Messages

3301

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 19, 2011, 10:27:26 AM »

If by analogs you mean tracks, Wikipedia is the site to go to. They have track maps for every recorded tropical system from the 1851 hurricane season onward. I use it a lot to compare tracks.

Looking at the latest NHC analysis, #3 looks to be Irence and #2 looks to turn into Jose. Assuming Jose forms in the next couple days (which is a bit aggressive), it is worth noting that the "J" storm from last year formed on September 12th.

Yeah, that's what I meant, I'll check there and see then. 6z GFS shifted east also just about where it was on the runs before the 18z run making landfall in the E. GOM in the eastern FL panhandle, moving north through GA then NE. It's also been shifting south of Hispanola avoid a direct hit, but a hit nonetheless so it would still be terrible either way because they'll be in the right front quadrant of the storm. The EURO and Canadian shifted much further east focusing on a SE threat. (EURO ensembles still suggest GOM threat, so were not done with more flip flopping yet... )

I agree with you about who becomes "Irene" and "Jose". Invest 98L looks to be a fish storm and Invest 97L looks like it's developing convection on the northside, but not around the center yet obviously.

Also has anyone ever heard of the GFS model having a history of underdoing pressures on hurricanes? I've heard that on other forums. One member in particular said that when Katrina was still an invest, the GFS only modeled it to drop into the 960's, even all the way up into short range when it was rapidly strengthening in the GOM. He also said it did the same with Rita that year. If that ends up being the case with this were gonna be in serious trouble if it makes landfall in the US (a recurve out to sea is still a small possbility btw)

EDIT: Tracks similar to Hurricane David and Frederic (1979) seems plausible right now. I should also mention I only looked at storms that originated from the Cape Verdes and these two seem to be the only ones close to what the models are showing at the moment.

3302

Local Forecast / Re: Trammell Sightings

« on: August 19, 2011, 01:03:31 AM »

Wow, it's quite a Trammell-fest today! 

Trammell Fest indeed! 

EDIT: I didn't notice this at first, but it seems Trammell is only appearing on local forecasts that aren't 2 minutes. It was regular music at 1:28am

3303

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 19, 2011, 01:00:21 AM »

0z GFS - It shifted east as I suspected would happen, but it's in an area that would be putting salt on open wounds especially since it coincides with the 6th anniversary of the notorious Katrina which affected the same area. I'm really curious to see how the GFS and the other models behave once it's a TD. To me, it doesn't seem to be a question of will it happen, but where? I'm starting to feel like a little kid again waiting for Christmas to arrive just wondering what were gonna get once it's here.

Also, anyone know a website where you can find analogs of past hurricanes? I've heard everything from Hurricane Georges '98, to Hurricane Hugo '89 to Hurricane Donna '60 on other forums.

3304

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Depression 8

« on: August 18, 2011, 10:57:57 PM »

Here we go!

3305

Hurricane Central / Tropical Storm Harvey

« on: August 18, 2011, 10:51:18 PM »

NHC is usually slow updating on the site, but it is official.

3306

Local Forecast / Re: Trammell Sightings

« on: August 18, 2011, 10:48:35 PM »

And another at 7:38PM PT 

Spokane, WA IntelliStar 8/18/2011 7:38PM PDT

10:48pm

3307

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 08:31:15 PM »

Russian Roulette in the Atlantic, Who's gonna be Harvey, Who's Gonna Be Irene, and Who's Gonna Be Jose? 

3308

Local Forecast / Re: Trammell Sightings

« on: August 18, 2011, 07:39:16 PM »

He's kickin in again right now.

EDIT: And again 7:48pm

3309

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 06:48:29 PM »

18z GFS took a serious turn west...into Texas? lol

3310

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 05:42:53 PM »

I've been pretty preoccupied with Invest 97L, I didn't pay the critter behind it any attention. It looks very healthy right now, but I bet it'll be the same song and dance where it'll suffer a bad case of bronchitis from that Saharan Dry Air weakening it before  it gets it's act together.

3311

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Julie Martin

« on: August 18, 2011, 12:54:59 PM »

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay! 

Maybe soon we might see her on TWC? Or a better question is this: Is she still with TWC as a reporter?

I would assume so, she did a report on the stage collapse at the Indy State Fair. It would be nice to see her as an OCM. If that happens I wonder what show she'll be on...

3312

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 12:51:30 PM »

UPDATE

Run #14! GFS not giving up on US landfall, but  the strength it's forecasting after going over Hispanola/Cuba are in question, but not enough of a concern to worry about this far out. The track once again as it makes landfall near Tampa heading NNE and then rides up I-95  into the Northeast region. Pictures posted below.

3313

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 09:04:07 AM »

I'm feeling more confident that this threat may indeed happen. The 0z EURO decided, "Hey, you know what? Maybe the GFS is on to something, I got your back again man. In fact let me scare Savannah, GA with a major hurricane." The EURO is also the most agressive showing a pressure in the 950's! Wow, if that happens Savannah is gonna get raked. 

The following below are other models and their solutions.

06z GFS - Makes it run #13, track similar to 0z run. (only a smudge west)

0z UKMET - Shows the storm, but weaker than GFS/Euro and further south missing Hispanola to track into the GOM.

0z Canadian - Grazes East Coast of FL, hints at NC hit with a pressure of 970mb.

If this disturbance does develop as modeled, don't expect much until around Sunday/Monday when it's near the Leeward Islands, once it's beyond that point it has a chance to really blossom.

Invest 93L - Expect this to be "Harvey" within the next 12-24 hours. NHC upgraded to 80% chance of development.

3314

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 18, 2011, 01:05:05 AM »

Also a sidenote: The 0z GFS continues the US landfall streak making this the 12th run in a row to show a solution of a US landfall!  Either the GFS is incredibly genius or incredibly wrong at this point. Very fascinating to see nonetheless because the tracks haven't been erratic like say a GOM landfall one run then NYC the next, it's consistent in a GOM/SE coast landfall. The track takes it over the FL keys, north into West/Central FL (Around Tampa) It continues northbound until around South/Central Georgia before making a turn NE into the Carolinas,

EURO decided to leave the GFS out in the cold, saying it's being foolish and insane with it's solutions, but the CMC and UKMET (albeit not as aggressive) have the GFS's back.

A picture of our critter of interest and the 0z GFS is attached below. (PROCEED AND HEED THEM WITH CAUTION)

3315

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 17, 2011, 10:17:56 PM »

We might have TD8 soon, 93L up to 60% of development. There's definitely a circulation showing up nicely, but the convection has been spotty at best right now. It blossomed up this afternoon before waning down some.

1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Visib. Satellite of 93L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html