Messages

3241

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 22, 2011, 09:15:48 PM »

Man, you can sense the fear in Jim's voice tonight about Irene.

3242

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 08:29:22 PM »

8:15 PM ET Special Advisory

Updated Track:

Category: 2
Wind: 100 MPH
Moving: WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure: 981 mb

Here's something interesting that I realized, NHC forecasted a 17% chance that Irene would become a Category 2 by tomorrow. Could this be a sign that Irene is showing some intensification that wasn't previously expected?

EDIT: Looks like the above prediction was right. NHC now forecasting a MAJOR Category 3 storm even earlier, and a possible Category 4. This is gonna be a big one.

It's been modeled for Irene to go through rapid intensification as she approaches the Bahamas which is why so many models bomb her as low as the 910's and 920's pressure wise. That would also suggest possible weak Cat 5 if that occurred.

Here's the chart

3243

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 22, 2011, 07:21:50 PM »

Music? I thought TWC discontinued Storm Alert

I donno, if it takes the farther west tracks and strengthens, this could be very severe/dangerous/insane...definitely SA, even if they don't have SA anymore.

Yeah I agree, even if they don't use any SA music. On air I'm sure they will go into some form or fashion of Storm Alert Mode.

3244

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 07:19:50 PM »

I forgot to mention this earlier, but there were 16 NWS offices that were supposed to be releasing weather balloons today to help in relaying more accurate data pertaining to Irene.

These are the cities I can recall from the top of my head that were asked to do this by RECON hurricane hunters, I'll see if I can find the actual text from the NHC.

Peachtree City (Atlanta)
Birmingham
Tampa
Miami
Jacksonville
Charleston

18z HWRF  That's all I can say. Not only did it shift west, it implies GA/SC hit, Savannah right in the crosshairs.

3245

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 06:22:34 PM »

Just like the 12z EURO, the 18z GFS has shifted west. Wouldn't be surprised to see models shifting west tonight.

3246

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 04:55:40 PM »

Short Story... Today in guy class, well after gym in the lobby... My heart literally dropped... The teacher upright said "Guys, we have a category 3 Hurricane potentially coming by NHC"........ I'm quite nervous, but right now there isn't nearly much concern as there will be potentially Thursday/Friday... I'm just outside Charleston, SC. I'm seeing a trend with the models shifting to the east, so possibly this thing will miss with its most distructive part... None the less, category 3 isn't something we on the SE Coast want to play with.. Get ready now.

I'm sure your teacher was just as concerned as anyone would be, but to say something like that when there's still uncertainty in the track is not really a good idea, but it's always good to prepare anyway to be on the safe side. I've heard what I considered to be good news from Savannah, GA on the local news. Residents are taking the time to brace for Irene now by buying hurricane supplies and even calling into the NWS/Emergency Management to get information on Irene and evacuations if it becomes necessary for them to do so. It's great to know they are taking the threat serious whether it's a direct hit or a near miss.

3247

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 22, 2011, 04:46:38 PM »

just saw a Localonthe8s promo "Trust Us Mornings, Try Us Tonight 8/7c"

it wasn't me xD Seriously, what is with the promo? No more longform on 8?

It was a promo promoting their prime-time lineup asking the morning viewers to watch the longform programming starting at 8pm.

What a vague slogan...the "Try Us Tonight" part is what didn't make sense to me until you explained it.

3248

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 04:39:35 PM »

I knew Irene was massive, but wow! I compared it's size now with a red ring around it and took another red ring of the same size and placed it over the SE region, needless to say whether I'm affected or not by rain and wind, I may see some decent cloud cover as it passes by.

EDIT: It's also beginning to take on that classic hurricane shape, it's gonna be a while, but it's getting there.

3249

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 04:02:27 PM »

Wow!!! So much can happen within twelve hours! Irene has the potential of becoming one monster of a hurricane, and may become not only our first hurricane but first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season.

The BIG question: will it curve away from the U.S. or make landfall??? As stated earlier, Savannah, GA and some east coast cities are overdue for a hurricane, but I don't want to make that bad luck for anyone.

I commend those of you who were predicting the eastward shift of Irene and higher intensity levels earlier this week. You guys were accurate!

The eastward trend of the models may be done, the EURO one of the first to start the trend east has shifted back west slightly. As I said in an earlier post, the models will have a lot more reliable data ingested in by the 0z runs tonight so that should help in figuring things out more easier as far as the track.

3250

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 01:59:14 PM »

GFS takes it just to the OBX and off the coast. Another Earlish track? Its hard to tell when the models are going to stop moving east with the track

A member from another forum posted from Henry M.'s (Accuweather) facebook page this about the 12z GFS.

It appears there is a problem with the GFS mid-range around 108 hours and after... problem is with the jet stream depiction, which is important for steering influence.

It's exaggerating the trough digging in the W Great Lakes kicking it too far east. Clearly visible on 500mb as a glaring error on the 12z GFS.

Another met said the same...

"‎12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS"

http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

3251

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 01:45:59 PM »

Everything seems to keep blowing up on the northside, I wonder if the COC will jump north again...

3252

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 12:25:07 PM »

I wasn't initially going to go higher than 120mph, but right now I don't see anything stopping it from reaching a high end Cat 3.

3253

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:34:00 AM »

Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:

1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.

2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.

It's interesting, I don't buy into the OTS idea, I still think a US hit is more likely. Hopefully things will be more clearer tonight on the 0z runs because the RECON hurricane hunters will be ingesting data into and out ahead of Irene today so that should help put some pieces of the puzzle together. Until then I'm still sticking with my prediction of a GA/SC hit, I can't really rule out NC either.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221503.shtml?

3254

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:14:41 AM »

Latest track now has Irene to become a Major Hurricane

Quite a noticeable shift eastward from the last cone...I'm not surprised to see they finally added (M) major hurricane to their 5 day cone, I figured it was coming sooner or later.

3255

TWC Fan Art / Re: My Artwork

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:09:14 AM »

I've did a slight addition to the tropical map...I've added the category onto the tropical icons. What do u guys think? This is btw the latest update of what i think in addition to my last night forecast...I'm staying the same windspeed except i've upped the windspeed forecast from yesterday based on the current model and what i think could happen....Possibly a cat 3 hitting the coast...

Looks great! I agree with your track, it is looking more likely Irene will be a major hurricane.