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Messages - TWCCraig

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31
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 20, 2014, 06:09:51 PM »
38.5°F Overcast

Slowly loosing my snowpack  :cry:

32
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 15, 2014, 09:38:36 AM »
Okay, Craig, you win. :worship:  I'll never see those snowfall totals this winter, and you're going to get more soon.

Well, I'll be honest. My seasonal average is very close to yours, just a little over 2 feet each season. But we can very varying winters here depending on high latitude teleconnections. Some winters we get 0" of snow, some we get buried. Last 20 years have been very varying. After the awesome winter of 2010-2011, we only got 4.7" the entire next season. Most of the greatest winters here have been in the last 20 years so we've been lucky.

35.8°F Overcast

Getting ready for more snow.

33
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 14, 2014, 04:28:57 PM »

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 am Saturday to 4 am
EST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect
from 11 am Saturday to 4 am EST Sunday.

* Locations... western Suffolk County in New York and New Haven and
Middlesex counties in Connecticut.

* Hazard types... snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. There is a
low potential for as much as 3 to 5 inches.

* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

* Visibilities... one half mile or less at times.

* Timing... late Saturday morning through Saturday night.

* Impacts... hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visibilities
and snow covered roads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.

34
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 14, 2014, 02:59:10 PM »
40.3°F Sunny/Windy

Season total up to 56.4". Surpassing the great winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 both had around 53" to 55". With more threats coming and a possible pattern reload, we could easily surpass 60" and make a run at 70". Unlikely to make beat at 90.75", which is the record set in the winter of 1995-1996.

35
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 13, 2014, 08:12:37 PM »
The HRRR has been hands down the best computer model to use this winter here. It has been perfect in every storm here this winter and it scored a coup this time around. It was the only model to show 10"+ here last night while most models had 4-8". Ended up with 11.5". Now the HRRR wants to dump another 12" over NYC in a deformation band as the closed H5 low passes over to the east. We'll see if it continues to dominate.

The HRRR did ok here, it was wrong about was there being a transition too heavy snow near the onset of the storm, it was heavy sleet instead. Thank god it changed over from freezing rain when it did it saved us from a terrible icestorm. I got very nervous and worried when I saw it already accumulating on the power lines within just a few hours of starting, I can only imagine what another 12 hours of that crap would have done.

Also the global models went a bit overboard on the ice potential here, but the NAM was definitely one of if not the worst overall. It kept insisting we were gonna get 1-2 inches of ice here. What the heck was it smokin'? :huh:

The NAM hasn't been that good with winter storms here either. I noticed it's usually too aggressive with WAA in the mid levels. The GFS was poor here, as it is in most east coast storms, can't handle southern stream energy well. The HRRR is backing off on the snow totals here. About 2" here and 4" in the city. We are about to get pounded with heavy rain/sleet and thunderstorms at 33 degrees. What a way to ruin a snow pack. About 15" depth here.

What a storm for the entire east coast.

36
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 13, 2014, 07:34:28 PM »
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-140130-
BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN
UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN
QUEENS-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN
UNION-
712 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 830 PM...

A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH 830
PM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.


A COATING OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 830 PM. IN
ADDITION...SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 9
AND 10 PM...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

37
Winter Weather / Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 13, 2014, 06:18:25 PM »
The HRRR has been hands down the best computer model to use this winter here. It has been perfect in every storm here this winter and it scored a coup this time around. It was the only model to show 10"+ here last night while most models had 4-8". Ended up with 11.5". Now the HRRR wants to dump another 12" over NYC in a deformation band as the closed H5 low passes over to the east. We'll see if it continues to dominate.

38
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 13, 2014, 09:28:39 AM »
32.0 Heaviest snow ever

Local NWS saying 3-4" of snow every 30 minutes with these 40-50dbz bands. Epic.

39
General Discussion / Re: Happy Birthday, phw115wvwx!
« on: February 12, 2014, 04:40:37 PM »
Happy Birthday Patrick!

40
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 12, 2014, 04:39:44 PM »
...STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION ON THURSDAY...

NYZ078>081-130515-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.140213T0500Z-140214T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0005.140213T0500Z-140214T1100Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
403 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOWEST AMOUNTS
  ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MIX WITH
  SLEET AND RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
  IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
  THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION...
  HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO
  COLLAPSE AND TREES BRANCHES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

41
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 11, 2014, 03:26:41 PM »
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

NYZ078>081-120500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.140213T0500Z-140214T1100Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
322 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL ACCUMULATE
  BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
  PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND END AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS ON THURSDAY. IN
  ADDITION...HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF
  STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MPS

42
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 09, 2014, 05:54:51 PM »
... Snow overspreading the area...

Light to occasionally moderate snow will overspread the tri-state
region from west to east this evening. The snow will reduce
visibilities to around a half mile at times. A widespread one to
two inches of accumulation can be expected. The snow will come to
an end late tonight. Use extra caution if traveling this evening.


Jmc

43
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 05, 2014, 10:20:03 PM »
32.2°F Overcast

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for no snow, no ZR, or sleet. It's in effect for a copious amount of black ice to form tonight from the slush on the roads.

44
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 05, 2014, 02:24:38 PM »
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/NYC

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Connecticut

... Fairfield County...
   Shelton 9.5 930 am 2/05 public
   Danbury 9.0 750 am 2/05 public
   Newtown 8.6 130 PM 2/05 public
   Norwalk 8.0 127 PM 2/05 public
   Ridgefield 8.0 700 am 2/05 public
   Darien 8.0 600 am 2/05 CT dot
   Weston 8.0 615 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Brookfield 8.0 930 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Bridgeport Airport 7.5 1215 PM 2/05 NWS coop
   New Canaan 6.3 600 am 2/05 CT dot

... Middlesex County...
   Clinton 6.3 930 am 2/05 public
   Westbrook 5.0 800 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Old Saybrook 3.8 600 am 2/05 CT dot
   Westfield 3.0 835 am 2/05 public

... New Haven County...
   Southbury 9.5 900 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Yalesville 9.0 1010 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Guilford 9.0 815 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Hamden 8.5 750 am 2/05 trained spotter
   North Haven 8.0 1005 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Oxford 8.0 820 am 2/05 public
   Naugatuck 7.8 715 am 2/05 public
   Milford 7.0 830 am 2/05 public
   Orange 5.9 700 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Meriden 5.1 755 am 2/05 trained spotter


... New London County...
   Voluntown 5.0 740 am 2/05 public
   Gales Ferry 4.5 957 am 2/05 trained spotter

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Teterboro 6.5 1000 am 2/05 FAA contract observer
   Franklin Lakes 6.0 600 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Saddle Brook 5.9 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Ridgewood 5.5 1145 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Mahwah 5.5 1000 am 2/05 public
   Wyckoff 5.3 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Rivervale 5.1 720 am 2/05 public
   Glen Rock 5.0 710 am 2/05 public
   Bergenfield 5.0 915 am 2/05 trained spotter
   East Rutherford 4.7 842 am 2/05 public

... Essex County...
   Cedar Grove 5.1 715 am 2/05 public
   Verona 5.0 700 am 2/05 public
   North Caldwell 4.8 730 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Newark Airport 4.6 700 am 2/05 FAA contract observer
   Bloomfield 4.6 120 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   Roseland 4.5 915 am 2/05 public
   West Orange 4.5 800 am 2/05 public

... Hudson County...
   Harrison 4.5 830 am 2/05 trained spotter
   North Bergen 4.0 1212 PM 2/05 Emergency Mngr
   Hoboken 3.2 900 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Passaic County...
   West Milford 6.5 1240 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   Bloomingdale 5.7 103 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   Wayne 5.0 659 am 2/05 trained spotter

New York

... Bronx County...
   dodgewood 6.5 1036 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Bedford Park 5.5 530 am 2/05 public
   Parkchester 5.1 1152 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Pelham Parkway house 5.0 900 am 2/05 public
   1 NE Riverdale 4.5 1009 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Kings (Brooklyn) County...
   Sheepshead Bay 2.0 630 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Nassau County...
   Bayville 5.3 1030 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Locust Valley 5.0 921 am 2/05 broadcast media
   Woodbury 4.5 900 am 2/05 broadcast media
   North Merrick 3.0 700 am 2/05 public
   Albertson 3.0 830 am 2/05 public
   North Massapequa 1.5 730 am 2/05 NWS employee

... New York County...
   Central Park 4.0 900 am 2/05 Central Park Zoo

... Orange County...
   Newburgh 12.5 900 am 2/05 public
   Middletown 11.4 1000 am 2/05 public
   Monroe 11.2 930 am 2/05 public
   Warwick 11.0 700 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Hamptonburgh 11.0 1030 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Greenville 11.0 850 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Otisville 11.0 136 PM 2/05 public
   Goshen 10.5 837 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Harriman 9.5 800 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Westtown 9.5 1115 am 2/05 trained spotter
   New Windsor 9.2 810 am 2/05 public
   Port Jervis 8.7 700 am 2/05 NWS coop
   Washingtonville 8.3 1041 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Greenwood Lake 8.0 945 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Blooming Grove 8.0 847 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Cornwall On Hudson 7.5 700 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Walden 7.0 716 am 2/05 emergency manager
   Fort Montgomery 6.9 1100 am 2/05 traine spotter
   Mountain Lodge park 6.5 845 am 2/05 emergency manager

... Putnam County...
   Kent Cliffs 9.5 932 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Carmel 9.2 800 am 2/05 NWS coop
   Cold Spring 8.7 1100 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Mahopac 8.0 1130 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Brewster 8.0 700 am 2/05 public

... Queens County...
   NYC/La Guardia 3.3 100 PM 2/05 FAA contract observer
   Astoria 3.0 830 am 2/05 public
   NYC/JFK Airport 2.2 700 am 2/05 FAA contract observer
   Middle Village 2.1 525 am 2/05 public
   Cedar Manor 1.3 1010 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Richmond County...
   Huguenot 3.6 730 am 2/05 public
   Sunnyside 3.2 930 am 2/05 public

... Rockland County...
   Tallman 7.0 800 am 2/05 trained spotter
   New City 6.2 958 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Valley Cottage 6.1 730 am 2/05 public
   Orangeburg 5.5 800 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Airmont 5.5 725 am 2/05 public
   Nyack 5.2 815 am 2/05 public

... Suffolk County...
   Orient 4.5 800 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Huntington 3.3 945 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Smithtown 3.0 900 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Stony Brook 3.0 120 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   North Babylon 2.5 700 am 2/05 public
   Centereach 2.5 830 am 2/05 trained spotter
   West Babylon 2.5 1215 PM 2/05 NWS employee
   Upton 2.3 1000 am 2/05 NWS office
   Baiting Hollow 2.1 700 am 2/05 NWS coop
   Mattituck 2.0 530 am 2/05 trained spotter
   North Patchogue 2.0 800 am 2/05 public
   Islip Airport 1.8 700 am 2/05 FAA contract observer
   Eastport 1.5 745 am 2/05 NWS employee

... Westchester County...
   Armonk 9.1 1100 am 2/05 public
   1 SSW Crompond 9.0 800 am 2/05 public
   Somers 8.5 730 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Yonkers 7.0 1215 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   Yorktown Heights 7.0 915 am 2/05 NWS coop
   Bronxville 6.5 800 am 2/05 public


***********************storm total ice***********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                          ice of
                     /inches/ measurement

Connecticut

... New Haven County...
   Meriden 0.03 115 PM 2/05 ASOS

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Fort Lee 0.30 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Wyckoff 0.20 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Washington Township 0.10 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Saddle Brook 0.10 1000 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Essex County...
   Maplewood 0.10 745 am 2/05 public

... Hudson County...
   North Bergen 0.25 1030 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Hoboken 0.10 900 am 2/05 trained spotter

... Passaic County...
   Hawthorne 0.34 1130 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Bloomingdale 0.20 103 PM 2/05 trained spotter

... Union County...
   Roselle 0.11 1136 am 2/05 trained spotter

New York

... Nassau County...
   Uniondale 0.20 945 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Bayville 0.15 1030 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Rockville Centre 0.12 1030 am 2/05 public

... New York County...
   Central Park 0.25 951 am 2/05 ASOS

... Orange County...
   Montgomery Airport 0.01 100 PM 2/05 ASOS

... Suffolk County...
   Centereach 0.25 123 PM 2/05 trained spotter
   North Babylon 0.15 700 am 2/05 public
   Shirley Airport 0.13 700 am 2/05 ASOS
   Smithtown 0.10 900 am 2/05 trained spotter
   Upton 0.10 1240 PM 2/05 NWS office

45
Your Local Weather / Re: Long Island Weather
« on: February 03, 2014, 06:56:39 PM »
Got 7.2" with this one. Round 2 coming up

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-040100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
624 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
  MUCH OF THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...SNOW REMAINS LONGER
  BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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