Messages

3346

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 11, 2011, 10:46:38 AM »

The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity.

I don't mean to come off mean, but you say this like it's no big deal.  Possible changes in the track and intensity are the main reason to not put a lot of trust in a model this far out, not to mention the NHC day 5 path as mentioned by Patrick many times and proven by Emily.  But I do agree it is something interesting to look at, but as a meteorology teacher of mine who worked at the NWS said in class once, "One thing we know for sure, this will not happen
exactly how it's forecast" (referring to a model chart several days out).

No, that's not how I was trying to come off as saying it. What I mean is those two things are reasons it is what it is in the long range eye candy because it will change several times until we get to the short range. That was the first thing I learned about computer models is that anything after 3 days is basically a grain of salt and in the case of Emily this year, anything beyond 3 hours is a grain of salt.

Invest 92L 12z model tracks/wind forecast




Invest 93L

3347

Local Forecast / Re: TWC Songs you've heard in other places

« on: August 10, 2011, 11:58:03 PM »

David Foster - St. Elmo's Fire, it's odd the way it comes up in this video. (3:50)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K365XmfZSk&feature=channel_video_title

3348

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 10, 2011, 09:47:19 PM »

Best not to look that long out but interesting nevertheless. 92L and 93L need to be watched

I know it's just eye candy, scary eye candy, but the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range like this. The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity, it also doesn't hurt that it has the Euro on it's side in all of this in the long range. Looks like the GFS isn't so quick to develop Invest 92L on the 18z run unlike the 0z run last night, more in line with the Euro in being slower.

3349

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 10, 2011, 08:57:41 PM »

18z GFS Today Hr. 372 (Fantasyland for the GFS right now) - WOW. 
August 26, 2011 - What's more eerie is this is very close to the 6th anniversary of Katrina.

3350

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 10, 2011, 08:02:16 PM »

Oh lordy, lordy! 4 count em' 4 areas of interest!  (Well, we can ignore #3, it's just that pesky Emily)

3351

TWC Today News / Re: SMF 2.0 Upgrade

« on: August 10, 2011, 05:14:10 PM »

I am noticing an error where the quick reply box extends far to the right. Is anyone else experiencing this?

It seems to be an error ongoing w/ Chrome. That's the browser I'm using now and it's still doing that from earlier this morning when I posted in the Hurricane 2011 thread..

3352

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 10, 2011, 11:25:13 AM »

Long range models such as the GFS and EURO are showing mid-late August turning active and possibly ugly within the next week.

0z GFS decides it wants to scare the crap out of NYC and Boston by giving them a close call w/ a hurricane, but alas an incoming trough comes to save the day and brush it out to sea.
This will most likely be "Gert" as the current Invest 92L has already stayed out to sea as a fish storm prior to this storm.


If you thought the GFS was scary, wait until you see the EURO. It appears to be going for a double whammy. Having both Invest 92L ("Franklin") and possible future "Gert" hot on it's heels heading towards the NE region.
As always these scenarios are never set in stone will change a million times, but I would stay vigilant if you live on the Eastern Seaboard the next couple of weeks because I do believe things will get ugly quickly. I'm more concerned about the system behind Invest 92L right now which may become "Gert" and a serious threat to the US.
I don't know a whole lot about teleconnections, but from my understanding at another weather forum, The -NAO is expected to go positive in a few days which will probably allow for more of an east coast threat in late August. Not to alarm anyone, but please if you live on the coastal areas of FL to MA start preparing now while you still can. Don't wait until the last minute to come up with a hurricane evacuation plan or supplies to have once it's here. Eventhough it's very long range, the threat could very well be real in the short range.

Here's the 0z EURO

3353

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 09, 2011, 10:27:51 PM »

I went to the doctor yesterday for a checkup on my spine. It's been 39 months since my scoliosis surgery and my doctor says everything still looks good except he said it looks like I swallowed my keys. When the nurse took me to have my x-ray taken, I forgot to take off my key chain so it's in the picture. You can also see the rod that was placed on my spine from the surgery in May 2008.

3354

General Discussion / Re: What is the last thing you bought?

« on: August 08, 2011, 09:28:43 PM »

My little niece and I went to the store today and this is the stuff we got.
-Cake Mix
-Frosting
-Eggs
-Skittles (for her)
- Lip gloss (for her; I don't know how she suckered me into that one.  )
-White Cheddar Popcorn (for me)
- Popcorn Cheese Puffs (for her)
-Snickers Icecream bars (2 packs = 10 bars)

Totaling up to $21.05 sucked from my wallet. The whole thing with the cake stuff was because my grandma promised my niece that since she couldn't come over to visit on her on her birthday last month, we could make her one. Everytime someone's birthday comes up she always wants to get cake and icecream. I guess in her eyes noone's birthday can be complete without it.

3355

Programming and Graphics / Re: Weather Walking

« on: August 07, 2011, 10:13:06 PM »

When exactly does this segment air? I don't watch WC often and I've only seen it randomly and I want to watch it more often.

3356

Programming and Graphics / Re: Weather Walking

« on: August 07, 2011, 09:16:32 PM »

This was right after the Phoenix Haboob happened...

They were asking people what a Haboob was. Now, there is a TWC microphone, a TWC camera, and most likely a TWC truck. One lady replied that a Haboob was a spice. Now why would TWC be asking about spices? I mean, come on

LOL, Well at least a Haboob is a harder one to know or figure out, but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have said a spice if most likely it has something to do with weather.

3357

Programming and Graphics / Re: Walking Weather

« on: August 07, 2011, 09:06:19 PM »

It's actually Weather Walking.

I think the segment is such a hoot, because of how stupid the people can be how almost no one can get the stuff right.

Uh, I think you had it right the first time.  Some of that stuff really should be common sense to anybody. Like the one where Mark asked them to fill in the blank "When Thunder Roars, ______" I mean come on what else would it be? Where would you be going if you hear thunder?

3358

Programming and Graphics / Re: Walking Weather

« on: August 07, 2011, 08:47:58 PM »

I think that's the name of the segment.  The question was asked "how much does the sun cool off at night?".  Not one person that was interviewed got it right. 

I like that segment, I love to laugh at some of the idiotic answers they give. I know most people aren't deep into weather, but my gosh I would think people would automatically know all four seasons of the freakin' year! (one guy didn't know them all when I watched it one night.) 

3359

Local Forecast / Re: IntelliStar Changes

« on: August 07, 2011, 08:34:02 AM »

Thanks for reminding me how awful those HD-intended icons looked when displayed on the SD Intellistar. 

Back when they were still in use, I had a 19" analogue TV, a very decent one, too, and even up close I could never tell the difference between the rain and snow icons.  Showers looks like a grey blob under clouds.  Sunshine looked like a vague point of light.  I hated those icons.  I know people complain so much about the current ones ("cheese," and so on), but I love them so much.  They're instantly recognizable as what they're supposed to be while realistic enough to make sense.  I don't recall anyone making fun of the 4000's icons, yet they'll make fun of the "cheese"?

They are better than the old set yes, but I remember when I first saw the sleet icon this past January, it looked like how snow was displayed on the old set. It would have helped if they kept the animation of the sleet bouncing since that's what sleet does when it falls.

Here's an example, look at the observation for College Park at 0:24.

IntelliStar - January 10, 2011 1:08am (Randle Chowning - Starlight and Broken Strings)

3360

Local Forecast / Re: IntelliStar Changes

« on: August 06, 2011, 09:32:55 PM »

36 Hour Text-Based Forecast in a better place 8/6/11

That's fine and all, but for me I  think it's fine being right before the week ahead, that's the only product I'm going to want to see after the text forecast. I'm not interested in having to sit through looking at a metro map displaying the same info I just read (and had read to me for that matter), a getaway forecast because I don't "get away" that much, an air quality forecast, and an almanac/tides if I was living near the Atlantic ocean. That's why I like the 4000 so much, it's simple and straight to the point.