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Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« on: August 08, 2012, 09:36:50 AM »Here's where i think the Invest will go
Not to be a debbie downer on you Alex, but I think that type of track is the least likely to happen eventhough I see the 00z ECMWF shows a track like that much further west and closer to the east coast and that's only because it shows a stronger storm. This invest would have to be a lot stronger than it is so what weakness there is from the CA high can pull it northward in that direction so since it's still relatively weak it should continue to travel along the steering currents westward. The bigger question here is not where it's going, but will it survive getting there? Models still show this invest being killed like pesticide once it's in the Caribbean. (ECMWF kills it once it's in the Bahamas) CMC still wants to keep it going at hr 144 it's in the Bahamas.
EDIT: 6z GFS showed a Hurricane Dean (2007) type track, taking the invest into the Yucatan/Mexico. It also showed a fish storm "Florence" floating around in the the Central Atlantic.
CODE RED NOWQuote1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
EDIT #2: 12z GFS still aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula as the prime landfall target.
All I have to say is, props to you, Tavores. You hit the nail on the head!
.gif "lgh (21)")
