Messages

3196

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 25, 2011, 11:47:24 AM »

As Vivian Brown said the other day, "We are hyping up this storm and rightfully so." Some folks are only looking at the small picture with Irene, it may only be at Cat. 1/2 once it gets past the NC, but she is massive, coming close to Katrina's size and even more bigger since the eyewall replacement cycle hurricane force winds extend out well over 70 miles and tropical storm force winds nearly 300 miles. My concern is not more so the winds for the NE, it's the rain. Irene reminds me so much of Ike, it has a very low pressure equaling out to a Cat. 4, but winds are lagging. Ike was able to do some amazingly devastating damage despite only having Cat. 2 winds. In the case of Irene, the damage risk is much higher because you're talking about

-Irene affecting a very large real estate of population.
-Over saturated soil in the NE making it more easier for trees to fall even if you only experience weak tropical storm winds.
-Flooding/possible high storm surge in some areas.

Noone should be underestimating what Irene has the potential to do. With Irene and any hurricane you should expect the worse and hope for the best.

3197

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 25, 2011, 11:19:27 AM »

She's waking up from her long nap!

3198

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2011, 10:39:00 AM »

I think Adam Berg is a great addition to the field team.  I also like when Paul Goodloe gets out there.

I'm surprised he wasn't sent out, but maybe since he was sick the other day...

3199

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 25, 2011, 10:30:29 AM »

Forecasters in the Midatlantic/NE are gonna have a heck of a hard time with Irene. I'm gaining more doubt on whether it'll even reach Cat 4 intensity before weakening again. ERC seems to be taking forever to finish, but the last I heard the inner eyewall had finally collasped, now the outer eyewall has to pull itself together before it can start intensifying again.

3200

Hurricane Central / Tropical Depression 10

« on: August 25, 2011, 08:50:44 AM »

Fish...

3201

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 11:01:29 PM »

From the 11pm forecast discussion

BECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250256.shtml?

3202

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 24, 2011, 10:56:49 PM »

Won't this be Adam's first time out in the field for a hurricane? That'll be something. 

You know, it's kinda interesting Julie Martin was covering for Hurricane Dolly and hasn't been out on the field for a hurricane/tropical storm since. Also I don't know about anyone else, but I would like to see Carl out in a hurricane for once.

3203

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 24, 2011, 10:47:29 PM »

There's going to be lots of live coverage for this one! Here's the list (also on weather.com, but I'll post it here anyway)...

Outer Banks - Al Roker and Stephanie Abrams
New England - Jim Cantore
Nags Head, NC - Mike Seidel
New Jersey - Adam Berg
Norfolk, VA - Eric Fisher

Didn't they have about six people out in the field for Don the Dud also?

3204

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 08:59:00 PM »

What is causing Irene to turn? Is there a trough or pressure system over the U.S.? I am amazed at how much the track has changed as compared to earlier this week.

Despite the fact that Irene may not be making a "traditional landfall" (go right from water to land), this situation of Irene "skimming" the east coast is probably worse because it's effecting such a long stretch of land with it's most dangerous part: the eye wall.

To answer the first question, it's because it's traveling along a weakness between the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge in the Central Plains.

Actually today models have shifted back west as they were indicating that the incoming trough expected to come into the ECONUS later this week was weaker and not digging as far south as it was allowing Irene to move further NW before turning north, also the ridge in the Atlantic has shown up stronger and further west on some models.

In addition, the models should be even more accurate the next several days when forecasting Irene

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011


NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...

SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.

$$

STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

3205

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 08:23:46 PM »

Wind speeds I'm thinking 135-145mph (Cat 4) range, but it may weaken some beforehand if it slows down/stalls before making it to NC. As far as pressure, already some early reports of 964mb from hurricane hunters I can see it dropping another 20-35mbs.

UPDATE: Eyewall Replacement Cycle is taking longer than I expected so I'm forecasting Irene will max out at 130-140mph now. I think the possibility of a strong Cat. 4 is moderate. Possibility of a Cat. 5 I believe is slim to none. I said yesterday there could be a possibility of it very briefly getting that high, but due to what I said about the ERC, the chances are decreasing as Irene only has about 24hrs or so to show off by ramping up the intensity.

My barometric pressure forecast remains the same. I still believe Irene could bomb between the 920's -930's.

  Good grief...I'm not sure whether to be amazed by her beauty as a hurricane or frightened by it's massive size.

3206

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 02:42:06 PM »

I wonder if NHC will shift their cone back west some now that models are shifting back west?

3207

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 01:15:18 PM »

I think the 12z model runs were supposed to have the data from the G-IV NOAA planes, if so that would explain why the 12z GFS shifted west.

More bad news model wise, the European model moved west. In fact the center goes right over NYC as a Cat. 2/maybe weak 3, but that would be on the most extreme side of strength.

3208

Local Forecast / Re: What lf songs do you wish to have?

« on: August 24, 2011, 01:12:50 PM »

TWC Satellite Local Forecast from July 2004 Overnight #9

3209

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 11:48:39 AM »

Webcam pic out of  Rocky Bay, Abaco Bahamas

EDIT: Unfortunately, this may be the only picture I'll be able to provide from this area as a member from another forum posted the following message. 

Current forecast have the center of hurricane IRENE passing Rocky Bay Thursday, August 25th, 1930 local time.

The webcam will operate until electricity has been off for about six hours. At that point, the batteries that supply the internet DSL are depleted and connection to the internet is lost. BEC has been shutting down the power grid whenever there is a storm with lightening and it would not suprise me if the power goes out well before Irene arrives.

3210

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 24, 2011, 10:57:17 AM »

11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb

It's making that critical NW turn and gone up in speed some.

If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic

Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out?

Yes, if evacuations are out i will ride the storm out my family has enough supplies to last about 2 weeks after the storm.

and i do sit on a very low elevation only 200 feet above sea level

That's great to hear, at least you'll prepared for whatever outcome occurs.