Messages

1831

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 09, 2012, 07:18:52 PM »

That's actually not far off from my preliminary prediction of 15 I believe it was. It wasn't an "official" forecast however so here it is below.

My 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast
14 Total storms
6 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

So far...
6 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes

EDIT: Wasn't there a developing El Nino during the 2004 Hurricane Season? I would have to take time to check to make sure, but I'm pretty sure there have been seasons that were active/above average with an El Nino developing in the shadows.

1832

General Discussion / Re: What have you eaten today?

« on: August 09, 2012, 11:34:25 AM »

Yesterday...

B: Lucky Charms Cereal
L: Um..a bag of chips I think and that's it.
D: Grilled Steak (that I grilled)
     Garlic Bread
     Fries (w/ partial potato skins on them)
     Peach Cobbler (which I baked for the first time, came out great. )

1833

TWC Fan Art / Re: Weatherlover's Artwork

« on: August 09, 2012, 11:08:20 AM »

Haven't done one of these in 6 months...

Features music from my favorite song from the August/September 2006 playlist, "16th and Mission" by Glenn McNaulty.

Slight modifications
- The bar where TWC logo is used to be orange, now it's dark blue.
- The outline around the blue template was thicken half a point.
-I removed the light blue pillars used for the forecast for Sat/Sun
- The backdrop of course is of Downtown San Francisco

DirecTV Local Forecast App Concept - San Francisco, CA

1834

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 09, 2012, 10:22:09 AM »

For Invest 92L

A fairly wide spread, but most still take it in the direction of the Caribbean or the direction of the Bahamas. Only a couple tank it into Central America. A couple look like they are going in the direction of recurving


Mostly recurves/fish storms from these set of top 10 analogs (NOTE: These will be updating just like the 1st and 3rd maps)


Most get this to a least a TD or TS in about 2 days.

1835

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 08, 2012, 02:26:14 PM »

Thanks Trevor, but I don't think I did anything different from what others were expecting/forecasting. 

In the meantime check out this huge, vigorus wave about to emerge into the Atlantic. Looks like a TD already. This is the best one I've seen since the Cape Verde storms have gotten started up.


EDIT: I'm still waiting this Invest, although it's long term future is somewhat bleak...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

1836

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 08, 2012, 08:53:25 AM »

Invest 92L is looking more interesting. The GFS gets to about 80W in the Caribbean, the key thing is it keeps it in tact that far west, just two days ago it lost it once it got to about 40W (which it's not far from right now)

1837

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 07, 2012, 08:26:31 PM »

I thought Jim was in Bermuda once recently for a storm. I forget which.

Oh good, I'm not imagining that then. I kinda remember something like that too which is another reason why I brought the question up.

1838

OCMs & Personalities / Re: TWC hires new Hurricane Specialist Dr. Greg Postel

« on: August 07, 2012, 06:41:23 PM »

He made his first appearance on WCL today.

Wait, I thought he appeared on Sunday...

First appearance on the show WCL, not first time appearance altogether.

1839

OCMs & Personalities / Re: TWC hires new Hurricane Specialist Dr. Greg Postel

« on: August 07, 2012, 06:19:56 PM »

He made his first appearance on WCL today.

Dr. Greg Postel

1840

General Weather Chat / Re: AccuWeather not so accu

« on: August 07, 2012, 03:39:17 PM »

Heh, Accuweather being accurate? I would rather take my chances on a dead possum laying in the road providing me an accurate forecast than Accuweather. All kidding aside, I would certainly recommend a much better weather service for FF if I knew any, but I don't since I don't use FF anymore anyway.

1841

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 07, 2012, 02:18:16 PM »

I'm pretty sure Jim Cantore reported from Mexico during Hurricane Dean in '07.

Thanks, I don't think I watched much of any Hurricane Dean coverage they did then so I couldn't remember. They should consider doing that type of thing more often because it would be nice to be able to see how conditions are in the Caribbean/Yucatan/Mexican shorelines when a hurricane threatens. 

1842

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Ernesto

« on: August 07, 2012, 01:56:33 PM »

Everyone say hello to Hurricane Ernesto ! About time sheesh louise... I think my goatee throughout puberty grew faster than the time it has taken this thing to reach hurricane status. 

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.5°N 85.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

EDIT: Ernesto is certainly looking much better and has probably gotten stronger in the past couple of hours. I saw a radar from Belize at another forum and you can tell an eyewall is developing and tightening pretty well so far. My final forecast is Ernesto will be able to top at a strong Category One with winds of 90 mph before making landfall overnight tonight.

Look to the right under about 19N, 86W

1843

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 07, 2012, 01:12:00 PM »

I meant to ask this yesterday, but forgot. Does anyone know if TWC has ever sent an OCM outside of the US to cover a hurricane? I'm pretty sure it's too late for them to send anybody for Ernesto anyway, but I was curious if they have ever done that before.

1844

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto

« on: August 07, 2012, 12:55:33 PM »

Eh, I'm having a hard time believing this thing is not at least a min 75mph hurricane right now.

I'm also not sure why I even care anymore, but I think it will still manage to get to 75mph before landfall. Man that forecast I posted yesterday was a major FAIL.

1845

The Game Room / Re: Stupid Questions

« on: August 07, 2012, 09:58:05 AM »

If you got enough money in your pockets sure why not.

Why does it smell like blue outside?