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901

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 10, 2013, 04:40:52 PM »

Last nail jammed into the coffin. What a short lived and pathetic storm. It never could catch a break.

...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...

5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 10
Location: 16.5°N 73.7°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FINAL ADVISORY

902

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 10, 2013, 12:45:19 PM »

Here are my current thoughts.

I stopped at Friday Morning because that's where my uncertainty kicks in. Chantal (or whatever is left of it) could head into the G.O.M or it could still head towards the SE coast. I'm leaning towards the Gulf because it looks like a Gulf landfall is increasing.

903

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 10, 2013, 08:58:07 AM »

Quote from: TWCToday on July 10, 2013, 12:24:29 AM

This thing is not a 60mph tropical storm. Hurricane Hunters couldn't even find a center tonight much less winds that high. This storm is going to have to fight to keep from being torn apart as it passes over the islands. Even NHC said in their discussion it was a "generous" forecast. Model forecasts could be affected too without an exact fix on the center. Not saying it won't survive or restrengthen but its pretty pathetic looking right now.

I believe it already is, the past few days there seemed to be some decent agreement on where Chantal was going even in the long range, now this morning, model guidance are diverging greatly in the long range. About half want to take Chantal to the GOM (in the direction of Texas) and another half want to take Chantal up to the FL/GA/SC coast.

If there's anything left of Chantal once it's past Cuba, the track from the NHC is interesting. Right now they're going for a GA coast landfall. I might be wrong, but I think Hurricane David (1979) was the last tropical system to make landfall on the GA coast when it hit Savannah.

A landfall on the GA coast is very rare.

904

Forecasting / Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL

« on: July 09, 2013, 10:17:15 PM »

Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Forecast High: 85°F
Forecast Low: 67°F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Precipitation Amount: 0.42"

905

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: July 09, 2013, 10:08:09 PM »

Quote from: Metarvo on July 09, 2013, 09:41:14 PM

Quote
the company changed its name to the Weather Co. from the Weather Channel late last year.

Does this by any chance explain why my DirecTV unit now uses WEA (rather than TWC as in times past) as the abbreviation for the channel? I suspected something was up. At least "weather" is still in the name, but it still makes me wonder what's coming next.

Comcast made the same change recently. Doesn't make any sense to me regardless of the reason.

906

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 09, 2013, 04:55:33 PM »

Chantal certainly has strengthened a lot since last night. It was a 50 mph TS during the 11pm update, now as of 2pm (new advisory coming out soon) it's up to 65 mph. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chantal make a very brief run at a 75 mph Cat 1 hurricane before it hits the shredder. We'll see if that happens over next 24 hours.

907

TWC Today News / Re: New Music Section

« on: July 09, 2013, 02:59:36 PM »

Quote from: twcclassics on July 09, 2013, 10:22:46 AM

Quote from: gt1racerlHDl on July 08, 2013, 09:21:06 PM
If your video gets tagged by a copyright holder you can delete the video which is possibly the easiest thing to do to avoid a copyright strike.
Wow, I've never heard of that. I thought once you uploaded a copyrighted video, you were dinged and there was no recourse.

I have 4 pages of copyright tags on videos and my account has been and still is in good standing.

908

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: July 09, 2013, 02:55:35 PM »

Quote from: jtmal0723 on July 09, 2013, 08:57:55 AM

I just ran across this, and I went "wtf?": http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/07/04/condom-challenge-has-teens-risking-life/

I've seen one of those YT videos of this and all I can say is

I know when you're a teen you like to experiment with dumb s

t, but this is beyond sanity, I really don't get the appeal of this. Is it supposed to be sexy?

Definitely makes the Cinnamon challenge look like child's play in comparison.

909

Forecasting / Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL

« on: July 08, 2013, 11:58:10 PM »

Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Forecast High: 89°F
Forecast Low: 72°F
Chance of Precipitation: 60%
Precipitation Amount: 0.44"

910

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 08, 2013, 06:40:51 PM »

What an interesting change in model guidance today. There's definitely been a westward trend taking place from 24 hrs. ago. In fact, quite a few models make a hard left turn into the northern Gulf once past the East Coast of FL.

If the westward trend continues, Hispanola might become a non-factor in Chantal's demise. Wind shear and Cuba would still be an issue though, in addition, Chantal won't slow down! Moving at 26 mph isn't going allow for Chantal to intensify efficiently, it needs to be moving more in the 10-15 mph range.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013.png

The intensity forecast is quite a shift as well, before it was expected to remain on a down spiral after about 36 hrs, now about 96 hrs out it's on the upswing again. Some a lot more bullish than others.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

911

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 08, 2013, 09:48:34 AM »

06z GFS hints at a potential "Dorian" by this time next week. At the very end of the run it takes the system into TX/OK. I didn't see the 18z or 00z run yesterday so I can't say whether this has been consistent, but I know the 12z run yesterday showed something similar.

912

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Chantal

« on: July 08, 2013, 09:27:49 AM »

Quote from: WeatherWitness on July 08, 2013, 12:56:40 AM

You guys don't need the rain. We need the rain.

lol, believe me when I say I'm not begging or asking for it to come this way. I'm sure if Florida could turn into a sponge they would squeeze all the feet of rain right onto your area. They DEFINITELY don't want any Chantal coming their way.