1861
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Florence
« on: August 05, 2012, 08:54:24 PM »
^LOL can we get the same treatment for Ernie too? 
December 25, 2025, 05:55:08 AM
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1862
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto
« on: August 05, 2012, 08:11:57 PM »
At the rate this is going, Ernesto will be in Central America tomorrow and if it does I say, "Good Riddance." 
8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 15.4°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 15.4°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
1863
General Discussion / Re: Your favorite scenes and/or quotes from any TV show
« on: August 05, 2012, 04:28:45 PM »
1864
General Weather Chat / Re: Early Fall and August Outlook
« on: August 05, 2012, 01:05:03 PM »
August is actually starting out exactly the way that map says for me, it's been around average to slightly below. It's also been wetter so far. I like that, it's a nice change from July. No 100s look to be on the horizon the next week or two so that's another bonus! 
1865
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Florence
« on: August 05, 2012, 12:46:41 PM »Flo will commit suicide not harming any landmasses. It's starting to look like it's dying out now.How do you know the storm will dissipate? (Besides models.)
1. Dry Air
2. Increasing Wind Shear to it's west
3. Marginally Warm Waters (27c compared to the 30c + waters Ernesto is around)
If you got the first two working against a tropical system, it's about a given it's on it's last legs very soon. Not only is the wind shear disrupting thunderstorm development around the center, it's allowing dry air to easily filter in prohibiting development also.
1866
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Florence
« on: August 05, 2012, 12:29:59 PM »Will Florence threaten the us or is it too hard to tell?
Flo will commit suicide not harming any landmasses. It's starting to look like it's dying out now.
1867
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Florence
« on: August 05, 2012, 11:06:38 AM »
Both of these storms are very baffling to me in the way they're behaving. I don't see how in the world Florence is so strong. The convection appears to be dying off and Ernesto REFUSES to slow down which is part of the reason it's so pathetic again, the other being now that the LLC is exposed the dry air finally can attack it. 
1868
The Game Room / Re: Yes or No Question
« on: August 05, 2012, 10:53:03 AM »
No, not since kindergarten when I went as Batman to my school's Halloween Carnival. (Wasn't big on dressing up)
Do you enjoy college?
Do you enjoy college?
1869
The Game Room / Re: Lie your Butt Off
« on: August 05, 2012, 10:50:34 AM »I am a pretty good driver
That doesn't sum up most GA drivers which makes me comfortable about driving.
1871
The Game Room / Re: Yes or No Question
« on: August 05, 2012, 10:46:32 AM »
Yes, the only perk about it is it finally supports rendering videos in HD quality which XP Movie Maker didn't.
Do you read the Sunday comics (funnies) in the newspaper?
Do you read the Sunday comics (funnies) in the newspaper?
1872
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Florence
« on: August 05, 2012, 08:01:53 AM »
I'm remaining pessimistic, Ernesto is enough of a headache all on it's own to track. 
1873
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto
« on: August 05, 2012, 07:42:34 AM »Any chance it might affect Alabama?If Ernesto doesn't slow down in forward speed over the next few days, it will plow westward into Mexico and not affect the Gulf Coast. Watch for a decrease in forward speed as that's the tell-tale sign that it could gain latitude and become a threat to the Gulf Coast.
That's also why the center can't vertically stack so it can strengthen. This is exactly why I said Ernesto was feeling like the same old song and dance. It seems like only the fish storms know how to get their acts together the past 3 hurricane seasons. The storms that get anywhere near land play a cat and mouse game of the low level circulation outrunning the deep convection. That's what Ernesto has been doing since it got it's name.
Can't believe we're using Ernesto again.. I still remember 2006's Ernesto as if it were yesterday and the effects it brought all the way up here.
Ernesto of the past have been said to be a cursed name, none in the past have lived up to expectations 2012 Ernesto is starting to become status quo to that.
1874
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto
« on: August 04, 2012, 06:23:34 PM »Any chance it might affect Alabama?
Not likely. Honestly, it's not even absolutely certain whether or not Ernesto will affect the US period let alone AL right now.
1875
Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto
« on: August 04, 2012, 05:37:54 PM »Ernesto has suddenly become much more interesting forecast wise. As Tavores noted, Ernesto has been successfully ventilating - in fact, NHC noted this in their latest discussion, as this kind of organization is not very common for tropical systems in the Carribean.
GFS and European continue to want to weaken the system, but I have to agree with NHC in saying that I don't see anything getting in the way of Ernesto becoming a hurricane within the next day or so - shear is light and ocean temperatures are way up there.
Winds are 60 mph as of the 5 PM advisory. Latest forecast track is an extension of the previous and agrees with the model consensus.
I've seen a large swath of SSTs as high as 30c across the western Caribbean into the Central Gulf, that's toasty. There are probably some isolated areas higher than that.
I saw this posted at another forum. Once again, I'm glad NOT to be in the NHC's shoes.
Quote
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:45:18 N Lon : 69:53:53 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.2 4.2
Center Temp : -65.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF