Show Posts

661

Questions, Comments, Suggestions / Re: Additional IM profile fields

« on: August 03, 2011, 02:48:09 AM »

Not going to install any new mods until we upgrade to the final SMF 2 which should be very soon. Trying to work on getting that upgraded within the next week or two

662

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 03, 2011, 01:55:58 AM »

This is interesting and more concerning.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

663

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 02:12:16 PM »

Quote from: Trevor Birchett on August 01, 2011, 08:17:33 PM

Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off...

That is exactly what you shouldn't do this far out. Everyone along the Gulf and East Coast should always be prepared for that big hit. At this point this far out the best you can do is monitor the situation. By making landfall predictions this far out you only scare people or throw people off on what to believe. I spoke with the NHC director recently and he talked about how when people look at the 5 day cone they A. Don't think it will hit , B. Think it will weaken, C. Think it will hit in the center of the cone and nobody else.

Take a look at this chart and look at forecast accuracy.

Perhaps when making predictions you should back them up with facts and reasoning (besides saying its in the center of the cone). Start looking at model and satellite data.

664

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 02, 2011, 02:00:32 PM »

The models were always showing a curve back out to sea with only a few outliers going into the Gulf or Florida. The NHC track was more a compromise and their own discussions indicated the low confidence of the forecast. This is a tricky storm since it is very poorly organized. Over the next few days it is going to be going over some very rough terrain too that will make intensity forecasts tricky. Recently though it has been trying to get its act together.

665

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 02, 2011, 12:55:22 AM »

Quote from: Zach on July 30, 2011, 12:03:37 AM

Hey everyone, I just arrived back at home no less than 20 minutes ago!

Hope you had a great time! It was great to meet you in person.

666

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 10:46:01 PM »

Quote from: Donovan on August 01, 2011, 08:22:33 PM

Rule #1. Don't hypecast or do any variation of it.

Don't tell the media that!

667

Programming and Graphics / Re: If Al Roker wasn't enough...

« on: August 01, 2011, 12:24:42 AM »

Quote from: Christina on July 30, 2011, 05:34:03 PM

My question is why is TWC airing shows like that? Do they get high ratings, or is it because they can't afford to do as much live weather coverage? Everyone I talk to about TWC watches for the weather, not shows about a tornado that happened 50 years ago. I don't watch TWC constantly anymore, so this doesn't really affect me that much.

That's a very complex question. Lets first look at ratings. If 100 people watch TWC for 5min and 75 watch for 30minutes, then the show that got 75 would be higher rated. It's about keeping people watching longer. Typically people tune in for 5min, get their weather and leave. From the perspective of TWC, if you can provide an automated forecast on the8s with an ldl, you can satisfy the needs of those 5min viewers. To the average person they could care less what the weather is like across the nation unless they are travelling. Now with longform you have the ability to attract people for longer periods of times, which means longer view times, higher ratings and thus higher revenue from ad sales.

So lets pretend you are a business executive and you own TWC. You need to find a way to continue to grow the network in the face of an exploding technological world. Fewer and fewer people tune into The Weather Channel just for weather. And why would they? I can get all the information I need from my phone or computer anytime I want. Unlike us here people don't find weather fun to watch. So you are losing viewers to technology but the people you are losing probably only watched for 5minutes. By producing a long form show you grab those viewers looking for something interesting on TV to watch and still probably get most of those 5min viewers if you keep local on the 8s. So do you A. keep the same business model the company had through the late 90s and continue to see viewership decline or B. add alternative content to grow the audience diversity and at the very least sustain viewership?

As weather channel junkies we know the choice we want but what would you decide if you were in the place of the executive seeing falling numbers? I don't agree with some of the programming decisions but details decide the decisions made were reasonable. Hopefully we can see a good balance between longform and weather programming come back.

668

Local Forecast / Re: Has the L-bar been discontinued?

« on: August 01, 2011, 12:05:42 AM »

Why do some of you think the lbar and forecasting is doomed on TWC? Have you actually been watching TWC lately? A year ago (give or take) when there was long form about the only forecast you got was :38 and :58. There were no Local on the 8s, L-bar or otherwise. Now every 30 minutes there is a live weather update, always a local forecast of some kind on the 8s, more break ins and updates for severe weather events. Yes its not ideal and we know everyone hates longform but TWC has done a much better job focusing back on weather.

669

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 31, 2011, 10:44:41 AM »

Quote from: plane852 on July 30, 2011, 11:48:36 PM

The sad thing is that we are in the dark for the most part. No one has come out and said, "If we default, this is what is going to get suspended/cut/have a spending cap." Which explains why everyone is worried at the moment.

I think they're going to try and cut the unnecessary stuff first - at least, that's what I hope - and hold on to the stuff we really need. This includes spending with defense, and systems used to keep the public safe - this includes the National Weather Service and the Food and Drug Administration.

Everyone is worried because the media is telling them the end of the world is coming. I imagine.... as usual... a last minute deal will be made

Quote from: Mike M on July 31, 2011, 03:31:02 AM

I honestly have no idea what defaulting is, nor can I ever understand any of the science behind that... yeah, you can tell how little I pay attention to politics

Pretty simple really. Not raising the debt ceiling means the US cant borrow any more money and thus we wont have enough funds to pay SOME of our bills. We still get quite a lot of money in so its not like everything is going to shut down.

670

General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deadline

« on: July 31, 2011, 10:32:01 AM »

Quote from: Localonthe8s on July 31, 2011, 10:00:49 AM

Well, aren't airline ticket prices suppose to be cheaper now since the FAA has been shut down? It's the FAA that mandates all those pesky fees and taxes onto our tickets.

No because the airlines would jack the prices up to compensate

671