Messages

3421

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: July 28, 2011, 05:46:34 PM »

HD/SD Satellite LDLs are now red as of 4:52 PM ET.

That's a strange choice, unless it was a glitch.  I seem to recall something about red satellite LDLs a few months ago.

You don't remember from last year? They turn them red for any tropical development. IIRC, it was red for Earl last year.

So that's what it was!  I think that red LDLs for Don, though, is overkill.  If anything, Don will be a beneficial storm for the area.

I guess they're getting excited with Don being the first storm so far to impact the US.

3422

Local Forecast / Re: Trammell Sightings

« on: July 28, 2011, 04:40:01 PM »

4:38 PM EDT I haven't heard TS in a long time.

EDIT: Offtopic, my 3500th post! Woo!   

3423

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: July 28, 2011, 01:36:47 PM »

Okay, I've been wondering... what is with TWC and them showing Smurfs themed TWC ads? NBC didn't have any part of making the film so I'm clueless 

They did the same thing with Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs and that last Ice Age movie. Granted not as extensive as the Smurfs 3D, but hey money is money. I'm sure they're paying them well to advertise their movie.

3424

Emulator Videos / Re: SnowManiac's Emulations

« on: July 28, 2011, 12:36:57 PM »

Tropical Storm Watch - Corpus Christi, TX (Calm Before The Storm)

There is a typo on the timer, it should have read AM not PM.

3425

Local Forecast / Re: IntelliStar Changes

« on: July 28, 2011, 12:05:39 PM »

I believe They removed the 8 city observations from my STAR. I haven't seen it since the change to the 7 Day.

3426

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 28, 2011, 11:44:49 AM »

At the moment, I still believe Don will briefly reach hurricane status (75-85mph) before making landfall. Now that he's moving away from the Yucatan, it appears it's trying to redevelop convective activity near the center again. I guess we'll have to see how it behaves in the environment it's in today. 

EDIT: Also I have a feeling that the forecast cone will shift southward, Don seems to be moving more westerly than northwesterly or west-northwesterly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

3427

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 11:19:18 PM »

I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.

TWC shows that on their graphic, but NOAA doesn't... Both maps are not covering the same area, there's a gap in the warningswatches on NOAA.

EDIT: Nevermind, it's been updated on NOAA's website.

3428

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 11:06:48 PM »

I disagree. Models are nothing but guidance, and frankly their guidance hasn't been that good except for showing all the players that can help and inhibit Don. Most of the global models didn't even pick up on a "Don" until today. In two days this little critter went from being a dead fish floatin' on water to a tropical storm. I might be too optimistic, but I can see this pulling a Humberto on us. I think it's proximity to the Yucatan is one of the problems why it's having a hard time.  Those SSTs certainly won't be a problem where in some spots of the GOM it's sizzling bath water approaching 90 degrees. 

3429

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 27, 2011, 06:33:00 PM »

Lookin' good!  (Much more consolidated and organized than this morning) 

3430

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 27, 2011, 03:15:25 PM »

2PM UPDATE - 100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.

I might be jumping the gun, but I'll go ahead and say we will have TD #4 or Tropical Storm Don by the 5pm advisory.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

3431

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 27, 2011, 12:29:40 PM »

The 6z HWRF model peaks the system as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane (989mb) while making landfall in TX
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnesthwrfLoop.html

3432

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 27, 2011, 12:16:01 PM »

does it have a better chance to hit the TX/LA coast? or have the same path as Arlene?

There are still 3 possibilities:
1. Makes landfall in Northern Mexico
2. Makes landfall anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston, TX
3. Makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

Right now, #2 is most likely and hopefully it will pan out that way. Tropical downpours is exactly what the lonestar state needs.

The 12z GFS model is going w/ #3, but it keeps the system poorly organized the entire time.
The 12z NAM model has the system make landfall near Houston,TX

3433

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 27, 2011, 10:36:06 AM »

8 AM Update - Upgraded to 80% Chance of Development (TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TODAY)

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

3434

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 27, 2011, 01:58:16 AM »

Tavores, let's keep invests in this thread until it develops into something.  I do feel there is a decent chance here for this tropical wave to develop further.

Understood, I'll remember that next time. 

2 AM Update - 70% Chance Of Development CODE RED
According to the NHC, this invest is showing more signs of a LLC (Low Level Circulation)

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO.  IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3435

TWC Today News / Re: Site News

« on: July 27, 2011, 12:41:44 AM »

I have been having this problem also, but I never brought it up because I naturally assumed it was my snail paced internet connection to blame.