Hurricane Tomas

[TWCToday]

Huge storm with the potential to do some serious damage. It's expected to become a major cane

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND

[Localonthe8s]

Huge storm with the potential to do some serious damage. It's expected to become a major cane

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND

....at this late in the season? It's almost getting to november at any rate

[Charismatic Applesauce]

That means only two names left (Virginie and Walter)! This has been an interesting season.

[toxictwister00]

Huge storm with the potential to do some serious damage. It's expected to become a major cane

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND

A possible Gulf threat maybe...? Anyways it shouldn't have taken this long to be named it was pretty obvious it was already a tropical storm yesterday just from the way it looked on satellite.

[Eric]

That means only two names left (Virginie and Walter)! This has been an interesting season.

It has been.  As I said not too long ago, it really wasn't until September when I stopped thinking that the predictions for this season were wrong.  After all, June and July were especially quiet months (though this isn't too far away from normal), and August wasn't particularly spectacular.  I remember thinking that the only way this could turn out to be the banner year they were predicting would be if September was absolutely madcap, which it was... and October, too.

Will this year have to start using the Greek alphabet again like in 2005?  I doubt it, but if I have to give a prediction, I'd say Alpha is at least a possibility: 40%.  Down to 20% for Beta, but that's it.

[Star4000 Fan]

It was either Jim Cantore or Chris Warren who said that 2010 is now in a three-way tie for the third most active hurricane season on record (modern, satellite era).  1995's "Tanya" was the last storm that year.

By the end of October, 2005 - we were at Beta already.  The last storm (#27 "Zeta") was the longest-lived storm going into 2006.  The last advisory for the 2005 season was January 6, 2006 - the NHC people were happy to call it a season at that point. 

[phw115wvwx]

Tomas is nearing hurricane strength.  The winds have increased to 70 mph as of 5 AM EDT.  This storm doesn't look like it may threaten the Gulf though as an upper-level trough will stop Tomas's westward motion as you can tell from the forecast cone.  It could possibly take a sharp northward turn from that point, but there's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast here.

[weatherlover94]

any thoughts on mabie a us hit?

[TWCmatthew]

any thoughts on mabie a us hit?

It probably will become a Cat 3 at least, but as for a U.S. hit, still too far off in the future, but Florida looks like the most likely track, (if it's going to hit the U.S.)

[weatherlover94]

defiantly one to watch no doubt

[phw115wvwx]

Tomas is now the 12th hurricane of this season with winds of 75 mph as of 11 AM EDT.  Did anyone here expect to see two Atlantic hurricanes simultaneously in late October?

[toxictwister00]

Tomas is now the 12th hurricane of this season with winds of 75 mph as of 11 AM EDT.  Did anyone here expect to see two Atlantic hurricanes simultaneously in late October?

If I didn't think La Nina played a factor in this, then no I wouldn't.

[phw115wvwx]

Hurricane Tomas has intensified this evening as winds are up to 90 mph.

[Mr. Rainman]

Tomas has substantially weakened back to a disorganized tropical storm, with winds of 45 mph. It looks like the U.S. won't being seeing any major effects from this storm. Haiti, however, is dead in Tomas's path.

The storm is forecast to become a hurricane again with sustained winds of 90 mph before making landfall. When it leaves the island, winds are expected to have died down to 80 mph.

There are only 29 days left in the hurricane season, which is plenty of time for three more storms to form. My percentage chance of Tropical Storm Alpha forming before season's end: 70%.

EDIT: Significant Wave Heights near Tomas's center are between 15-20 feet. Ocean temperatures in storm's path are between 84-87 degrees.

[Jonathon]

Here's the satellite image



5 day forecast map