Messages

1711

OCMs & Personalities / Re: New OCM- Bryan Norcross

« on: August 26, 2012, 12:56:20 PM »

Is it just me, or is anyone else having (or have had) a hard time listening to Bryan Norcross?  I feel like when he is with another OCM (i.e. Cantore or Parker) he interrupts them or tries to "take the stage."  Maybe I am critical, but I am not a fan.  He seems to stumble a lot as well.  Like I said, maybe I am being just a bit critical.

In his defense pertaining to the interruptions, I've seen Jim and Chris do the same thing to Dr. Postel a couple of times also. Maybe the producers tell them to do that, you know stop and ask questions that viewers watching probably would ask eventhough the questions they ask are questions that would have been answered had they not of been interrupted in the first place.

1712

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 26, 2012, 12:35:38 PM »

FYI, Evacuations are starting on the oil rigs out in the Gulf.

1713

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Kim Cunningham

« on: August 26, 2012, 11:51:53 AM »

She mentioned once during Debby (?) she used to be a hurricane hunter before she started at TWC.

1714

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 26, 2012, 11:38:22 AM »

I've noticed since Weekend Now started whenever they go to commercial break they play this production music they use a lot for severe weather, but the version they're using is more dramatic.

1715

Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion

« on: August 26, 2012, 11:29:35 AM »

11:28am LF - Storm alert music?

EDIT: Maybe it's not, but I still would like to know what that music was (attached a small clip below)

1716

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 26, 2012, 10:49:56 AM »

and

https://twitter.com/twcted/status/239498456136302592

I wonder if that means we'll be seeing the full weekday schedule of FO/WUWA/YWT/DP tomorrow.

It certainly feels like it, even Mike slipped and said once going to a break that they would be back with YWT.

1717

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 26, 2012, 10:44:57 AM »

My school district is taking a bit of extra precaution and has decided to cancel classes tomorrow.

Better to be safe than sorry especially if the storm surge forecasts verify.

1718

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 26, 2012, 09:36:38 AM »

I was going to make a final track/intensity map today, but honestly I'm more turned upside down now than I ever have been. I was certainly NOT expecting this sudden change in events for a westward trend. It looks like most models are in agreement that the trough in the Northern Plains will not dig far enough south to pick up Isaac and pull him north and east quickly. If the 12z runs today continue this, the chances will be greatly increasing for a MS/LA hit. Emergency management in those areas might want to consider evacuation options today. The unfortunate thing is they don't have much more time to do so, I'm not sure if this is true because I can't really recall, but I hear it would take up to 72 hours to evacuate NOLA again, that's about how much time they have left before Isaac is to strike so if they don't go into action on something now they could be in for some problems.

EDIT: Isaac continues to organize nicely this morning, it fact the SW portion of the COC had been lacking convection last night is now starting to flare up with convection. If it continues we might have a closed convective circulation later on today. Convection is also firing up on the S and W side of the storm overall which was also lacking.

1719

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 11:03:03 PM »

The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.

Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?

Yes, that's what makes it even more eerie. I could imagine anyone from New Orleans on over to Mobile are on pins and needles about this.

Looks like Isaac is sick and tired of playing games...RECON will be flying in giving updates around 1:30am, something tells me they may be able to find strong enough winds around the center to knock this back up to at least around where it was before Haiti at 70 mph.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120826&endtime=0052&nframes=150&band=2&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024

1720

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 09:27:36 PM »

I'm really not liking this, NOLA doesn't need this, neither does Mobile, Biloxi, or Slidell. 

1721

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 08:13:59 PM »

You're right, unfortunately that's the kind of game we have to play with every tropical system where intensity is being questioned.

1722

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 08:03:49 PM »

Here's the graphic of reporter locations.

Add Al Roker who is in Key West, FL.

TWC is really blowin' this storm out of proportion

I can understand the reason why they're doing it considering how most of the models rapidly blow this thing up like a bomb after it's away from Cuba. Some of them are getting downright scary to be honest. It's also not far from a pool of very warm water as it approaches the Keys, it could easily ramp up some right there if the circulation stays in the open waters like it is now.

Since we know Al is gonna be with Stephanie does that mean WUWA is gonna be on tomorrow as a special edition like it was with Irene?

1723

Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion

« on: August 25, 2012, 07:02:10 PM »

Add Julie Martin too she's heading to Tampa!

EDIT: Sheesh, they're not gonna have anybody left to be on air if they keep sending everybody to Florida! Who's next? Crystal? Chris? Mike B? Nick or Viv?

EDIT #2: Julie is another interesting choice, I don't think she's been out in the field for a tropical cyclone since Hurricane Dolly in 2008. This team is more diverse than it has been in years past. I like that.

1724

Local Forecast / Re: TWC Songs you've heard in other places

« on: August 25, 2012, 06:31:19 PM »

I also just heard Layla on that Honda commercial... surprisingly, they actually used the piano part and not the vocal part.

Even better than that, I think they used the same cut TWC is always using.

1725

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 05:18:37 PM »

 

It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.

I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently)

EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see...

Not to argue, but then how can TWC start playing storm alert music if it has made landfall yet as a Cat 3. According to you, the criteria for storm alert music to start wouldn't be determined until after the storm makes landfall. Any storm can rapidly intensify or de-intensify. So the only way to determine whether or not to play storm alert music lies in the forecast, and Irene was forecasted at once to make landfall as a Cat 3.

Anyway, the way the music has been going on TWC, I don't think storm alert music won't be used. It'll probably be like last year where they executed the L-Bar squeezeback LF's, boy were those detailed. 

Here's the latest image from GOES project:

That's ok, I wasn't trying to start an argument anyway, I was just stating what seemed to have been the general assessment of how SA was done in the past, to be honest I don't know if that's true or not. From what I can remember from the times when SA started in the past I believe  it was about 24 hours or less prior to landfall. That's probably when that criteria would be used to decide whether it was necessary or not. I'm sorry if it came across as if I knew for certain that's how it was implemented, it was really just an assumption going by what they did for Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.

The contradictory you speak of lies with TWC also if that's really how the criteria was done for SA. It doesn't make any sense if it was decided several days prior or only 24 hours prior for the same reasons you mentioned because tropical cyclones can weaken or strengthen without much of a moment's notice. They could have used it for all hurricanes regardless of category for that matter.

EDIT: This validates my concerns...From the 5pm discussion.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.