Near Cross City, FL)