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Even though, as of the most recent report, the tropical wave that could become Emily had a 90% chance of developing into at least a depression, I'm starting to think that we'll have to wait a little longer than expected to see any real development. I just looked at the latest satellite imagery, and the wave has lost a lot of convection over the past couple of hours. We'll have to wait until tomorrow when the Sun comes back to see if this trend reverses itself. Granted, since these expectations are given for two days out, it could still keep its 90% chance, but I think it's lost itself some time tonight.
During a time a few months ago, I started getting mixed feelings about becoming a meteorologist. I had several dreams that week weather related, and there was one that stick out the most in my mind. Here's how it went.
It was a bright, warm and humid sunny spring day at the beach with the friends and some family. In the dream I decided to not become a meteorologist and left it in the dust. I never followed weather and always went with it not knowing. While at the beach one day, everyone was oblivious to the storm brewing. Just across the lake was a supercell thunderstorm gathering strength. It began to march across the lake and before anyone knew what was happening, we we're pelted with large hail, blown away with 70+MPH winds. Then, it hit. An EF5 Tornado reached the area and caused total distruction. I was the only to survive, and showed me what could really happen if I didn't persue weather. It was one of the worst dreams I've had in a while and really was the decision maker for me. This was around the days after the SE Tornado outbreak April 27th. Needless to say, I woke up extremely scared, but thank God it was just a dream right?
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
Only 0%
Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?
Oh well there's always the next one to watch.
1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Is Twc preempting?? Still on my way back home atm
7-10 hours in advance?
I remember with Georges, the SPC put up a 24 hour Tornado Watch.... better safe than sorry.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL S TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292013Z - 292245Z
TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE INITIALLY QUITE MRGL...MAY INCREASE DURING
REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG PORTIONS TX COAST AS CENTER OF
TS DON NEARS PROJECTED LANDFALL.
PER NHC FCSTS...CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO APCH COAST BETWEEN
BRO-CRP. ONCE CENTER GETS TO WITHIN ABOUT 20-30 NM OF
LANDFALL...LEADING PORTION OF MOST KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE SECTOR OF
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONSHORE TO ITS N...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH TIME AS DON TRANSLATES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND.
GRADUAL ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS EVIDENT IN CRP
ALREADY...AND WILE STILL TOO SMALL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP PACE OF INCREASE IN 0-1 KM AGL
SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH POST-LANDFALL PHASE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
1. SPATIAL...GIVEN SMALL RADII OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION WELL NE OF CENTER--INCLUDING
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW OBSERVED ACROSS
MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. SHEAR THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
GIVEN PATH OF CENTER PASSING ABEAM/AWAY FROM AREA WITH TIME.
2. MODAL...WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN REGION OF MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NNW THROUGH SE OF CENTER.
AS SUCH...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT THREAT WARRANTS TORNADO WW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON FCST TRACK/INTENSITY OF
DON.
..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011
