Messages

1126

General Weather Chat / Re: White Christmas...?

« on: December 22, 2010, 09:41:49 AM »

It's looking more and more likely Atlanta will right now, but I think Judgement Day will be Christmas Eve once this storm is in the MS River Valley regardless of what the models come to agreement on. If the Euro and Nam are correct it should be beginning to phase at that point.

Latest NAM isn't closing off the low early on. Not a good sign. GFS just never phases the storm so thats just stupid. I think it may be very close. The soundings keep things warm in Atlanta for quite a while.

1127

General Weather Chat / Re: White Christmas...?

« on: December 22, 2010, 09:33:58 AM »

Many folks in the east will be having a white 25th and 26th

1128

General Weather Chat / Re: Christmas Blizzard? 12/24-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 08:46:44 AM »

Better title

1129

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 08:40:11 AM »

We get a white Christmas!

That may be hard. This event is taking place mostly late Saturday night.

1130

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 02:09:05 AM »

OMG! OMG! OMG! OMG!

1131

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 12:40:39 AM »

Here is the CMC model. Bombs nicely

Then there is the GFS 

1132

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 12:36:13 AM »

Here is what your forecast office is saying. I personally wouldnt trust anything tv mets say this far off. They always tend to stay on the safe side or just repeat the NWS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT WE
WILL GET PRECIPITATED UPON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BUT
AS FOR HOW MUCH AND WHERE AND WHAT TYPE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME DUE TO AN AMAZING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISPARITY.

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PAST FEW RUNS IN
WHIZZING THE STORM OUT TO SEA QUICKLY...GIVING US A SHOT OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS DID NOT HAVE THE BEST TRACK RECORD
HOWEVER WITH THIS PREVIOUS STORM AND ALL OF THE SNOW ON CAPE COD
YESTERDAY.

THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BY FAR THE MOST PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. ITS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 977 MB SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
TIP OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVY SNOW WOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE FRONT END...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE TO
RAIN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OR HALF OF THE AREA WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND WARMING ABOVE 0C SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW WOULD
OCCUR ON THE FRONT END. EASY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS...EXCEPT
THAT IRONICALLY ALL OF THE GGEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WELL TO THE
EAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...THAN THE OPERATIONAL GGEM RUN.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH A LOW BOMBING TO 963 MB
OFF THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST...AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS WITH NO PRECIPITATION HERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. IT TOO
WOULD GIVE A DUMPING OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE
TO RAIN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. ITS TWIST IS THAT THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS THEN SLIDE EAST TO EXACTLY THE BENCHMARK OF
40N 70W CAUSING ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR ITS TRENDS.

1133

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: December 22, 2010, 12:04:00 AM »

Anyone watch the lunar eclipse? I managed to get this shot

1134

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 22, 2010, 12:01:38 AM »

This would be killer for my area
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

1135

General Weather Chat / Re: Northeastern Blizzard? 12/25-12/27/10

« on: December 21, 2010, 11:54:34 PM »

The Euro has been showing a monster storm for parts of VA and the east coast. However the GFS basically lost the system today. The Euro in general is a good model. Its struggled unfortunately last weekend. I doubt there will be a monster storm but I think there will be a decent storm for some areas. VA could be hard hit. Lots of cold air hanging around too. This storm is getting a lot of hype in the media because of the date.

Btw your video doesnt wor

1136

Questions, Comments, Suggestions / Re: Child Board Suggestion....

« on: December 21, 2010, 11:24:29 PM »

I have thought about it but thought it would diminish the meaning of the birthday threads. I also thought about having a sticky with all of the topics wouldn't get used and would be disorganized. Lets see the results of this poll

1137

TWC Today News / Re: Local Across the 48s Winter 2010

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:52:25 PM »

Should I upload it by attaching it to my post or should I post it somewhere else such as YouTube and link to it?
It is in .mpg format and is about 90mb.  I apologize for it not being in mp4; I saw the email about this about 20 minutes before 8:58pm and was making a mad dash to catch it!  I could see if I can convert it.

I used VirtualDub and XviD compression to get mine down to 31 MB if that helps

I was just successful in converting it to mp4 with the new size at about 28mb but I will keep your suggestion in mind.  Thanks.

Thanks for converting it makes it much easier for us

I'm waiting on filedropper to finish processing a link, my video would have been up an hour ago, but my internet connection went down while the attachment was uploading the video file to the forums.

Sometimes with large attachments it gets difficult. Thanks for your patience and doing that!

1138

General Discussion / Re: Happy Birthday, Lightning!

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:16:33 PM »

Happy Birthday

1139

TWC Today News / Re: Site News

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:16:13 PM »

I see that we have a new "global announcements" feature on the forum for pinned topics and special news threads.  Martin and Jesse, are you all making some upgrades?

It was just a temporary thing that I wanted to get up for this event. Unfortunately I still have to custom remove some modifications before we can upgrade. With the next version of SMF being such a minor upgrade I have a hard time justifying putting a lot of effort into upgrading asap. The Holidays are a crazy time for everyone too. It definitely will be in the near future.

1140

Contributions / Re: Local Across the 48s Winter 2010 Submissions

« on: December 21, 2010, 10:12:43 PM »

YOU GUYS R-O-C-K!