Messages

3256

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:03:55 AM »

Hmm, Irene is starting to look a little off balanced (as far as her shape) to me now. There was a met over at the americanwx forums who said an eyewall is developing maybe that's why it looking like that.

3257

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 09:22:11 AM »

Intermediate advisory upgrades winds to 80mph.

I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded. Now, I see a real chance that Irene will become a major hurricane over the Bahamas.  There's still a ton of uncertainty in the models regarding how much will that subtropical ridge over Bermuda break later this week, which will mean everything in forecasting Irene's northward turn.  Irene could still miss the East Coast entirely if it curves northward sooner than expected due to a rapid breakdown of the ridge, so I can't predict a landfall location with good confidence yet.  However, the odds of a United States landfall have gone up dramatically in my mind.

I urge everyone from FL to NC to monitor this hurricane closely and prepare for any watches.  Now, I hope you all realize how much I hate hyping up storms too soon due to all the evidence you've seen from past storms this year.  So, I hope it means something to you all that I'm actually turning on my "red mode" in my mind this morning.

Indeed, an OTS solution seems to be increasing, models won't stop shifting east. Something tells me it won't as far east as they're trying to indicate, but we'll have to wait and see how things unfold.

3258

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 08:33:02 AM »

Savannah, GA is rather overdue, sadly ;(

In other news, Puerto Rico's radar is down...possibly because of Irene.

True, eventhough that cone will shift around several times by late week, I'm sold on a GA/SC hit.

I guess it's true what they say, "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger". I think that's the best way to sum up Irene at this point.

3259

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 08:12:32 AM »

NHC latest cone calling for GA hit.

EDIT: As Martin already stated, now that Irene is a hurricane we have our first hurricane of the 2011 season!


Also what a phenomenal storm Irene is, I know it would be destructive if it makes landfall at the intensity it could shown by the models, but it sure looks beautiful! I think there is a strong possibility Irene will NOT cut right through Haiti/DR, it should scrape by on the north side or miss them altogether.

3260

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 01:27:14 AM »

000
URNT12 KNHC 220520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/05:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
065 deg 40 min W
C. 850 mb 1352 m
D. 55 kt
E. 043 deg 11 nm
F. 130 deg 78 kt
G. 043 deg 11 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1516 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30Z

Expect Hurricane Irene by 2am Advisory.

I'm gonna say it'll be between 80-90 mph.

3261

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 11:09:34 PM »

Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. 

I do, that's why I have been posting in here so much.  I have the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Season to thank drawing my interest. I had some interest in hurricanes before then, but those two seasons brought it full circle for me, I definitely have a higher respect for them.

3262

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:56:30 PM »

Are you kidding me The National Hurricane center put their newest cone almost exactly the same as me and also almost exact same Wind Speed

It was pretty close to my last forecasted track too, although mine is slightly more east right offshore of the east coast of FL.

3263

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:51:03 PM »

That's a peak. Most likely, the sustained is just below that. I'm guessing 65 to 70 mph in the next advisory.

Looks like you were right, 70mph as of 11pm.

NHC shifts east once again showing more of a threat for SC/GA on the right side. Also notice they keep Irene at hurricane strength as it skits the east coast of FL.

3264

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:07:40 PM »

I'll believe it when I see it. Personally, I think everyone is hyping about this storm too early.

It's completely understandable when it's the first serious threat for the US in 3 years, but I kinda feel the same way you do. We have been dodging so many bullets with these tropical cyclones it's hard to believe we could have something significant on our hands, but we can dodge the bullet for only so long and because of that I'm still going to treat Irene as a serious threat unless there comes a point over the next several days that it shouldn't.

EDIT: RECON Hurricane Hunters report

SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind

66 knots
(~ 75.9 mph)

Might have Hurricane Irene soon...

3265

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 09:17:59 PM »

I wish that center would stay in one place, it would make it easier for me to track. It's been jumping around since yesterday.

3266

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 05:40:59 PM »

My last forecast for today. I'm leaving it as this until I see a reason to change otherwise.

Hello Irene! 

3267

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 02:48:13 PM »

Most of the time, pressure is the first variable to respond.  Then, the winds have to adjust to the changing pressure.  I have seen the case for both intensification and weakening phases.  I'll be curious to see the 5 PM advisory given the pressure drop and the change in the forecast models.

Thank you and Trevor for replying, I'm curious to see what the 5pm advisory will be like too.

12z EURO today...
It's probably overdoing it, but still it's pretty scary to imagine.

3268

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 02:28:57 PM »

As displayed in my graphic, Irene's pressure is down to 999mb, but it's still only 50mph in max winds. Could this be one of those cases where the winds play catch up to the pressure? That's a significant drop in pressure from earlier. Also that satellite image of Irene I'm gong to assume is deceiving, looks like an eye is trying to from, but I could be wrong...

3269

Forecasting / Re: Ask The Weather Expert!

« on: August 21, 2011, 02:18:19 PM »

I've heard that when hurricanes make landfall, the heaviest precip can shift to the NW side. Is that true?

3270

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 02:02:41 PM »

Directional change from W to WNW.