Hurricane Sandy

[TWCCraig]

Sorry for double post!

I think it's a bad call by the NHC not to issue any warnings/watches for the region. Local offices are now issuing individual advisories which I think will make the public not take this storm seriously.

[WeatherWitness]

This question is for Patrick, I thought I would ask it here because it would be more relevant to the conversation. My question is would the NHC issue tropical weather warnings for a storm that will most likely be post-tropical by the time it gets here? I'm wondering if the NHC will issue warnings for us or just our local NWS office will have to issue several individual warnings like Hind Wind Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, etc. For the sake of saving lives, I think issuing a tropical storm warning or hurricane warning would be much easier for common people to understand rather than having several different warnings and have everyone understand what each warning means.

If NHC drops a cyclone from tropical status before it reaches landfall, then they can't issue any tropical watches or warnings.  It would be up to the individual NWS offices at that point to issue other advisories, watches, and warnings.  A cyclone has to become completely extratropical for the tropical status to be dropped, so I think NHC will likely leave Sandy as tropical all the way to landfall as indicated in the forecast track.

As of the latest advisory, NHC now has Sandy as extra-tropical before making landfall.  The "strength" will still be a hurricane, but I guess this is why no watches or warnings have been issued for the affected areas.

What "tropical characteristics" will it be losing?

[TWCCraig]

This question is for Patrick, I thought I would ask it here because it would be more relevant to the conversation. My question is would the NHC issue tropical weather warnings for a storm that will most likely be post-tropical by the time it gets here? I'm wondering if the NHC will issue warnings for us or just our local NWS office will have to issue several individual warnings like Hind Wind Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, etc. For the sake of saving lives, I think issuing a tropical storm warning or hurricane warning would be much easier for common people to understand rather than having several different warnings and have everyone understand what each warning means.

If NHC drops a cyclone from tropical status before it reaches landfall, then they can't issue any tropical watches or warnings.  It would be up to the individual NWS offices at that point to issue other advisories, watches, and warnings.  A cyclone has to become completely extratropical for the tropical status to be dropped, so I think NHC will likely leave Sandy as tropical all the way to landfall as indicated in the forecast track.

As of the latest advisory, NHC now has Sandy as extra-tropical before making landfall.  The "strength" will still be a hurricane, but I guess this is why no watches or warnings have been issued for the affected areas.

What "tropical characteristics" will it be losing?

It will be deriving most of its energy from baroclinic forcing at that point. Cold air infiltrating and the NW side and warm air being sucked in on the SE side of this storm will make it extra-tropical. Tropical cyclones derive all of their energy from warm air masses. This storm, by the time it gets here, will be deriving its energy from both cold and warm air.

[Mr. Rainman]

As for the warnings, the entire Northeast is now under multiple watches/warnings/advisories, so the warning is definitely out. I really hope people make some common sense decisions in these areas and evacuate or at least make or be completing preparations for Sandy, especially those in coastal and low-lying areas, as I have a feeling the flooding in these areas could be unprecedented.

[Localonthe8s]

It looks like the landfall Sandy will make will be somewhere over central jersey. South jersey will get the bands but the eye (does the storm even have one) will make its mark somewhere over northern OCean County. This is a bad area...extremely low lying area. Tons of swamps and rivers does not help

[TWCCraig]

I agree. A Central NJ landfall is my best bet. This would make it a nightmare scenario for NNJ, NYC and LI. Significant storm surge, extreme high winds and heavy rain. 925mb winds over LI are forecast to be 80-110kts which means a small possibility to see gusts up to 100mph at the surface. Wow 

[TWCToday]

Sorry for double post!

I think it's a bad call by the NHC not to issue any warnings/watches for the region. Local offices are now issuing individual advisories which I think will make the public not take this storm seriously.

I had several long discussions at this past conference I attended about public perception and getting the word out. One person I talked to was actually hired to provide suggestions for rewording warnings. There were so many little things that added up to the confusing mess we have now. For example: why are warnings in caps? There may have been technological limits in the old days but certainly not anymore. The person I talked to provided lots of suggestions for improving warnings so that the average human being on this planet could understand it. Add icons or graphics for example. Of course all of the changes were "noted" but I doubt you will ever see any.

The NWS (NHC, etc) has a public image problem. Its not improving but only getting worse. This case is a perfect example of how bureaucracy and rules get in the way of the end goal.... saving lives! If the weather center ever hopes to be a "Weather Ready Nation" they better start preparing themselves rather than the public. If a Hurricane Warning is issued for Delaware and they receive 70mph winds, 12in of rain and major coastal flooding I doubt the public will be in an outrage that they issued a warning when the system was developing non tropical characteristics. ugh!

I dare you to ask the first non weather person you can find what they think a "Wind Warning" means then ask them what a "Hurricane Warning" means.

As for the warnings, the entire Northeast is now under multiple watches/warnings/advisories, so the warning is definitely out. I really hope people make some common sense decisions in these areas and evacuate or at least make or be completing preparations for Sandy, especially those in coastal and low-lying areas, as I have a feeling the flooding in these areas could be unprecedented.

I currently have a: High Wind Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Watch for my area. Not a person in my area relates any of those to a major storm. We have Coastal Flood Warnings all the time, Flood Watches are nothing new either. I keep hearing the same thing from everyone I know outside the wx community "oh it wont be that bad". ~sigh~

[phw115wvwx]

All the models have Sandy pinned for a landfall in New Jersey on Monday night.  NHC is letting the individual offices put up their own warnings that were already in place due to Sandy probably becoming non-tropical before landfall.  They also issued a report to explain the reasoning here for the warning strategy you're all seeing:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

Martin, I can actually explain a lot of the reasons you see these problems:  The NWS is graded every year by their performance statistics that are sent to Congress to prove we're doing a good job and deserve to be funded at all for next year.  With the government trying to cut the deficit, this issue becomes a big deal for the NWS's survival.  Probability of detection for hurricane conditions is one of those statistics that is graded, so NHC has to observe the rules or risk getting hit badly in the eyes of everyone else above for issuing tropical warnings when a storm isn't tropical.  They're already aware that things aren't perfect, and there's a social science team working for the NWS to work on improving warnings over the next several years.  I think you actually ran into one earlier based on your remarks.

However, the public also needs to do its job by learning about weather and what we do.  A "warning" for any hazard means your life and property is at serious risk, and you should take action now.  There's so many people in the public and even in our government that doesn't know who the NWS is and what we do.  We're confused with TWC all the time.  As a result, it's very easy for everyone to criticize us.  I've already heard many NWS forecasters say we don't get enough credit and appreciation for the job we do despite trying to follow the rules that have been handed down to us beyond our control.  I'm sorry if I seem rather defensive here, but I'm working 13 hours of overtime in a matter of four days just to give you all extra balloon launches to help the models pinpoint Sandy's track.  Try working a 2 PM to 3:30 AM shift twice in a row, and maybe you'll see why I feel a little unappreciated by these comments.

[jtmal0723]

Related but unrelated, felt I should share:

[Localonthe8s]

Related but unrelated, felt I should share:

It's been passed on all over FB.

All of NJ's state offices and universities are closing tomorrow. Rutgers is closing tomorrow and Tuesday.

[Localonthe8s]

I REALLY wish I could watch TWC right now but I have no access to a TV in my dorm. I am hearing they are reporting live from the AC boardwalk is this true???

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/thousands_flee_atlantic_city_a.html

[Mr. Rainman]

With less than 24 hours before landfall, all I can say to the people of the Northeast and New England is "godspeed."

[TWCCraig]

Sandy is a 946mb 85mph Cat 1. hurricane, strengthening more than expected and it's not even over the gulf stream yet. I see a disaster for us.

[toxictwister00]

Never in my life have I seen the Stock Market close for anything other than a national or federal holiday. It will be closed today and possibly tomorrow.

I really hope the folks who were told to evacuate got the heck out of the way especially if they're in areas where they rode out Irene last year because this will be a lot WORSE. This ain't no Irene were screwin' around with! Irene is a treat compared to this nasty Halloween trick Sandy is going to unleash.

[TWCCraig]

Never in my life have I seen the Stock Market close for anything other than a national or federal holiday.

It was closed last year for Irene.