Messages

1726

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 04:57:51 PM »

To be honest, I don't think we'll ever hear the Storm Alert music on the local forecast again. By tomorrow (before Isaac hits the Keys), they will probably preempt all regular programming (if they haven't already today), and reduce the local forecasts to the :28's and :58's.

Anyway, as of 2PM EDT, Isaac weakened ever so slightly due to it impacting Cuba. It's pressure is now up to 1000mb, but winds remain at 60 mph.

Longform hasn't been on since about Thursday afternoon if I'm not mistaken. Many of the OCMs have mentioned they will be live nonstop for several days possibly as late as the end of next week.

A new 5pm advisory is out, pressure has dropped once again to 997mb. wind speed remains at 60 mph, however it has sped up once again to 21 mph still moving NW.

On the new forecast cone it appears in the short term they shifted the cone a little more north away from the North/Central half of Cuba's coast, in fact that area is no longer in the cone.

1727

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 04:13:05 PM »

It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.

I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently)

EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see...

1728

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 03:12:03 PM »

They didn't do it last year for Irene but who knows about this time around. 

Irene wasn't a major hurricane. Although Isaac isn't forecasted to be one either, the possibility is there especially if any RI manages to take place across it's journey into the Gulf. They might use it again.

Ike in 2008 was an exception, but because of it's pressure you could argue it was a major hurricane anyway regardless of it not being classified as one.

1729

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 03:03:47 PM »

Eric Fisher will be reporting from Ft. Myers, FL. I wonder why they're placing everyone so close together like that?

1730

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 01:02:08 PM »

Now we got the HWRF, GFS, and the last ECMWF run (for verbatim) calling for a major hurricane.

Below is the HPC's 5 day rainfall forecast

 

1731

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 12:12:07 PM »

There is already effects of Isaac around Miami and in South Florida, and some outer bands could reach parts of the Bay Area by tonight.

That's not from Isaac, that's from an upper low disturbance that's actually guiding Isaac NW. That disturbance will move to the WSW further into the Gulf so Isaac can begin to make his WNW turn towards the FL Keys over the next 24 hours.

I feel I should make notice of this, the models continue to not only strengthen (In a lot of cases bomb) Isaac. The 12z GFS today shows for verbatim a major hurricane striking west of Mobile, AL. What concerns me more is the models continue to slow Isaac down while it's in the Gulf approaching to make landfall, I don't have to tell you how much that's not a good thing. That gives it the opportunity to continue to strengthen which means if that happens, the NHC's forecast of 100mph could turn out to be a little conservative we'll see how things evolve over the next 24-72hours this will be Isaac's time to shine if he plans to.

1732

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 11:19:29 AM »

Wow twc is going all live for this? Reminds me of how they were like that 10 years ago

Apparently so, this could end up being the longest they are consecutively live on air in quite some years if you start from this past Thursday.

1733

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 10:48:20 AM »

HPC has me getting 8-10 inches, I haven't seen that much rainfall at one time since the Great Flood of 2009 where we got about that much on September 21, 2009. That whole month alone was nothing but floods. Ironically that should be enough rainfall to erase our entire drought or at least the majority of it.

EDIT: 11am advisory - Nothing changed as far as it's strength or pressure, but it has increased in forward speed and the NHC is now calling for a Category Two Hurricane (100mph) surprised by that change. I wonder if the HWRF had any affect on that decision, it kept showing a major hurricane striking the Central Gulf.

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

1734

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 08:31:43 AM »

Maria LaRosa will be in Key West, FL alongside Stephanie Abrams later on this afternoon. Maria is an interesting choice, I think this will be her first tropical storm/hurricane she's covered out in the field in the 2 years she's been at TWC.

EDIT: Also looks like TWC will literally be going live 24/7 up until late next week according to Jen.

1735

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 24, 2012, 11:36:01 PM »

Jim mentioned to Dr. Postel earlier he was scheduled to be in Tampa tomorrow. That only means one thing:

Zach, it's time for you to evacuate. 

1736

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 24, 2012, 11:14:50 PM »

This storm keeps surprising me with every advisory. 24 hours ago I would have never expected it to wind up like this. Dr. Greg Postel/Brian Norcross predicted the NHC would change their forecast cone into more of a "S Bend" shape around the northern periphery of Cuba heading into the Gulf. 

EDIT: Do I need to go to sleep or is that really an eye popping out?

1737

Everything Else TWC / Re: The Weather Channel Schedules Discussion Thread

« on: August 24, 2012, 11:02:43 PM »

7PM-11PM (WCL): Chris and Crystal
11PM-2AM (WCL): Adam and ???

Kelly

1738

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 24, 2012, 07:47:31 PM »

8pm Update: Pressure continues to fall and forward motion has slowed down. Wind speeds remain at 65mph. Something tells me Isaac has a few tricks up his sleeves. 

Location: 17.3°N 72.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

11pm Adivisory - Significant change to track, Isaac could possibly miss hitting most of Cuba! Strong Cat 1 hurricane expected at landfall. (90mph)
Location: 17.7°N 72.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

1739

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 24, 2012, 07:36:36 PM »

Haven't been watching this one, but it could be fun (or a headache looking at the models).

1740

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 24, 2012, 05:22:01 PM »

HD LF video feed ran about 12 seconds (approx.) too late, there was a black screen with the audio still playing anyway and the HD LF gets abruptly cut off as there's not enough time to run the rest of the forecast.