Messages

3376

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 11:33:15 AM »

Something worth noting, as of the 11pm advisory, Emily is stationary.

3377

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 01, 2011, 10:13:30 PM »

Looks like I'll be close to 100 again starting this week. Will we be able to pull off reaching the century mark for the first time this summer? They say third time's a charm. If we do, it'll be exactly 4 years since we have. I think every 4 or 5 years is about average here. The NWS is forecasting only as high as 98 so far.

and to think Fall River usually hits 99 every year 

It's mind boggling, but it seems like there are a lot of locations in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that have hotter summers than we do. This summer and last being great examples. They updated Wed to 100 now. We'll see if we can pull it off, the record is 99 that day. In a way I want it to, It's still hot whether it's 100 or 90 with all of this oppressive humidity and dewpoints and we can break a record. Might as well kill two birds with one stone.

3378

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:04:19 PM »

That's all I can say...like previously stated, I'm sure that Miami meteorologists are warning their viewers, because they know that if it doesn't impact them, it will come close. And no, I am not a hypercaster. If there is a large hook echo ~30 miles away and moving towards a large city, are you going to wait until it is right up on them to let them know of the impending danger? I also wasn't aware that there was a 'weather rulebook"...

As it's been stated more than once, what was shown on the models today of a Florida hit could easily be wrong. It's possible they have incorrectly projected the location of where the LLC was. If tonight most of the runs were to do a total 180 and go back to a recurve w/ no US landfall what would your forecast be then? If you noticed the model spreads throughout today, there was still a lot of diverging beyond the short range (48 hrs out) which leaves reasonable doubt in the solutions.

One rule of weather forecasting: Never model hug to what each run says, especially when it's still medium to long range. That's a big no no. There are still a lot of things that have to be addressed long before it gets to the SE coast such as, how much will it be disrupted going over DR/Haiti? How strong will it be afterward? Will it be strong/weak enough to be/not be picked up quickly by the trough? Still plenty of questions, but not a whole lot of confident answers. I'm not trying to attack you or anything, I'm just trying to relay some friendly advice. I personally wouldn't make a call like that until at least 2 days at the earliest where there's more confidence in the models.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with mentioning the possibility of a landfall in Flordia or the SE coast, but you should also keep in mind the other plausible possibilities that it could go into the GOM if it stays very weak or it could miss any landfall in the US period and quickly recurves, and even as Patrick mentioned earlier not have an Emily to track at all once it's passed the islands.

3379

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 01:59:14 PM »

I hope you guys realize that the models don't do a good job with features that aren't even classified as tropical depressions or storms yet.  I wait until it's actually something to allow time for ship reports and recon flights to put data into the models so that they have a far better handle on it.  Tracking a tropical wave with little data is dangerous.

Donovan, I don't understand why you're making that depression statement when it's completely false.  There is no closed surface circulation, so it's not a tropical cyclone, period.  You can't even call a tropical depression by its invest number anyway, which is what I see on the headline of your statement.  There's even a slim chance that this wave may never develop into anything!  Whoever you're working for needs to learn about real Meteorology.

Very true, that's why I'm not buying into the models showing a Florida hit or GOM hit yet. They may be misplacing where the LLC is giving off false tracks and intensities. It's almost the same during the winter where some models don't grasp onto the right solution for a winter storm until it's taking shape in the lower 48's.

3380

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 01:14:14 PM »

GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

Hmm, if that's the 0z GFS from last night, it's different from the same run on this site. It's much further west closer to the FL coast...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

12z GFS still says South Florida landfall, traveling north through the Sunshine state before a trough pushes it out to sea on  the GA/SC coast similar to the 6z run this morning.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

12z Canadian is going with a Gulf Of Mexico solution again, the pressure is down to 999mb making landfall on the FL panhandle. These scenarios are interesting, but it's still too early to buy into this. One thing is for certain, the longer it takes for this thing to develop a low level circulation so it can become a depression and tropical storm, the greater the chances these solutions could be plausible.

3381

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 08:55:01 AM »

6z GFS - Wow, I don't buy it, but wow. Direct bullseye for FL heading north to GA/FL border before being swept out to sea by an incoming trough. It also really ramps up in intensity once it's out out sea again.

Around hour 132 is when it makes landfall in South Florida.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

As a sidenote, this disturbance is mentioned in the forecast discussion from the Peachtree City NWS office that serves Atlanta

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOWS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THAT COULD DEPEND ON INDIRECT TROPICAL
INFLUENCES IN THE EXTENDED.

3382

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 11:17:53 PM »

Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.

Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.

Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.

Seems like the models that hint at that pull the trough out of the NE before it can pick up "Emily"  and quickly curve it out to sea.

Definitely a shift west on the 0z model spreads, there's even one that keeps it going west through the Caribbean.

3383

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 31, 2011, 09:05:15 PM »

As Martin said would happen and I figured as well. A DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED BY BOTH PARTIES.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-congress-reach-debt-deal-003853348.html

3384

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: July 31, 2011, 08:10:53 PM »

Looks like I'll be close to 100 again starting this week. Will we be able to pull off reaching the century mark for the first time this summer? They say third time's a charm. If we do, it'll be exactly 4 years since we have. I think every 4 or 5 years is about average here. The NWS is forecasting only as high as 98 so far.

3385

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 06:21:40 PM »

By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.

You're right, both areas are highlighted as one now.

3386

Local Forecast / Re: Late 1980s LF song with meowing cats

« on: July 31, 2011, 03:13:21 PM »

Not me, it made me cry jus like Atlantica by Ryan farish

It seems like a lot of these songs I think are soothing, you find them depressing. 

3387

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 01:29:37 PM »

12z GFS is a recurve, but it's further south and west. It gets pretty darn close to the SE coast before it takes a sharp turn...

Also does anyone know what's with the area to the west of it? It's really blowing up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

3388

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: July 31, 2011, 11:21:08 AM »

My thoughts right now

Red - High Risk/Most Likely to happen
Orange - Medium Risk/ Possible to Happen
Yellow - Low Risk/ Not likely to happen

I should mention, even if it does recurve, I expect there will be higher surf/ rip current risks along the east coast.

3389

Local Forecast / Re: Satellite LF Sightings

« on: July 31, 2011, 10:41:14 AM »

10:28 AM EDT

3390

Emulator Videos / Re: SnowManiac's Emulations

« on: July 31, 2011, 10:34:27 AM »

Modern HD Extended Travel Forecast Concept

With a twist...having the XL v1 (1999 - 2001, which is why the titlebar is the color scheme it is) in mind when designing this.

All 23 cities listed are only in the South in this test run video, also all weather infromation was provided by weather.com (TWCi) so it was 100% accurate at the time of this video rendering.