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Hurricane Central / 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
« on: May 10, 2010, 12:56:40 AM »
What's your predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, beginning June 1st?
Mine are for 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
Reasons?
- Record-level sea surface temperatures observed in the Atlantic, surpassing those recorded in 2005. In addition, TCHP is at the highest level ever observed for this point in May.
- Below-average upper-level wind shear across the development regions of the basin, running between 5 and 35 knots below normal.
- El Nino is dying or already dead as we speak. The Nino 3.4 region is down to 0.0C which is exactly neutral. The other Ninos are either neutral with a warm bias or remaining at weak El Nino status, but are expected to decrease to "neutral" before the start of the hurricane season. A neutral to cold bias or weak La Nina is predicted for this year's hurricane season, which is similar to what we saw beginning in the autumn of 2005.
- Above-average moisture is forecast for the Atlantic during this year's hurricane season as below-normal air pressures are expected throughout the hurricane season. This will disallow dry air and Saharan dust to roam the Atlantic as it did in seasons such as 2007. African (Cape Verde) waves will be allowed to develop free of too much African dust and subsidence.
Mine are for 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
Reasons?
- Record-level sea surface temperatures observed in the Atlantic, surpassing those recorded in 2005. In addition, TCHP is at the highest level ever observed for this point in May.
- Below-average upper-level wind shear across the development regions of the basin, running between 5 and 35 knots below normal.
- El Nino is dying or already dead as we speak. The Nino 3.4 region is down to 0.0C which is exactly neutral. The other Ninos are either neutral with a warm bias or remaining at weak El Nino status, but are expected to decrease to "neutral" before the start of the hurricane season. A neutral to cold bias or weak La Nina is predicted for this year's hurricane season, which is similar to what we saw beginning in the autumn of 2005.
- Above-average moisture is forecast for the Atlantic during this year's hurricane season as below-normal air pressures are expected throughout the hurricane season. This will disallow dry air and Saharan dust to roam the Atlantic as it did in seasons such as 2007. African (Cape Verde) waves will be allowed to develop free of too much African dust and subsidence.