Messages

3271

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 12:29:19 PM »

For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....

As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...

90 MPH? That's a bit much...ok, that's a lot much.

Really? I don't think so. I find that to be plausible.

3272

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 12:15:24 PM »

12 GFS shifts north again, barely clips Haiti/DR on the northside and passes by Cuba heading NW only giving them a glancing blow and then continues to strengthen. It's a 985mb low at hour 90.

Irene misses the trough coming and exiting the ECONUS, the Atlantic ridge begins building back in by Wed/Thu timeframe forcing her to go NW instead of due N.

EDIT: I think it's time for me to do some revisions to my forecast cone... A GOM hit is looking more and more less likely.

Hour 144 - Landfall around GA/SC border.

3273

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:35:54 AM »

My Forecast - I'm not too keen on forecasting intensity, so I stayed a little conservative on that. After this forecast map, I'll probably take them out. My track is slightly west of the NHC's track.

Also, please don't laugh at my graphics, this is my first time making a forecast map pertaining to tropical weather so I know it's not that good.  (and no I wasn't trying to recreate TWC graphics, but the cone does look a little similar to it.)

3274

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 08:26:40 AM »

Well somewhat encouraging news, since the COC (center of circulation) of Tropical Storm Irene relocated north, models started shifting east. I say that's somewhat encouraging because if Irene goes north and east enough to avoid little or any land, it will still pose the same serious threat as it would if it was further south and west avoiding land.

Speaking of that not all models want to give into a eastern solution, the UKMET still takes this into the GOM while at the same time avoiding Haiti/DR, Jamaica, and even Cuba!

6z GDFL this morning relives most of the Gulf Coast's fears, but not the FL panhandle and 6z HWRF this morning is Savannah's worst nightmare come to life barreling them with a monstrous hurricane with a barometric pressure of 925mb. 0z Euro does the same trackwise so we could still possibly be looking at a historic rare landfall for GA.

For any hurricane enthusiastics out there call me selfish, but I'm kinda hoping the NHC's current track plays out, We need the rain here and I think if it tracked any further east than that like paralleling the east coast, I know I'm gonna get screwed out of any good rainfall. I always do when they do that.

3275

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 20, 2011, 11:37:11 PM »

For what it's worth...

3276

TWC Fan Art / Re: Weatherlover's Artwork

« on: August 20, 2011, 09:49:33 PM »

Looks great!  Maybe the icons for Roswell and Union City could be adjusted down a little bit.  Do you want the wind observations to be unjustified?  Otherwise, it looks perfect!

I'll make sure to correct that, I did some resizing of the template so the information for each city is placed evenly and moved it down some I just haven't done that to the text and icons yet. In the before picture I edited in that post the bars were not even in size (If you look closely in that before picture the bottom two were not aligned with the top two and also the lines were too light.

3277

TWC Fan Art / Re: Weatherlover's Artwork

« on: August 20, 2011, 09:32:54 PM »

IntelliStar v1 - Local Observations

I redid the template, it was cut off at the bottom on the original template I made.

Before (sorry about the scribble scrabble, just wanted to show what the changes were.)

3278

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 20, 2011, 08:07:06 PM »

That forecast track has way too many land interactions for Irene to be a significant threat to the United States at this time.  I'm holding off from any speculations until I actually can see evidence that it will survive through the Caribbean.

Only because they're taking the middle road of both extremes of west/east tracks, but I agree you can't say for sure. Irene is moving at a swift pace west at 22mph, unless it slows down in forward motion I wonder if that will have an effect on it missing a lot of land areas in the Caribbean. (moving more south and west)

3279

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 20, 2011, 07:52:51 PM »

I'm getting a feeling models that shifted east (GFS/Euro) are gonna shift west again. GFS has been doing that today, it shifted west from the 12z and 6z runs and I don't think the 0z run will be any different. If the ridge in the Atlantic is stronger and retrogrades west the north turn will be delayed, that's what the CMC and UKMET are doing which is why they are so far west from the others. My biggest concern is flooding across the SE, GFS/EURO are stalling Irene over AL/GA once it makes landfall because it misses a weak departing trough to pull it north and east.

3280

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 20, 2011, 06:59:37 PM »

This is a BIG mama of a storm! This is gonna be fun to watch it evolve over the next several days from a meteorological standpoint.

3281

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 20, 2011, 05:30:36 PM »

8pm advisory is going to be interesting, we might skip TD 9 and go straight into Tropical Storm Irene w/ Invest 97L.

3282

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 20, 2011, 02:38:11 PM »

As far as the hyping, I'm not surprised, that's why I asked about that last night. I can understand the reason why, it's the first legit threat to the US this Hurricane Season and possibly the first hurricane threat we've had since Ike in 2008.

Speaking of Invest 97L, it's been updated to 90% chance of development, TD 9 is possible at any moment within the next 48 hours.

12z EURO wastes no time rapidly intensifying this storm and bombs it down to a pressure in the 960's as it hits FL dead on moving north, that's when the fun begins for me to go through the eye, I'm gonna get whacked!   

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

3283

The Game Room / Re: "In my pants" Game

« on: August 20, 2011, 01:10:52 PM »

My internet connection is going slow as  today imp. I think I'll just shut down my computer and come back on in a couple of hours and see if that helps imp.

3284

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 20, 2011, 12:53:33 PM »

TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm.

Well technically it isn't a typical projected path, it's just highlighting areas of concern going by the dynamical models of where Invest 97L could go. Once we get a Tropical Depression and can more accurately locate a low level center of circulation, the models will start honing in better on an area that's most likely to be hit. Right now they're still jumping all over the place going past Haiti/DR. We got anything from a New Orleans hit to a Carolinas hit.

Also I wouldn't be so quick to discount this even if it does go over Haiti/DR/Cuba, Hurricanes/Tropical Cyclones have surmounted those obstacles before, Hurricane Gustav from 2008 is a good example. In addition to this, it's still possible it will miss those islands all together or barely scrape them to the south which I don't have to remind anyone that it would be much worse having the advantage to strengthen and become very powerful. It kinda bothers me that people assume it's a goner if it went over those islands, not every tropical cyclone is affected the same, some suffer worse than others and some might suffer very little disruption of the circulation.   

3285

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Cheryl Lemke

« on: August 20, 2011, 11:28:36 AM »

Like I said in the other thread, I wish her the best of luck!  I hope they treat her better there than WXIA-TV ever did, she certainly deserved more than a fill-in job when she was down here. I'm also glad she found a meteorology job rather quickly, she left here in late July.