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Messages - toxictwister00

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526
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 13, 2014, 06:14:15 PM »
I fared out about the same with this storm as I did with the January 28th event (or Winter Storm Leon as TWC called it)

For me I had 3 inches (this includes the 2 inches of sleet/1 inch of snow)

Right now there's still 200,000 Georgians w/o power, at the peak of the storm there were over half a million (513,000) that lost their power. 75% of those folks were in Augusta, GA alone. :o

527
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 13, 2014, 06:37:12 AM »
29° with moderate snow/fog. The backend of this band looks the heaviest (30+dbz) showing up and there's another lighter band behind that!  :thrilled:  :D

528
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 12, 2014, 11:18:55 AM »
Boy, talk about dodging a bullet. The heavy sleet we had for several hours this morning saved us from a long duration of freezing rain. I think we only accumulated about 1/10th inch, the southside of town where the airport is was not so lucky. On average, 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice has accumulated down there and a large number of power outages are in that area on south. There's over 100,000 Georgians without power as I type this. I know had we gotten the ice accumulations the airport did I would without a doubt be sitting in the dark right now. We also accumulated around 2 inches of sleet! :thrilled:

Right now we're getting a light, steady snowfall, the deformation band is expected to pass right over us tonight and depart early Thursday morning. I can't wait! :D :dance:

529
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 12, 2014, 06:18:10 AM »
29.3°F Heavy Sleet/Windy

It's really pouring down and has accumulated everywhere! I've never seen sleet come down like this before. :o You could easily mistake it for snow at first glance.

530
The Game Room / Re: Which would you prefer?
« on: February 11, 2014, 09:42:45 PM »
Snow

Sleetstorm or Hailstorm?

531
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 11, 2014, 05:52:39 PM »
Parts of N. GA mountains could accumulate up to a foot of snow! WOW! :thrilled: My totals have been bumped up in the 2-5 inch range w/ .50 inch of ice expected.

Here's the forecast disco that mentions this. As you can tell right from the beginning, the crew at the NWS have been tirelessly working hard all day to keep folks abreast of this potentially dangerous storm. It's long, but it's an excellent read and clearly explains how complex and unusual this storm system is. :yes:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

VERY SORRY TO BE SO LATE WITH THIS BUT LOTS OF COORDINATION AND
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING PRODUCED QUITE THE SWATH OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING ROSE ABOVE BY MID MORNING AND ARE NOW
IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL TO MELT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WITHIN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS
WHICH MOVED THROUGH.
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK CURRENTLY AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH EVEN SOME NVA WORKING INTO THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR FOR THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BUT OVERALL POP TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD.

MODEL CHANGES...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH TRENDS BEING A COLDER
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH BRINGS IN MID 20S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN DEVELOPING WEDGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENTIRE
DIFFERENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER
30S WOULD STILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT NOT A HISTORIC
ONE. NAM12 IS HIGHER WITH ITS TEMPS BUT STILL HAS AREAS RIGHT
AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IMPACTS. BASED ON
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF DEVELOPING CAD WEDGES AND THE EXPECTED QPF FROM
WPC...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE DIRE PREDICTIONS OF A HALF AND INCH
OF ICE TO CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BIGGEST CHANGE PERHAPS IS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH NOW 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH 10 INCHES TO PERHAPS A FOOT
POSSIBLE IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO INCREASE THE TOTALS FOR THE
NORTH ATLANTA METRO WITH AN INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WAS
USING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH UTILIZING GIVEN WPC QPF. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE MORE MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS.

WRAP AROUND STILL LOOKS SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS STORM BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST ALL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT SOME
OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING BUT IF DEFORMATION AXIS IS SLOWER TO
LIFT OUT...SNOW TOTALS WOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED.


IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THE ABOVE...WINDS WILL ALSO PROVE TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS CREATING HAVOC WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
AND ICE STORM WARNINGS. TREES WILL BE EASILY SNAPPED OR TOPPLED
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...ICE AND WINDS. POWERLINES WILL
ALSO BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AND SOME RESIDENTS WILL BE WITHOUT
POWER FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS UP TO A WEEK.


IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EFFECTS FORM THIS STORM WILL
NOT END WITH THE PRECIP. AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST FOUND OUT
WITH THE LAST STORM...MELTING OF ICE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION ON AREA INTERSTATES AS
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE FALL FROM ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


DEESE

532
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 11, 2014, 05:15:53 PM »
An Ice Storm Warning has replaced the Winter Storm Warning that was in effect for areas south of I-20 (South ATL metro) Southside of Atlanta on eastward to August, GA appears to be the "ground zero" if you will for this crippling icestorm.

I hope folks south of me are able to stay safe and warm from the dangerous ice. :( Having personally been through a few icestorms myself in Atlanta I can assure you if you've never been through one, it's no joke and it ain't as pretty to deal with as it looks especially if you're stuck inside with no power. :no:

The NWS and the local media have been using words/phrases such as: Crippling, Catastrophic, and Historic Proportions to describe how dangerous this storm is expected to be. I'm glad they are, folks need to realize just how serious this really is.

533
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 10, 2014, 06:34:43 PM »
Our NWS office is doing a superb job staying on top of this. They shared their concern about the ice potential in Atlanta, stating in their forecast discussion that the ice could be the worst Atlanta has seen in 10-20 years! :o

EDIT: Has anyone here seen the wild snowfall map the Euro was depicting? It showed 14 inches of snow here. It's too bad those snowfall maps also include sleet and ice accumulations otherwise Atlanta would have DESTROYED it's all time record snowfall of 10.3 inches set back in January 23, 1940. Atlanta has yet to document a 1 footer which is a bit disappointing considering quite a few Southern cities have... :(

EDIT #2: Also our Governor has already declared a State of Emergency for Atlanta/North Georgia; National Guard is already on standby.
-Road treatment is beginning as of right now.
-Schools/Colleges/Businesses are shutting down faster than falling dominoes.
-The stores are mobbed! I went to a local Walmart near my house and it was very busy.

534
Local Forecast / Re: Weather STAR XL Replaced
« on: February 10, 2014, 08:24:25 AM »
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAsAH4tFCCk


It's a shame this wasn't used for folks who actually had the IS in the first place on the SD feed when this graphical version of the IS2 was still relevant a few years ago. For me personally it would have made up for not having the IS2 since at least it's more appealing to look at. However, I think Mike explained why that probably didn't happen.

535
General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove
« on: February 09, 2014, 10:46:06 PM »
I'm getting a good vibe that this winter storm could be one I'll be talking about for years to come... :D I don't even remember if ever I have been through a winter storm that could last as long as this one. :thrilled:


536
Winter Weather / Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 09, 2014, 10:32:11 PM »
Another major winter storm is expected to slam and hammer the Southern CONUS hard and possibly slam folks along the Eastern seaboard as well.

Model guidance paints an ominous picture for folks in GA/SC/NC/VA. These states could be the hardest hit by snow and/or ice. Please note this is a long duration event; 24-36+ hours of wintry precipitation from TX to VA which is coming in two rounds, the second round model guidance has recently been trying to phase and amplify which has been causing the storm system to bomb as it travels up the East Coast.

Personal note:
It shouldn't come as no surprise Atlanta became the national spotlight for the disastrous traffic jam just two weeks ago due in part to city/state public officials, school districts, mayor/governor dropping the ball by not prepping adequately enough in time. I can tell you after the scrutiny they suffered from the public, the way they're going about this storm is a complete 180 degree turn around. There's too much to name, but so far from what I've heard and seen things should go much more smoothly this go around. I really hope they have woken up for their sake, what happened here was a complete embarrassment and shameful imo. :angry:

The NWS here is forecasting possibly 1-3 inches for Atlanta and Northwest GA; 3-6 inches (locally higher) for Northeast GA per the Winter Storm Watch which was recently updated an hour ago.

If you're going to be directly affected by this storm, please feel free to post about what's happening in your backyard if you can. :thumbsup:

537
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: February 09, 2014, 05:47:10 PM »
Saturday I believe there was no extended live coverage and TWC went to reality shows at 2pm.

Today TWC was live 4:30am-2pm and they are back live 5pm-9pm.

"Kim Cunningham - Join me and Nick Walker 5-9pm live tonight with updates on Winter Storms Orion and now Pax! Winter storm watches up for the south again!!"

Ok, thanks.

Good call, it could be worse conditions for some Southern cities compared to 2 weeks ago. They should definitely be covering it not just today, but hopefully all week.

538
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: February 09, 2014, 03:30:29 PM »
Any announced plans to do extended live coverage this week for Winter Storm Pax?

539
Forecasting / Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
« on: February 09, 2014, 08:25:14 AM »
If you live anywhere from AR over to NC, you need to start prepping for what will be another major winter storm to strike the Southern CONUS with snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Winter Storm Watches are already flying up for parts of the South for the first round, yes there are two separate rounds.

For my area, the first round is from Monday night into Tuesday night. 1-2 inches of snow is expected.
The second round could possibly be more ominous as model guidance suggests an icy mix setup. This will be from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Models such as the Canadian and the European models suggest significant ice will accumulate here. Even the 6z GFS model suggests a long duration icing event. YIKES!

We haven't had a significant icestorm in the Atlanta metro area since January 28-29, 2005! So, unfortunately, we are WELL overdue for another.

540
Emulator Videos / Re: Weatherlover's Emulations
« on: February 05, 2014, 09:19:40 PM »
These are some of the 4000 emulator uh I mean "simulator" videos I've recorded over the past week. Last week was my first time using the newest version of it and I love it! The only problem I'm having now is the Travel Cities Forecast doesn't work, I'll have to check into that and see if it's something I'm doing wrong.

My first recorded video
January 26, 2014 (Two Days Before Snow Jam 2014) - Dan Chandler Narration
WeatherSTAR4000 Simulator - January 26, 2014 7:27pm


January 28, 2014 (Snow Jam 2014) - Dan Chandler Narration
WeatherSTAR4000 Simulator - January 28, 2014


February 5, 2014
WeatherSTAR4000 Simulator - February 5, 2014

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