Messages

4186

Hurricane Central / Re: 97L- Future Fiona

« on: August 28, 2010, 06:29:50 PM »

This is 240 hrs out and I know the models will continue to change, but Savannah,GA and Charleston, SC might wanna brace themselves this could be another Katrina like catastrophe if this scenario actually played out. Hopefully that won't be the case, but I know the GA coast is due for a major hurricane andl it's a scary thing to see since it's been on all runs of the ECMWF today trending westward for a GA/SC hit

4187

Hurricane Central / Re: 97L- Future Fiona

« on: August 28, 2010, 09:45:38 AM »

Here's my early thoughts on Invest 97L (Possibly Future Fiona)

4188

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Earl- Storm Train

« on: August 28, 2010, 09:39:38 AM »

I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.

It is, but it's poorly organized if you ask me. Anyways here's my thinking on Earl. (subject to change)

EDIT: Has anyone noticed that Earl looks like not only is it moving quickly due west, but it also seems to be wobbling SW as well?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

4189

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Earl- Storm Train

« on: August 28, 2010, 07:43:50 AM »

Well more of a westward shift today

Honestly I think the NHC is curving Earl north too quickly and I still don't see it getting to hurricane status as early as tomorrow morning as they're indicating.

4190

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Danielle

« on: August 27, 2010, 07:58:03 PM »

Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb.  A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.

TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?

They way TWC hyped it you might have gotten that impression. Not sure why they chose to harp Bermuda for this. Guess they wanted to keep interest up for a fish storm.

Hmm, that could be the case. I know I recall hearing Vivian saying they were under a Hurricane Watch during the tropical update for the 5pm advisory unless she misspoke.

4191

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Danielle

« on: August 27, 2010, 06:23:36 PM »

Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb.  A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.

TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?

4192

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Danielle

« on: August 27, 2010, 03:52:12 PM »

Wow, I was surprised to see Danielle intensify into a Cat 4 overnight like it did since it was in some moderate shear yesterday and it wasn't looking that good on the southside.

4193

Hurricane Central / Re: 97L- Future Fiona

« on: August 26, 2010, 08:22:37 PM »

60% Chance - Code RED

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

4194

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Poll: Favorite OCM?

« on: August 26, 2010, 03:56:30 PM »

Jim Cantore by FAR. He has always been my favorite OCM and will until he retires. I like that he is extremely into the weather and gets excited when severe weather strikes. I also like to watch his live reports when he's in a hurricane/extreme weather event.

He's my favorite for the same reasons.  As far as female OCMs Heather Tesch is my favorite. 

4195

Emulator Videos / Re: SnowManiac's Emulations

« on: August 25, 2010, 10:02:23 PM »

WeatherStar XL v1 Emulation - LM Flavor (Incomplete)

7pm Update on Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl (8.25.10)

4196

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Earl- Storm Train

« on: August 25, 2010, 09:05:39 PM »

Models have been getting Earl caught up in the ridge but the latest runnings are showing that scenario become increasingly unlikely.

I agree with this, I don't believe that will be the case, but we'll have to see how things pan out over the next several days. 

4197

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Earl- Storm Train

« on: August 25, 2010, 01:09:26 PM »

Hmm, this one doesn't look like it'll be a fish storm so far, in fact it appears it might hit FL or the SE coast if we go beyond that track. Also that track kinda looks similar to Andrew except I think it was further north in track a little in the 5 day range of where this TD will be. It's interesting because it looks like this will rapidly develop to hurricane status like Danielle once it gets passed that dry air.

EDIT: Looking at it again, it might actually be getting ready to recurve north near the end of that 5 day track.

4198

Programming and Graphics / Re: Lightning Rod

« on: August 25, 2010, 07:54:42 AM »

OK, so is "Lightning Rod" the same thing or different as these "Weather or Not" segments that, according to weather.com, have a set time to appear on Weather Center (7:40, 8:40, & 9:40)? Don't both segments have the same hosts?

Yes, it is called Lightning Rod: Weather or Not.

I am not a fan of this segment.  It's kind of an awkward segment between the two hosts in my opinion.  When I watched this segment, it seemed they were talking back and fourth amongst themselves and not talking to the viewer.  However, they did incorporate some viewer ideas in the show, which is great.  I am all for interactivity.  I am just not for this segment. 

I can see why this is not an actual show

I caught it Monday and I agree it was very awkward especially between the two.

4199

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Earl- Storm Train

« on: August 24, 2010, 11:38:30 PM »

I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't been named TD #7 yet, it's been sitting at a 90% chance for several hours now.

4200

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Danielle

« on: August 24, 2010, 11:19:11 PM »

Danielle is back to being a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of the 11 PM advisory.  The models have shifted the track a little more westward, so Bermuda and the East Coast must keep a close watch on this developing situation.  Now, I'll try to answer the questions asked here:

Andy and Tavores, La Niña is only one factor among many to consider.  The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish.  La Niña conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.

Tavores, the possibility of it moving more west than due north is certainly there as it's weaker and would be steered more by the lower levels.  However, it's not going to be a huge factor as it's still a strong enough storm to feel the upper level winds.  Where the troughs and ridges are situated and how they change will be the bigger question going forward.

Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis.  I don't mean to offend anyone.  I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.

Thanks for the explanations Patrick, I was very curious about that possibility especially after what the 18z GFS showed that I posted. 

EDIT: Not only the GFS, but there are other models wanting to jump the westward bandwagon causing a great divide to put it lightly.