Messages

16

Hurricane Central / Re: Predictions for 2010 Atlantic hurricane season retirements

« on: October 19, 2010, 11:08:14 AM »

The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

A storm doesn't have to affect the United States in order for it to be retired.  Any country affected by a tropical cyclone can submit a name to be retired.

Exactly.  The NHC doesn't retire names, the WMO does.  The NHC, however, can submit a name to the WMO if they feel a name should be retired.

In truth, the United States actually has fairly high retirement standards compared to other countries.  For example, Hurricane Bonnie in 1998 (from my first example) caused about $1 billion in damage yet was not retired.  Also, 2008's Hurricane Dolly caused about $1.3 billion in damage (mostly in the U.S.) and was not retired.  Canada, on the other hand has lower retirement standards as they are not affected as often as the United States.  Hurricane Juan caused about $200 million (in 2003 USD) in damage, but Canada requested its retirement.  I think it is quite possible that Canada may do the same for Igor.

17

Hurricane Central / Re: Predictions for 2010 Atlantic hurricane season retirements

« on: October 19, 2010, 08:17:12 AM »

To be honest, I don't think ANY of the storm names from this year will be retired. We had a lot of "fish" storms. The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

And what makes you think Karl will not be retired considering it caused $5.6 billion in damage?

Also, hurricanes do not have to affect the U.S. to be retired.  As long as a country submits a name for retirement to the WMO, it will be retired.  The WMO has never turned down any request.

18

Hurricane Central / Predictions for 2010 Atlantic hurricane season retirements

« on: October 18, 2010, 07:40:37 PM »

Well, it has been a while since I posted here, however, I think now is the time to make our predictions on what names will be retired.

Here are my predictions:
     

• Alex - 60% - caused $1.885 billion in damage, however, there is a possiblity that it may go the way of Dolly in 2008.
• Bonnie - 1% - Minimal damage, although I think Bonnie should have been retired after the 1998 season as Bonnie in 1998 caused about $1 billion (in 1998 USD) in damage.
• Colin - 1% - Minimal damage
• Danielle - 0% - Pretty much a fishspinner.
• Earl - 10% - Did some damage but not extreme damage.
• Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Gaston - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Hermine - 15% - Damage moderate but not too severe.
• Igor - 50% - While damage was not extremely severe, it was one of the worst hurricanes to affect Newfoundland in many years, and Canada might request its retirement to the WMO as they did for Juan in 2003.
• Julia - <1% - Very minimal damage.
• Karl - 90% - Caused $5.6 billion in damage.
• Matthew - 40% - Casued a severe mudslide in Oxaca, although overall damage is not known at this time.
• Nicole - 15% - Damage moderate but not severe.
• Otto - 14% - Damage not extreme.
• Paula - 25% (preliminary) - Damage unknown at this time.

Does anyone have their own guesses?

19

General Weather Chat / Re: 2008 Retired Hurrricane Names

« on: February 09, 2009, 07:27:25 PM »

Here are my updated retirement probablities.  Instead of giving a specific percentage, I will this time group them by tier.

Well, all the TCRs are out, so I decided I should update my probabilities. This time, instead of giving a specific number, I will group them by tiers.

Most definately retired: Gustav, Ike
Probably retired: Dolly, Hanna, Paloma
Possibly retired: Fay, Omar
Probably not retired: Arthur, Kyle
Not retired: All others.

20

General Weather Chat / Re: 2008 Retired Hurrricane Names

« on: January 07, 2009, 09:00:52 AM »

Dolly= Daphne/Devon
Fay= Fiona/Fletcher
Gustav=Grayson/Gina
Hanna= Henry/Haley
Ike= Ilyssa/Ian
Paloma= Patrick/Paige

No offense, but replacement names have to match the gender of the name they are replacing, otherwise it would break the pattern of alternating male/female names.  Also, Fiona is Frances' replacement, which will be used in 2010.

21

General Weather Chat / Re: 2008 Retired Hurrricane Names

« on: January 05, 2009, 01:43:10 PM »

Revisiting the subject, I thought that we should think up of some replacement names, should all of these names be retired by the WMO:

• Replace Dolly with Daphne
• Replace Fay with Fiorenza
• Replace Gustav with Giovanni
• Replace Hanna with Helga
• Replace Ike with Ian
• Replace Paloma with Pamela

22

General Weather Chat / Re: 2008 Retired Hurrricane Names

« on: November 22, 2008, 10:11:47 PM »

Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. 

TWC doesn't retire the names, the National Hurricane Center does.

Actually, you are also wrong, the NHC nor the NWS do not retire hurricane names.  Names are retired by the WMO (World Meteorlogical Organization).

Why does everyone here seem to think only Ike will be retired?  In 2007, we had three storms retired (Dean, Felix, and Noel).  Gustav was more damaging than all three of those storms combined, and Hanna was deadlier than any of those three storms.

Here are my predictions, percentagewise:
Arthur - 4% - not severely damaging.
Bertha - 3% - strong, but once again not severely damaging.
Cristobal - 2% - forgettable, barely damaging at all.
Dolly - 60% - Damage estimate still remains at $1.52 billion several months after its landfall.
Edouard - 5% - Damage total unknown, but once again, probably not severe.
Fay - 25% - Current damage estimate is $180 million, which is significant (especially for a tropical storm), but nothing extremely severe (far short of $1 billion mark).
Gustav - 95% - Very severely damaging, I would be very surprised if it is not retired.
Hanna - 85% - Very deadly, although Gordon (which affected the same area) of 1994 wasn't retired, yet again, Jeanne of 2004 was retired.
Ike - 100% - Third most destructive named hurricane in U.S. history, pretty obvious candidate.
Josephine - 1% - just gave Cape Verde a little breeze and nothing else.
Kyle - 5% - While not severely damaging, Canada got Juan of 2003 retired. However, Kyle was less damaging than Juan, so I don't think it is very likely Kyle will be retired.
Laura - 1% - Fishspinner while tropical.
Marco - 5% - Damage unknown, but probably not severe.
Nana - 0% - Total fishspinner.
Omar - 15% - Still waiting for damage total. Probably more damaging than Edouard and Marco, but we will have to see whether the damage is severe enough for retirement. This is exactly what we have been doing with T.S. Erin last year.
Paloma - 55% - Current damage estimate is $1.4 billion, but we will still have to wait if that estimate is accurate.

23

General Weather Chat / Dean, Felix, Noel retired from 2007 hurricane season names

« on: May 16, 2008, 06:00:55 PM »

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080513_stormnames.html

Yes, the retirements have been decided.  The names Dean, Felix, and Noel have been retired, and have been replaced by Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor.

I personally would have preferred Derek, Fritz, and Norton.

24

General Weather Chat / Re: 2007 hurricane name retirements

« on: February 14, 2008, 08:20:55 AM »

I can certainly say that nearly half of the names in 2005 season will be retired

The retirements have already been selected for 2005.  Names retired include Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma.

Could we please stay on topic and talk about the 2007 season, not about any other hurricane seasons.

25

General Weather Chat / Re: 2007 hurricane name retirements

« on: February 13, 2008, 08:38:38 PM »

Alex- minimal damage

Wrong season, that was 2004.  Alex was not retired and will be used again in 2010.

26

General Weather Chat / Re: 2007 hurricane name retirements

« on: February 12, 2008, 10:33:51 PM »

What About Hurricane Katrina?

Katrina has already been retired.  It has been replaced with Katia for 2011.

Other names retired from 2005 include:
Dennis - replaced with Don
Rita - replaced with Rina
Stan - replaced with Sean
Wilma - replaced with Whitney

No names were retired for the 2006 season.

27

General Weather Chat / 2007 hurricane name retirements

« on: February 12, 2008, 08:39:01 PM »

I know I have talked about this at TWC Classics; I would like to see the opinions here.

Here are my thoughts:

Likely retired:
Dean - severe damage, totaling near $6 billion
Felix - 130 confirmed deaths, severe damage likely
Noel - 163 confirmed deaths, significant damage

Possibly retired:
Erin - Damage total still pending, but worsened a severe flooding problem in Texas
Olga - 40 deaths, record for an off-season storm

Very small chance:
Humberto - $50 million in damage
Lorenzo - $92 million in damage

Not retired:
Andrea - minimal damage
Barry - minimal damage
Chantal - very minor damage
Gabrielle - minimal damage
Ingrid - fishspinner
Jerry - fishspinner
Karen - fishspinner
Melissa - fishspinner

28

Local Forecast / Re: Your Ideas for Flavor Lineups

« on: February 12, 2008, 08:00:19 PM »

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