841
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: September 17, 2012, 04:57:09 PM »
75.6°F Partly Cloudy
High Wind Watch in effect.
High Wind Watch in effect.
November 29, 2024, 09:31:46 AM
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842
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 17, 2012, 03:51:31 PM »
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
180400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.
* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE.
* TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW
YORK CITY AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO THE EAST.
THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
180400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.
* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE.
* TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW
YORK CITY AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO THE EAST.
THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&
$$
843
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 17, 2012, 03:04:29 PM »
**PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA ARE ALREADY UNDER A HIGH WIND WATCH. Though the criteria for a High Wind Watch for those areas are lower than ours, the current area under a High Wind Watch is inland, according to the watch's description, specifically only the higher elevations are likely to receive warning criteria level winds. Given that Long Island geographically favors high winds, I now give Long Island a 100% chance of being put under at least a Wind Advisory, and now a 50% chance of a High Wind Watch.
EDIT: **WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ARE NOW UNDER A WIND ADVISORY**
EDIT: **WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ARE NOW UNDER A WIND ADVISORY**
844
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: September 17, 2012, 10:05:49 AM »
70.6°F Mostly Sunny
Got down to 51.5°F this morning, the coldest morning of the season so far.
Got down to 51.5°F this morning, the coldest morning of the season so far.
845
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 17, 2012, 08:24:33 AM »
Sorry to post so much in this thread.
*Gale Watch now in effect
90% Chance of Wind Advisory
20% Chance of High Wind Warning
... Gale watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
Tuesday night...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a gale watch...
which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night.
* Location... forecast waters surrounding Long Island... and New
York Harbor.
* Winds... south 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
* Seas... 7 to 12 feet.
* Timing... Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night... with the
highest winds and seas likely Tuesday night.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A gale watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased... but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.
From NWS Forecast Discussion:
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS AT 950 MB INCREASING FROM AROUND 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
TO NEAR 60 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
INCREASING THETA E VALUES WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO LIKELY WITH DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
I'm still sticking with my forecast wind map posted above, no changes are expected to be made
*Gale Watch now in effect
90% Chance of Wind Advisory
20% Chance of High Wind Warning
... Gale watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
Tuesday night...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a gale watch...
which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night.
* Location... forecast waters surrounding Long Island... and New
York Harbor.
* Winds... south 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
* Seas... 7 to 12 feet.
* Timing... Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night... with the
highest winds and seas likely Tuesday night.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A gale watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased... but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.
From NWS Forecast Discussion:
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS AT 950 MB INCREASING FROM AROUND 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
TO NEAR 60 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
INCREASING THETA E VALUES WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO LIKELY WITH DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
I'm still sticking with my forecast wind map posted above, no changes are expected to be made
846
The Game Room / Re: What TV Channels Make Up Your Birthday?
« on: September 16, 2012, 10:01:29 PM »
4: NBC 4
4: NBC 4
97: Nothing
4: NBC 4
97: Nothing
847
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 16, 2012, 07:56:07 PM »
From NWS:
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE
EMPHASIS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DURING TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COINCIDES WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A 50 TO 60 KT 925 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE HOW UNSTABLE WILL THE LOW-LEVELS GET. THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...MU CAPES ON THE ORDER 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND WARM
WATERS TO THE SOUTH ALL POINT TO DECENT MIXING. IN FACT...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS 7 TO 8 DEG C LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB. THIS
POINTS TO A SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND EVENT WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN
ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...STILL GOING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...BUT THIS MAY BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS.
SHOULD THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE GROWS...WINDS WILL BE ADJUSTED
UPWARDS.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE
EMPHASIS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DURING TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COINCIDES WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A 50 TO 60 KT 925 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE HOW UNSTABLE WILL THE LOW-LEVELS GET. THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...MU CAPES ON THE ORDER 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND WARM
WATERS TO THE SOUTH ALL POINT TO DECENT MIXING. IN FACT...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS 7 TO 8 DEG C LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB. THIS
POINTS TO A SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND EVENT WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN
ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...STILL GOING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...BUT THIS MAY BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS.
SHOULD THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE GROWS...WINDS WILL BE ADJUSTED
UPWARDS.
848
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 16, 2012, 01:13:50 PM »
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT STORM TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF DOES REMAIN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THE
MODEL TRIES TO LINGER THE BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE CWA. WITH
RESPECT TO WIND...THE 00Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE FIELDS FOR
THE EVENT. IT IS NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 40KT BL
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO.
STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL IN CONVECTION AS 925 HPA WINDS IN THE GFS
ARE 50-55KT. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FCST...AND THE HWO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE STORM.
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE AND INTO THE UPSTATE OF NY BY
TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THERE INTO EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT WILL
PRECEDE THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WED.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT STORM TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF DOES REMAIN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THE
MODEL TRIES TO LINGER THE BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE CWA. WITH
RESPECT TO WIND...THE 00Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE FIELDS FOR
THE EVENT. IT IS NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 40KT BL
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO.
STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL IN CONVECTION AS 925 HPA WINDS IN THE GFS
ARE 50-55KT. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FCST...AND THE HWO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE STORM.
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE AND INTO THE UPSTATE OF NY BY
TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THERE INTO EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT WILL
PRECEDE THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WED.
849
General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch
« on: September 16, 2012, 09:06:10 AM »
Nice storm that's going to effect Alaska. Gusts to 110mph are expected in the mountains. Why are non-tropical cyclones so underrated???
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=WWAK81PAFC
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=WWAK81PAFC
850
General Discussion / Re: What are you listening to?
« on: September 16, 2012, 09:02:03 AM »
"Sunshine" by Ryan Farish
851
General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch
« on: September 15, 2012, 10:32:01 AM »Why am I getting Malware warnings for this forum?I'm getting them too.
852
The Game Room / Re: Lie your Butt Off
« on: September 15, 2012, 10:26:24 AM »
I'm not listening to Christmas music in September.
853
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 15, 2012, 10:17:31 AM »
My forecast winds for the Sep 18th Storm.
From NWS:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
TSTMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING.
From NWS:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
TSTMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING.
854
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: September 14, 2012, 08:58:40 PM »
I Love wind storms, and we could be getting a good one on Tuesday!!!
000
FLUS41 KOKX 141959
HWOOKX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012
ANZ338-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
151000-
NEW YORK HARBOR-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
359 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TUESDAY AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY DURING TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR THIS SYSTEM.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.
000
FLUS41 KOKX 141959
HWOOKX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012
ANZ338-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
151000-
NEW YORK HARBOR-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
359 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TUESDAY AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY DURING TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR THIS SYSTEM.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.
855
Winter Weather / Re: 2012-2013 Winter Outlook
« on: September 14, 2012, 04:16:25 PM »
I don't know about you guys but I think this is going to be a very extreme winter for the entire northern hemisphere. It can turn out to be a remarkable warm winter for many, or it can turn out to be a brutally cold and snowy winter for many. I think the odds of a normal winter aren't likely.
Given the fact that we have a record-shattering low sea ice extent right now, I think this can open the door for some crazy temperature departures across much of the northern hemisphere. In studies, it's becoming more clear that lower sea ice contents and extents have been altering the jet stream patterns, causing greater dips and ridges over certain areas. I think there are two situations can happen. If NAO goes negative, it will likely stay negative for the majority of the winter, and bring pro-dominantly cold and snowy weather to the eastern US. If it goes positive, we are likely to see yet another warm winter. I want you guys to see how lower sea ice extents can cause such dramatic winters.
2010 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a cold & snowy winter across eastern US (2010-2011 Winter Season)
2011 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a remarkable warm and snow-less winter is US, remarkable cold and snowy winter in Europe (2011-2012 Winter Season)
2012 Record Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Cold & Snowy Winter or Very Warm Winter for US & Europe
Take a look at the 12z GFS, and go out to surface temperatures for Sep 23 - 27th, extremely below average temperatures are expected across the northern US. Some solutions even indicate snow might be possible for areas in northern Minnesota, northern North Dakota, and northern Michigan around the Sep 23 - 27th time frame. Only a slight glimpse of what this upcoming winter might bring us.
Given the fact that we have a record-shattering low sea ice extent right now, I think this can open the door for some crazy temperature departures across much of the northern hemisphere. In studies, it's becoming more clear that lower sea ice contents and extents have been altering the jet stream patterns, causing greater dips and ridges over certain areas. I think there are two situations can happen. If NAO goes negative, it will likely stay negative for the majority of the winter, and bring pro-dominantly cold and snowy weather to the eastern US. If it goes positive, we are likely to see yet another warm winter. I want you guys to see how lower sea ice extents can cause such dramatic winters.
2010 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a cold & snowy winter across eastern US (2010-2011 Winter Season)
2011 Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Led to a remarkable warm and snow-less winter is US, remarkable cold and snowy winter in Europe (2011-2012 Winter Season)
2012 Record Low Arctic Sea Ice Extent → Cold & Snowy Winter or Very Warm Winter for US & Europe
Take a look at the 12z GFS, and go out to surface temperatures for Sep 23 - 27th, extremely below average temperatures are expected across the northern US. Some solutions even indicate snow might be possible for areas in northern Minnesota, northern North Dakota, and northern Michigan around the Sep 23 - 27th time frame. Only a slight glimpse of what this upcoming winter might bring us.