Messages

3121

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 16, 2007, 10:54:55 PM »

11 PM ET advisory for Dean. The winds haven't increased, but the pressure has dropped a bit.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 170249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...
NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

3122

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 16, 2007, 10:24:23 PM »

Im getting a new weather station. I was going to get an iPod, but i decided to upgrade my wx station

That's like saying "I was going to get a new computer, but I decided to make me a sandwich.".

3123

General Discussion / Re: 9,000 Posts!

« on: August 16, 2007, 10:19:49 PM »

Are we close to 10,000?

|
V

We're not so far until we reach 10,000...

Yup not far at all! It's amazing how quickly we've reached that mark!  8)

3124

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 16, 2007, 09:14:18 PM »

Welcome aboard to our newest member, Logica!!  8)

Welcome, Logica!

3125

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 16, 2007, 02:59:46 PM »

Rapid strengthening would mean it going from, lets say, a 90 MPH storm to a 120 MPH storm. The amount of strengthening that we've seen with Dean is anywhere from a 5-10 mph increase.

3126

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 16, 2007, 12:17:06 PM »

How are you today?

I'm good. Just got back from my orientation at my school's new building. It is WAY bigger. I like it, though. It was confusing trying to get around, because I wasn't used to this building, but with in a week of school in this building, I'll get used to it.

3127

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 16, 2007, 10:22:28 AM »

Hello

Hi Gil.

3128

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 16, 2007, 09:33:39 AM »

I see what looks like the start of an eye, but its still not at all well defined.

That's because it's just a minimal hurricane. As Dean strengthens it certainly will get more defined.

3129

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 16, 2007, 08:22:08 AM »

Latest 8 AM ET advisory for Hurricane Dean:



An eye is starting to form on Dean:

3130

General Discussion / Re: Ridiculous!!!

« on: August 16, 2007, 12:15:26 AM »

Or a Mac XL (Lisa). It has a whopping 5 MHz processor, and holds up to 2 MB of memory!

That's insane! I'm gonna go buy one right now!

3131

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 15, 2007, 09:31:33 PM »

My mouth has teeth in it too. For me, the only cereal is Tornado Flakes

You must get tongue twisters (literally) when eating that cereal.

3132

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 15, 2007, 09:02:34 PM »

Ernesto Loops are better. :p

They have Katrina Loops as well, but it has too much tropical flavor, and it's too juicy. Not to mention it almost made all my teeth fall out of my mouth.

3133

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 15, 2007, 08:26:09 PM »

Yours says "leet" currently.

No it doesn't.

3134

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 15, 2007, 08:23:04 PM »

I'll change my post count to 666 temporarily, and see what it says.

EDIT: It just says "666".

3135

General Weather Chat / Re: Hurricane Central '07

« on: August 15, 2007, 05:50:09 PM »

TS Dean Discussion #10:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 152036
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 13.1N  47.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N  50.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  54.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N  58.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N  62.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  69.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  83.0W   115 KT

$$

They say that the current pattern in the tropics could favor in a development of a powerful hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised if this were the case - since it is in open water and still has miles of water to get by before making it into land. At this point we can't say for sure if that does happen, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities.