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Messages - toxictwister00

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1756
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 23, 2012, 07:48:29 AM »
Looks like the 0z GFS/ECMWF are more in line with my landfall track. :o GFS is only slightly east by a hair and the ECMWF is slightly west. The key thing here is both models are getting closer and closer to a consensus!

EDIT: Updated intensities, my track remains the same.

1757
General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch
« on: August 23, 2012, 07:40:30 AM »
Hmm, that's weird that they had HD channels set that low in other areas, our HD channels have always been the 800s, a few are in the 700s as well.

1758
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 11:18:23 PM »
The amount of land this tropical storm encounters in the next several days will determine everything here from intensity to impacts in the United States.  Before you all go wild in predicting landfalls in the United States, keep in mind how many tropical cyclones have been torn apart by the high mountains in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in previous years.  I'm holding off my thoughts until I see better model consensus as I want to note how Irene navigates through the Caribbean.  Also, the current forward speed of 20 mph is too fast to allow good intensification.

I don't know how true this is, but I've heard large, broad, unorganized systems tend to keep their mid level circulation in tact better than small, tight core developed systems when going over high elevated areas such as Cuba and Haiti.

Anyway, this is my second forecast, shifted slightly to the left/west. (Still in between the GFS/ECMWF)


1759
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 09:54:42 PM »
I'm expecting the NHC forecast cone to shift back to the left/west at 11pm tonight, Majority of the models (in the attachment below) have shifted west to the Eastern Gulf or right over FL.

1760
Hurricane Central / Re: Helpful Links
« on: August 22, 2012, 06:26:17 PM »
If you're pretty good at analyzing/reading products such as Wind Shear Tendency, Wind Flow patterns, SAL (Saharan Air Layer) Steering Currents, I like to use this site.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Microwave imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac and future TCs. - I would recommend using this site to get a better determination of where the center is and if/when it's developing because visible satellite/infrared can be misleading. You can also save them as GIF files if you like.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_09L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_02.html

1761
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: August 22, 2012, 06:07:06 PM »
But tell us how you really feel. :P I don't think they're overhyping it. We'll wait and see what ends up really happening, I suppose. Needless to say I'm tuned in and watching and I live in Topeka, KS!

I'll still be watching from time to time. As long as they provide great, detailed coverage that's all that matters. :yes:

1762
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 05:57:38 PM »
I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Oh no, this is getting me excited! :thrilled:

If Isaac makes landfall anywhere along the FL panhandle, I'll get to see my first possible hurricane heading toward me or close to me in years on the IntelliStar. I remember seeing Frances in '04 on the IntelliStar heading my way. THAT got me excited! :thrilled: Seeing those big, thick, heavy rainbands just barreling towards me from the south. We lost power for a little while and had some flooding, best of all no school which was great because I had a came down with a cold anyway and plus it gave me an extra day to do homework that I didn't do. :P (SIGHS) How I wish the light bulb had of gone off in my head to throw in a blank tape into the VCR to record some footage of Frances and Ivan. THAT makes me feel sad that I didn't do it. :cry3:

@Trevor - I like that track, it's very plausible. :yes:

EDIT: Starting tomorrow, NWS offices in AL/MS/GA/FL will launch weather balloons to hopefully better access the situation with the incoming trough and the position/strength of the Southern Plains Ridge so the track inconsistencies will hopefully start coming to a consensus soon. That data from the weather balloons should be ingested into the 00z model runs tomorrow night.

1763
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 04:57:00 PM »
Apparently the center of circulation might be relocating further south and west. We'll see, it's still very disorganized which imo puts a little more merit into what the ECMWF has been interpreting.

Also anybody notice it's moving faster again, almost as fast as it was moving 48hrs ago.

1764
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: August 22, 2012, 04:47:33 PM »
I see TWC is overdramatizing Isaac right on cue with that Threat Index. The threat index itself isn't the problem for me, it seems similar to what they used for Irene last year. It's the words they're using for each color code like "AWARE", "ALERT" that are grinding my gears. Obviously all the Caribbean/FL/Gulf Coast needs to be AWARE and ALERT to take ACTION for EXTREME conditions. <_<  :rolleyes:

What happened to using traditional wordings like low, moderate, high instead of words that basically mean the same thing regardless of color coding.

Great, now they've gone off and sent me into a rant, thanks a lot TWC.  :P

On a more positive note, anyone want to take a guess at when they'll go all STORM ALERT MODE (in theory I mean). I'm guessing Sat/Sun and just like with Irene I expect limited to no LFs once Isaac makes landfall wherever that turns out to be. Oh and let's not forget TWCSocial will be on full blast so make sure to tweet to #ZOMFGISAACCOMINITZGONRAIN!

1765
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 03:23:53 PM »
Sorry for the double post, I hope my forecast doesn't turn out to be too bullish on a weak Cat. 3. I'm basing a large part of that on the fact of the GFS/ECMWF have been blowing it up once it gets into the Gulf past Cuba so I wouldn't be surprised to see R.I (Rapid Intensification) take place. :yes: The track is exactly the same as the one I posted yesterday. I feel no need to change it, I'm fairly confident in it.

1766
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 07:13:20 AM »
The storm is at 45MPH sustained this morning. I agree with Tavores, this is way too much shifting they're doing, but each time the models are. Still, the track is generally towards Florida and Cuba. Whether or not it goes up the East or West coast of Florida, we need to think about what we'd (People living there, not all of us) do in the event that it does. Generally the median of the models are centered over Florida, although GFS has shifted this latest run. Even though this might sound idiotic, we should probably hope it does go over or towards  the East coast. If it goes into the Gulf there will be some serious trouble given the SST's out there. Some of you have already said that much though. I'm wondering if the trof that will be left over the eastern half of the US will pick the system up if it's still in place as in the upper-levels it likely will be.

Edit: If anything in here didn't make sense, blame it on the 'Case-of-the-Morning'.  :whistling:

That's what makes the Euro scary, it still wants to blow Isaac up in the Central Gulf and send it west of New Orleans. It's the only model going that far west so it's technically an outliner, but that doesn't mean it's not right or doesn't have the right idea overall.

If anyone doesn't quite understand why the difference between the GFS/ECMWF is the way it is, part of it is because of the timing of how fast the Central Atlantic ridge breaks down allowing for a weakness/opening for Isaac to go through, but another reason is the GFS manages to keep Isaac's circulation in tact even after taking what seems like a vacation across all of Cuba, I don't buy into that. Meanwhile the ECMWF keeps Isaac disorganized and the circulation decoupled (not vertically stacked together from low/mid/upper levels) along with the fact that the Central Atlantic Ridge is still strong and further west towards the East Coast. It doesn't get it's act together until it's in the Gulf exploding. I don't really buy into this either, more so because it lacks any model support for this.

EDIT: Just looking at the 5am NHC track again, the center track of the cone wouldn't interfere with Haiti too much if at all and it would only brush over the Eastern edge of Cuba after that so I guess it's plausible for it to still be a Cat 1 hurricane once it's near the S. FL/FL Keys. Something else to take note of concerning the center track of the cone, Isaac will have to start moving WNW by later today, if not and it's still moving west the NHC will have to shift their track back to the south and west again. Also if it's south of Haiti by 75W, I think a SE/E Coast track can be taken off the table.

1767
Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac
« on: August 22, 2012, 06:14:28 AM »
The NHC track keeps getting worse and worse (for Isaac) another shift to the right/east over more of Cuba/Hispanola. FAIL for Isaac if it happens, it's never gonna get organized, let alone become a hurricane with a track like that which actually leads me to another issue I have with this track. With such uncertainty/disagreements between two of the most reliable global models (GFS/ECMWF) I don't get why they can't just leave the track unchanged as it is for a couple of advisories.

As far as the ECMWF is concerned, I think it helps it's case somewhat if Isaac continues to remain weak and disorganized the next few days.


1768
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: August 22, 2012, 05:39:50 AM »
I think this is the first time TWC has utilized a couch in a set on air since Weekend View went HD in 2008...

Didn't "Flick and a Forecast" use a couch?

True, I believe they did. I'm not sure if that was in the HD studio or not though.

1769
Local Forecast / Re: August 2012 Playlist
« on: August 22, 2012, 05:38:23 AM »
Haven't they been doing that the whole time? They're just recycling music and making folks believe it's new. :rolleyes:

1770
Local Forecast / Re: August 2012 Playlist
« on: August 21, 2012, 09:15:08 PM »
Yay! Sunspot was one of my test playlist songs. :happy: I knew I heard a Temptations song today, I just couldn't think of the name of it. Thanks for the ID Iceman. Also that John Williams song is the instrumental one I heard at 5:28 this evening.

Here are songs from today that seem to be additions.
If some were already being played this month let me know and I'll update the list.

5:28am Moby "Sunspot" Instrumental
2:38pm The Temptations "Ain't Too Proud to Beg"
7:18pm John Williams "The Homecoming"

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