Messages

766

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: October 27, 2012, 05:07:56 PM »

63.4°F Cloudy

Hurricane Force Wind Watch in effect over the waters of LI
High Wind Watch in effect, 40-55mph G to 70-80mph
Flood Watch in effect, 2-6" of rain

767

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 27, 2012, 10:18:49 AM »

Sorry for double post!

I think it's a bad call by the NHC not to issue any warnings/watches for the region. Local offices are now issuing individual advisories which I think will make the public not take this storm seriously.

768

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 27, 2012, 08:21:30 AM »

I would call for a landfall in Sothern NJ at this point. I'm putting more of my confidence in the global models rather than the hurricane models at this point.

769

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 26, 2012, 06:35:00 PM »

This question is for Patrick, I thought I would ask it here because it would be more relevant to the conversation. My question is would the NHC issue tropical weather warnings for a storm that will most likely be post-tropical by the time it gets here? I'm wondering if the NHC will issue warnings for us or just our local NWS office will have to issue several individual warnings like Hind Wind Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, etc. For the sake of saving lives, I think issuing a tropical storm warning or hurricane warning would be much easier for common people to understand rather than having several different warnings and have everyone understand what each warning means.

770

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: October 26, 2012, 02:35:54 PM »

My wind forecast map like I do usually, but this time I have never used so much of the map. I did this to show Sandy's possible extensive wind field.

771

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 26, 2012, 02:33:15 PM »

ECMWF had Sandy phasing too early and is now on par with other models for a NJ/NY/New England hit.

772

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: October 25, 2012, 08:31:32 PM »

18z GFS Central NJ landfall. Sustained surface winds here would be around 50-55kts.

773

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 25, 2012, 02:25:20 PM »

OMG!!!  I have never been this pumped for a storm ever!



Note: This image will update

774

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 24, 2012, 02:34:41 PM »

12z GFS run takes Sandy to landfall in Southern Maine/ NH @ 948mb. 00z ECMWF makes landfall in New Jersey @ 933mb. 12z ECMWF takes landfall in Southern New Jersey/Maryland/Delaware @ 935mb. Still some huge uncertainty in the models. The storm can make landfall anywhere from Maryland to Nova Scotia according to the models.

775

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 23, 2012, 06:47:51 PM »

Even the 18z OP GFS has this system curving back NW a little bit into Nova Scotia, notice how far and tight the pressure gradient extends out. It would still be very windy next week even though the storm might be several hundred miles away.



18z GFS Ensemble Mean:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical204.gif

776

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: October 23, 2012, 04:27:04 PM »

Removed and reposted in "Tropical Storm Sandy". 

777

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Sandy

« on: October 23, 2012, 04:16:45 PM »

 

778

General Discussion / Re: Happy Birthday, Martin!

« on: October 22, 2012, 02:29:15 PM »

Happy Birthday Martin

779

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: October 21, 2012, 09:55:36 AM »

Wow! Never thought we would see this towards the end of October/ early November! As the tropical system makes it's approach to New England, it should transition into a cold core then weaken. Either way it's going to be very strong. GFS has this storm down to 962mb for it's strongest approach to New England. Still far out but it should be interesting what the models do with this storm. ECMWF also has a similar track to the GFS.

Edit: Model Fantasy Land Predictions:
Long Island:
Winds: ENE 50-70mph G to 100mph
Precip: 1/2' to 2' of rain (That's not inches, that's feet)

Obviously this should change, but it's odd that most of reliable global models have similar tracks and strengths.

780

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: October 20, 2012, 01:21:23 PM »

It seems me and Patrick are the only ones who post in this thread a lot. 

71.5°F Sunny