Messages

541

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: February 08, 2013, 07:27:33 PM »

Upton says thunder is possible. Some reports of Thundersnow have already happened.

Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

542

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: February 08, 2013, 05:03:51 PM »

It should be changing over to snow within the hour.

And it did 

32.9°F Heavy Snow
Vis: 1/8 miles
Sitting under a 50dbz snow band.

543

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: February 08, 2013, 04:12:36 PM »

33.7°F Heavy Sleet

This sucks

4km NAM gives me 30" of snow.

544

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 08, 2013, 08:50:40 AM »

The radar just looks amazing. If you look at loops, you can clearly see the rotation around the center of the low, even forming a small eye at the center.

545

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: February 08, 2013, 08:42:22 AM »

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

NYZ078>081-177-179-081730-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH
  LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY
  ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
  INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

546

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 07, 2013, 11:40:10 PM »

I'm looking at the current GFS model and it has the storm shifting slightly east.

I would toss it. It initialized bad. The NAM did a better job initializing. The MM5 looks really good. It nailed the Boxing Day Blizzard and Feb 2006. Let's see what the Euro can spit out.

547

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 07, 2013, 10:16:58 PM »

A future tip when forecasting:

Never rely solely on models.

I know. From past events and climatology, this is easily over 12" for the area. Some analogs for this storm are the great blizzards of 1983 and 2006. I try not to model hug. Latest 4km NAM has 9" QPF amounts on the jersey shore, next to impossible.

548

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 07, 2013, 05:32:14 PM »

Totals for me

18z GFS: 10-18"
18z NAM: 24-30"
12z Euro: 20-28"
12z NNM: 24-30"
15z SREF Mean: 15-20"

And yet, I don't see how people are still forecasting less than 10" here considering the Euro, which has 2ft for me, has been the best with this storm.

549

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: February 07, 2013, 05:29:16 PM »

... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM EST
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM EST
Saturday.

* Locations... Suffolk County on Long Island.

* Hazard types... heavy snow and strong winds.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 10 to 15 inches... with
localized higher amounts within developing snow bands.

* Winds... north 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Temperatures... temperatures dropping into the 20s by evening.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... the strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur Friday
evening into Saturday morning.

* Impacts... heavy snow and winds will make for dangerous driving
conditions with visibilities near zero in white-out conditions.
In addition... some tree limbs will be downed... causing scattered
power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.
[/font]


Hurricane Force Wind Warning
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ350-080900-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
438 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...INCREASING
TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...BECOMING NE
35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT...BUILDING TO
14 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM EARLY IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT...BECOMING
NW 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 15 TO 20 FT LATE. SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE
EVENING. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO
18 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...BECOMING
NW 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING
TO 2 TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...BUILDING
TO 5 TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO
7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

550

General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove

« on: February 07, 2013, 03:26:47 PM »

My school went into a lock down today after a shooting at a train station nearby. Lots of police in the area and police helicopters were flying until they captured the person. I got to get out this place. 

551

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 07, 2013, 02:58:47 PM »

Both the Euro and NAM have me with 2 feet plus. Blizzard watch in effect, expecting to be upgraded to a warning. Still school going on tomorrow as usual. They don't cancel school for major events until the last minute. They must think these bus drivers can drive through anything. PLEASE! Being in a blizzard is awesome. I've never been on the road in one, but you have to be extremely cautions because in blizzards, the vis can be 0, and the roads can be extremely slippery. Me and many others have waited two years for a storm like this, and we are finally getting one. Thank god. This will put me above average for the entire season. I already have 10.5" for the date, add about 15" + from this storm and we are at the average season total already.

552

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: February 07, 2013, 02:09:10 PM »

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

NYZ078>081-072100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
  EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND
  CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

553

The Game Room / Re: A-Z Weather

« on: February 06, 2013, 10:06:00 PM »

Evaporational Cooling

554

Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013

« on: February 06, 2013, 06:51:34 PM »

There is such a major spread in the forecast totals. Here is what I gathered from local stations and the major broadcasting companies.

TWC: 1-3"
CBS2: 4-8"
CBS Evening News: 12-24"
NBC4: 6-9"

TWC's forecast of 1-3" is absolutely ridiculous and is probably the worst forecast I've ever seen. I don't know what models the local stations are looking at. Most models have us with at least 10". 18z GFS drops around 3.5" of precip. If you assume that even 1.5" of that 3.5" of precip that falls is rain, that's still 20" of snow! So my call is 1 to 2 feet here.

555

Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather

« on: February 06, 2013, 04:05:55 PM »

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&