Messages

3151

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 15, 2007, 01:08:58 PM »

Latest advisory on Dean:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   9...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Now, it's a fairly strong Tropical Storm, and it could become a hurricane within 24 hours.

3152

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 14, 2007, 11:58:05 PM »

I'm sure there probably is.

There is.

3153

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 14, 2007, 11:31:42 PM »

Looks like we're about to get another new member!   8)

That guest hasn't been active on this board for 15 minutes. :-\

3154

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 11:05:00 PM »

Yeah I don't take any prediction with more than a grain of salt at this point. We all know how little precision there is in hurricane forecasting. Its a minute by minute thing.

That's true. Just because they say it'll be a major hurricane, doesn't mean you should go "OMG its gonna be a major hurricane! nooooo!!!!!!!!  :frantic: :frantic: :frantic:". It's a possibility of it developing into a major hurricane because it's surrounded by miles upon miles of water, but only time will tell what it becomes into.

3155

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:56:54 PM »

Some interesting information from the NHC site:

DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHEAR
SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  BY DAY
5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.

As the bold text says, this storm could be our first major hurricane in the atlantic. That doesn't necessarily mean that it WILL, but we'll have to wait and see.

3156

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:51:47 PM »

Latest advisory for Dean (11 PM ET):

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

3157

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:40:12 PM »

It could possibly turn into Tropical Storm Erin before it makes landfall, but the strongest this system is going to get is a minimal tropical storm (if it does reach TS status) because it doesn't have a lot of water to pass over, unlike TS Dean.

3158

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:37:27 PM »

Darn Billy, I was just about to post that.

3159

The Game Room / Re: Guess the Next Poster

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:33:03 PM »

Nope, it's me.

You?

3160

The Game Room / Re: Guess the Next Poster

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:30:01 PM »

No.

Gary?

3161

The Game Room / Re: Guess the Next Poster

« on: August 14, 2007, 10:19:35 PM »

No.. I mean, yes. Missed the 3rd page.

Gary?

3162

Local Forecast / Re: What STAR where?

« on: August 14, 2007, 09:47:38 PM »

I was in Seiverville, TN in June 2002 and i was at some place (can't remember where) but they had TWC on, and it had the XL.

Since that was in June 2002, since then they've likely upgraded to the IntelliSTAR.

3163

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 14, 2007, 04:54:03 PM »

5 PM ET advisory for Dean:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN. 

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

3164

Local Forecast / Re: What STAR where?

« on: August 14, 2007, 04:38:26 PM »

The last I saw the XL was back in July 2005, in Picayune, MS, where we evacuated to from Hurricane Dennis.

3165

General Weather Chat / Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Names

« on: August 14, 2007, 12:45:27 PM »

Gil?