Messages

1741

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 24, 2012, 02:32:33 PM »

ECMWF is NOT wavering from a Central Gulf (Mobile) hit from the 00z run last night. For verbatim, I'm sure it's showing a major, it bombs down to 963mb! That's two identical runs so far.

1742

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 24, 2012, 11:46:13 AM »

Ah, I see. I wonder what kind of strings they had to pull off to make this assigned location possible.

1743

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 24, 2012, 08:55:36 AM »

I did a little quick research on past storms that have had a similar path over Cuba/Southwestern Haiti as projected by the NHC and below are those storms and how strong they were post-Cuba making landfall in the Gulf. All of these storms went across some high elevations of Cuba or in fact tracked across a large portion of Cuba and were able to steadily or quickly recover in the Gulf. In addition, most of these storms occurred around the same time as Isaac and into the peak of Hurricane Season. Keep in mind, I'm not trying to suggest or predict Isaac will have the same fate as the ones listed below, I just felt it was an interesting food for thought. My overall point here is that even though Isaac could go over Cuba and scrape the Southern part of Haiti it doesn't necessarily mean it's out when it's down. It has a decent potential to recover quickly as long as it doesn't do anything wacky like sit and stall destroying what circulation is left once it's in the Gulf.

I was gonna post some honorable mentions, but my list would have been a lot longer.

Great Middle Florida Hurricane (August 16-27, 1851)
Category Three (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane 3 (September 8-18, 1875)
Category Three (US Landfall)
Hurricane 5 (September 1-13, 1878)
Category Two (US Landfall)
Indianola Hurricane (August 12-21, 1886)
Category Four (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane 4 (September 18-October 1, 1894)
Category One (US Landfall)
Great Galveston Hurricane (August 27-September 15, 1900)
Category Four (US Landfall)
Hurricane 2 (August 8-17, 1928)
Tropical Storm (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane Cleo (August 20 - September 5, 1964)
Category Two (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane Georges (September 15-October 1, 1998)
Category Two (US Landfall)

EDIT: In other news, Isaac may be finally starting to develop a vertically stacked circulation, RECON is finding peak flight level winds as strong as 62kts. or 71mph. Surface winds are coming in at 56 kts. We might see winds bumped up into the 55-65mph range come the 11am advisory.
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)   
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)

1744

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 23, 2012, 11:30:45 PM »

This 1851 hurricane looks like a decent analog right about now. (Up to landfall that is)

1745

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 23, 2012, 10:54:50 PM »

Track west again, includes New Orleans in the cone.

1746

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Joyce

« on: August 23, 2012, 10:52:32 PM »

Down to Tropical depression status in just 12 hours. FAIL.

1747

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 23, 2012, 09:11:57 PM »

To be fair, it's showing up during live programming also.

1748

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: August 23, 2012, 08:11:48 PM »

79 with Heavy, tropical, torrential downpours.

1749

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 23, 2012, 07:28:04 PM »

I hope I'm not the only one, but that is really weird and exciting at the same time. Definitely going to make sure to tune in the next few days. It's not odd from a stand point of covering weather, but from a 'political' stand point... It seems a bit awkward. 

What do you mean? Are you saying that because they didn't send him on assignment to Tampa?

EDIT: I wonder where they'll send Jim and when?

1750

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 23, 2012, 07:13:44 PM »

Apparently that's a first for TWC. I'll definitely be watching.

1751

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 23, 2012, 06:02:10 PM »

I guess the Canadian can't be called an eastern outliner anymore, it's FINALLY jumped ship with the GFS for FL a hit, it's east of the GFS, but it's a big shift west when previously it was still aiming for N/SC hit.

There's no other word to describe the 12 ECMWF except WILD both in track and intensity. It went back west for a TX/LA landfall. That would be our Doomsday scenario if it ends up coming close to verifying, but again it's the only model going that far west and in addition it made a very radical jump back west so I'm not sure I believe that yet.

00z runs will be fun and interesting, they'll be ingested with a lot more data on the upper level pattern across the CONUS/Western Atlantic Ocean that should really help out hopefully on not only track, but give more clarity on things such as what effects on the timing of the breaking down of the C.A Ridge and timing of a trough across the CONUS will have on Isaac once heading for the Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf.

FINAL THOUGHT: I've been saying for the past few days I expect Isaac to be southwest of hitting Haiti and I still believe that now. We'll see if that's the case over the next 24-48 hours.

1752

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Joyce

« on: August 23, 2012, 04:51:01 PM »

I'll find the official statement from the NHC, but were now on the same pace as the 1995/2005 Hurricane Seasons as far as named storms since the formation of "Joyce".

1753

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 23, 2012, 12:11:50 PM »

If only the narration could stay that way, gives the LF an XL feel when you don't have to listen to him blab on and on.

1754

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 23, 2012, 11:24:51 AM »

There was a problem withthe text based forecast on my IntelliStar, (may have been a HiRAD outage) the narration said "our local forecast", the weather animation the right side was missing on all 3 slides for today, tonight, and Friday and the weather information under each daypart for example was one sentence.

Today
Sunny skies.

1755

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Depression #10 (Atlantic)

« on: August 23, 2012, 11:02:28 AM »

This is now Joyce as of the 11am advisory. The only area that looks to be of concern is Bermuda right now.