1351
Local Forecast / Re: General LF Discussion
« on: December 25, 2012, 02:40:11 PM »
Yes it was...
September 17, 2025, 08:49:46 AM
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1352
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: December 25, 2012, 02:02:31 PM »
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 695
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0695.html
EDIT: A lot of heavy rain has accumulated in LA/MS so far.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0695.html
EDIT: A lot of heavy rain has accumulated in LA/MS so far.
1353
Winter Weather / Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
« on: December 25, 2012, 01:16:56 PM »
Blizzard Warnings have been expanded northward to include Indianapolis metro area as well as Blizzard Warnings have been added to Southwestern Oklahoma, just south of Oklahoma City, OK.
1354
General Discussion / Re: Merry Christmas!
« on: December 25, 2012, 07:52:58 AM »Merry Christmas to all.
Not in the Christmas spirit. Feels like any other day.
I feel the same way, this severe weather today and tonight is not making it any better. I'm more worried about that than anything.
Merry Christmas to all and a Happy 2013!
1355
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: December 25, 2012, 07:27:52 AM »Dec 25, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Code: [Select]
SPC AC 250600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS
OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY
TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE
BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA.
WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE
GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND
110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF
THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH
SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY
LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS
OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012
1356
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: December 25, 2012, 07:18:24 AM »Mike Seidel is in Oklahoma City and Jim Cantore in Mississippi for the storm coming to those areas today.
My guide says TWC is on tape 2pm-4am.The schedule on weather.com says they are live all day.
http://www.weather.com/tv/schedule/
Very smart decision. This storm system doesn't look to be one to screw around with.
1357
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: December 24, 2012, 11:28:40 PM »
50, Dense Fog - Visibility down to 1/2 a mile, some areas reporting 0 visibility.
Dense Fog Advisory in Effect
Dense Fog Advisory in Effect
1358
The Game Room / Re: What Are You Watching Right Now?
« on: December 24, 2012, 09:08:42 PM »
Raising Hope marathon on FOX.
1359
Local Forecast / Re: Christmas 2012 playlist
« on: December 24, 2012, 07:42:54 PM »Best
Morning: Linus and Lucy, morning joy, I saw 3 ships
Daytime: boughs of holly, joy by mcdermott, god ye rest merry Michael bozzo.
Primetime: A mad Russians Christmas (love this song)
Overnight: First Noel, Good King Joy
Worst:
Morning: christmas baby - u2
Daytime: Bon jovi Christmas baby please come home also death cab for cutie version
Primetime: death cab for cutie - Christmas baby please come
Overnight: none
I actually really like the Bon Jovi version.
Best
Morning: "Morning Joy" by Neil Cross
Daytime: "God Rest Ye Merry, Gentlemen" by Michael Bozzo, "Wizards In Winter" by T.S.O and "Skating" by Vince Guaraldi
Primetime: "A Mad Russians Christmas" by T.S.O and "Hark! The Herald Angels Sing" by David Arkenstone
Overnight: "First Noel" by Tony Craddock and "Good King Joy" by T.S.O
Worst:
Morning: None
Daytime: "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" by Death Cab for Cutie
Primetime: Same as above
Overnight: None
However, overall I think this is a mediocre playlist at best imo.
1360
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: December 24, 2012, 07:15:13 PM »
Snippets of AFDs across the Southeast region concerning severe weather...
Atlanta, GA
Houston, TX
Alexandria, LA
Jackson, MS
Atlanta, GA
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012/
..SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS
CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE QLCS EVENT TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.
SVR WX PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SBCAPE NOW PROGGED AT 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT VALID 06Z WED. CAPE AND SHEAR DROPS SOME BY
12Z...BU BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS...
TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 OR 2.5 INCHES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO LONG TERM DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND STEADY
RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER 6 HOURS.
EVEN IF SLOWER NAM IS RIGHT...TSRA WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR SE COUNTIES
BY 18Z WED. STRONG WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY BEHIND
FRONT BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.T SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
Houston, TX
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012
...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY...
MODELS ALL BRING
A STRONG JET INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH ONE INITIAL JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE AREA AT 06Z TUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MORE AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHES INTO C TX
AND E TX FROM 12-18Z TUE. GIVEN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SFC LOW TO FORM ALONG WARM FRONT AND
MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A QUESTION WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BUT MODELS STILL SHOW AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. ONE OF
THE OTHER ISSUES WILL BE CAPPING FROM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BOTH
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING IN THE 800-700MB LAYER FOR
KIAH AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCXO/KUTS/KCLL
SHOW MUCH WEAKER CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ROTATION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE CAP HOLDS AND HOW MUCH
THE CAP INHIBITS SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL
ANY STORMS THAT CAN BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ROTATE
AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THINK SPC DAY 1 AND 2
OUTLOOKS REALLY HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. GENERALLY THIS WILL BE NORTH
OF I-10 MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND FROM 3-4AM THROUGH NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THINK THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHERE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG CAPPING BECOMES.
Alexandria, LA
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012
...INDICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
STILL EXIST...
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY
WILL HELP ENERGIZE AN ACTIVE JET STREAM OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MORNING THE RESULT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS SITUATION AND
PLACE ANY WEATHER RADIOS THEY MAY HAVE ON THE ALERT MODE BEFORE
GOING TO BED TONIGHT. ALSO...ONE MAY WANT TO MAKE SURE ALL OUTSIDE
CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS OR INFLATABLE CHRISTMAS OBJECTS ARE SAFELY
SECURE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS.
CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TO BETWEEN LUFKIN AND TOLEDO BEND BY NOON...THEN QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL
JET WILL REACH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. THEREFORE...THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE ROTATING CELLS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...AND ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS THAT AREA
OUTLINED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER EAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
PROGRESSIVE MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL BE AIDED BY 60 PLUS KNOT MID
LEVEL WINDS...AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THAT WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL. THIS SQUALL LINE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BY NOON TIME...AND CONTINUE TO
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM.
Jackson, MS
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012
...SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WARM FRONTAL RAINS (AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-20) WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND TRANSLATES
EAST-NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY ISN`T OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY BUT MUCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 200-300J/KG CO-LOCATED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/COLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR
SOME NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
AS FOR STORM MODE...MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW STORMS
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE OFF TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING
SHIFTING EAST...WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT
OF THE WARM SECTOR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE CAN PUSH. THIS
LINE WILL CERTAINLY POSE A 70+ MPH DAMAGING WIND RISK IN VICINITY OF
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT/GOOD MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND THESE CELLS WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TIMING...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW EARLY THE LINE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...WHICH COULD BE AS EARLY AS MID TO
LATE MORNING BUT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NATCHEZ AREA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO FOLKS ACROSS THIS AREA NEED TO BE AWARE
EARLY. THE FAST-MOVING LINE SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO A TIMING GRAPHIC ON OUR WEB
PAGE FOR SPECIFICS.
1361
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: December 24, 2012, 06:49:52 PM »
Slight and Moderate Risk areas have been expended for Christmas Day.
In addition, the tornado threat has been elevated for those in the moderate risk area where strong, long lived tornadoes are possible, not only during the day tomorrow, but overnight tomorrow night as well as advised by The Storm Prediction Center. Given tomorrow is Christmas and people will be out and about traveling to see family I hope the media does whatever is necessary to keep folks abreast of the situation.
In addition, the tornado threat has been elevated for those in the moderate risk area where strong, long lived tornadoes are possible, not only during the day tomorrow, but overnight tomorrow night as well as advised by The Storm Prediction Center. Given tomorrow is Christmas and people will be out and about traveling to see family I hope the media does whatever is necessary to keep folks abreast of the situation.
Code: [Select]
SPC AC 241722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...CENTRAL/SRN
MS...AND WRN AL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY OVER
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ENERGETIC FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
WITH LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATING THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DIGGING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY/DEVELOP INTO A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY BY 26/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE REGION
OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MIDDLE TN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM SERN TX ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND
GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD
/ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/ ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING AL
BY 26/12Z.
...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AREAS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM
ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
INTENSE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET COINCIDES WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM
ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F WILL BE RETURNING
NWD ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1250 J/KG NEAR THE COAST TO AOB 500 J/KG
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
STRONG WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /70-90 KT AT 500 MB AND
110+ KT AT 250 MB/ WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN QLCS DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING
EMBEDDED FAST-MOVING BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS/MESO-VORTICES AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS LA AND THE SRN HALF
OF SRN MS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE QLCS. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS /SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK
STRONG TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LONG-LIVED FAST-MOVING
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BOWING QLCS. DESPITE GRADUALLY DECREASING
INSTABILITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OCCURS AFTER DARK...A SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL...SRN TN
AND WRN GA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
..WEISS.. 12/24/2012
1362
Winter Weather / Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
« on: December 24, 2012, 06:37:01 PM »
Blizzard Watches are in effect across SE Missouri, Southeastern Illinois, Southwestern Indiana and counties bordering the western end of Kentucky.
1363
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: December 24, 2012, 09:55:41 AM »
Moderate risk initiated for Christmas Day via SPC.
Code: [Select]
SPC AC 240653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS
AND WCNTRL AL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD
OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012
1364
General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove
« on: December 24, 2012, 08:53:52 AM »Skydrive is built right into Windows 8 and lets you access all of your files via web browser or through explorer on any Windows computer. It even works on Mac. You get 5gb free space just for having a Microsoft account and if you had signed up when it first came out, you'll be grandfathered in to 25gb of free space.
That's what I use and get the same amount of free space, but on Windows 7 though.
1365
Everything Else TWC / Re: General TWC Discussion
« on: December 23, 2012, 08:34:56 PM »Cantore and Steele were a great pair indeed it was one of the few live programs Ive watched on TWC in 2009 especially during Vortex 2. Robinson was let go when again?I believe he left on his own terms in December 2009.Yeah, I think Kevin chose to leave after his contract expired.This is incorrect. He got a chief meteorologist job I think in Ohio at that time.
I knew that, but I also thought I remembered it being discussed here that his contract was about to expire around that time also which is why he took that cheif met job. I guess I was mistaken, sorry if I caused any confusion.