Messages

871

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 25, 2013, 10:51:25 PM »

...DORIAN A LITTLE WEAKER...

11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 25
Location: 16.6°N 39.6°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC track is slightly further south and west than previously. In addition the forecasted wind intensities has been lowered from that fairly generous 70 mph they were forecasting for days 4-5. The highest they're going now in that range is 60 mph.

872

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 25, 2013, 02:50:56 PM »

They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all.  It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past.  However, it's only July.

That will become a little more clear after this weekend into next week. I put it at a 50/50 shot though.

873

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 24, 2013, 11:13:51 PM »

Dorian is holding steady at 50 mph as of the 11pm advisory. According to the discussion for this advisory, the NHC is no longer concerned about Dorian briefly weakening from SSTs, in fact they highlight SSTs have warmed up the past few days in the area Dorian is heading into, coupled into it's swift movement at 20 mph, upwelling is becoming less likely as well.

As of the 11pm advisory, the NHC is forecasting steady, then gradual strengthening to a 65 mph tropical storm as it gets within reach of the Bahamas by Day 5.

Code: [Select]

AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE
WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  IN
ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND
INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5.  THIS
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW
HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.1N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.9N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

874

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 24, 2013, 01:43:05 PM »

12z GFS is VERY excited about Dorian. It keeps it robust it's entire trip through the Atlantic. This run suggests no United States Landfall, but it gets close...
Loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html

I on the other hand don't share the same enthusiasm the GFS does right now.

875

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 24, 2013, 01:33:34 PM »

Another invest being monitored...

Code: [Select]

1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

876

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 24, 2013, 10:54:51 AM »

DORIAN
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

877

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 24, 2013, 10:39:45 AM »

Unless you got an advance copy of the 11:00 advisory, I think you're jumping the gun a little bit.  Who's to say it's going to become a tropical storm on the #2 advisory?  Or #3?  This one apparently has a rough road ahead of it, fast-moving, dry air...

It's not jumping the gun because it's already been renamed. Usually when they rename an invest or TD it will be updated in the next advisory.

In fact if you check the NHC website right now they have already started updating their page to DORIAN ahead of the advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DORIAN

is there a chance the dry air ahead of soon to be Dorian would move out of the way? if so i wonder how strong Dorian would get.

Alex, there's actually been a decrease in dry air out ahead and north of Dorian this month. It's still there, but it's not as heavily concentrated like it was a few weeks ago so I don't don't believe the dry air will be the issue, however wind shear and cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) Dorian is traveling into likely will cause problems in the long term.

878

Hurricane Central / Tropical Storm Dorian

« on: July 24, 2013, 10:13:52 AM »

I know it's early, but we have our Dorian. What a beauty!

AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,

879

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 23, 2013, 11:25:17 PM »

Up to 70% as of 11pm update, we might have our TD by tomorrow according to the discussion for 11pm.

Personally, I don't see much coming out of this at all. 

880

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 23, 2013, 07:29:28 PM »

60% Chance

Code: [Select]

1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

881

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: July 23, 2013, 09:00:43 AM »

72°F Mostly Cloudy

Looks like we got some Ridge Riders heading my way. That should be interesting because it's been a while since we've had a complex of thunderstorms let alone two heading in my direction. The first one is in AL now heading ESE.

882

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2013

« on: July 22, 2013, 08:58:17 PM »

Invest 98L - 30% Chance of Development

Code: [Select]

1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Current Model Guidance Tracks (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013.png

Current Intensity Forecast (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013_inten.png

883

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: July 22, 2013, 12:20:24 PM »

This is old news, but I was surprised by it because I didn't know an entire city could do this!

Detroit Files for Bankruptcy; Largest US City to Do So
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/22/detroit-bankruptcy-how-fast-will-it-go/2574013/

Also the Royal Baby will be here soon...Kate Middleton, Duchess of Cambridge went into labor this morning. Will there be a future KING or QUEEN?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-royal-baby-20130722,0,7314512.story

884

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: July 20, 2013, 04:03:55 PM »

81°F Cloudy with thunder

The airport is getting pounded right now. The storms have been firing up there for over an hour now and they seem to be stationary, very little movement north.

885

Emulator Videos / Re: Weatherlover's Emulations

« on: July 20, 2013, 02:00:57 PM »

WeatherSTAR XL v1 Emulation - Regional Maps (Done in Photoshop)