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Author Topic: Hurricane Sandy  (Read 20963 times)

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Hurricane Sandy
« on: October 22, 2012, 07:53:02 PM »
Tropical Storm Sandy has formed south of Jamaica. This storm may become very interesting as models turn in into a hybrid low pressure system and possibly drag it into New England by the weekend - this is far away and there are still a lot of uncertainties but it is something to keep an eye on.

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phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2012, 12:01:56 AM »
Sandy is up to 45 mph winds, but it's currently not moving.  It should begin to drift northward once the steering currents aloft allow it.
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2012, 04:16:45 PM »
 :wow: :faint:
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Offline cc17926

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2012, 04:20:51 PM »
« Last Edit: October 24, 2012, 01:53:09 AM by phw115wvwx »
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2012, 04:22:33 PM »
Quote from: TWCCraig on October 23, 2012, 04:16:45 PM
:wow: :faint:



The models have indeed been very impressive and aggressive with this hybrid low over the past few days, and right now I have increasing concern that a landfall - or at least some significant effects of this storm - will be felt across New England with potentially very heavy snow in the Appalachians. Still, the models have a lot to sort out, and I am very suspicious of the extreme low pressure noted by the models - especially since the likelihood of such an event occurring is highly unlikely - if not damn near impossible (937 mb? What?!).

For those of you following this, I would point to HPC's medium range surface analysis forecast for a good idea on thoughts for this system. Current low pressure is 986 mb and just offshore the coastline for Day 7.
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2012, 04:57:30 PM »
I know you all love seeing the extreme solutions, but my opinion is that Sandy will just harmlessly go out to sea and give the East Coast a little wind and waves.  As you can tell, I'm against the ECMWF solution and favor more in between but closer to the GFS solution.  If I see a major change, then I will definitely reconsider.  It would be a big win for the ECMWF if it verified, but all the models have a bias with not showing storms curving out to sea fast enough.
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2012, 06:47:51 PM »
Even the 18z OP GFS has this system curving back NW a little bit into Nova Scotia, notice how far and tight the pressure gradient extends out. It would still be very windy next week even though the storm might be several hundred miles away.



18z GFS Ensemble Mean:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical204.gif
« Last Edit: October 24, 2012, 01:53:31 AM by phw115wvwx »
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Offline Pop Light Brown

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2012, 11:41:53 PM »
A 937 mb nor'easter? *whistles*
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2012, 12:34:41 PM »
Folks, please don't post such huge images that run off the screen.  Either make them smaller, or change the images to links as I've done above.  I would not put any stock in the 06Z and 18Z models at this point as they don't have upper air data.  Only the 00Z and 12Z models get radiosonde data from all around North America.

Also, Sandy is now a hurricane with winds of 80 mph.  Jamaica is going to be hit well by this one.  The forecast track still takes the storm along the East Coast before turning it eastward.  It doesn't seem like the model solutions have changed yet, but I would expect something to give soon.
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2012, 02:34:41 PM »
12z GFS run takes Sandy to landfall in Southern Maine/ NH @ 948mb. 00z ECMWF makes landfall in New Jersey @ 933mb. 12z ECMWF takes landfall in Southern New Jersey/Maryland/Delaware @ 935mb. Still some huge uncertainty in the models. The storm can make landfall anywhere from Maryland to Nova Scotia according to the models.
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2012, 03:18:22 PM »
HPC is now strongly suggesting major impacts could be felt in New England from this storm. The pressures associated with the models still appear to be highly exaggerated - although pressure could certainly be in the low to mid 970s - possibly high 960s.
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2012, 03:48:03 PM »
Every time I see these models, I'm thinking to myself, "Really?" :blink:  It's a worst-case scenario for New England if it actually came true.  Everything depends on whether Sandy will interact with the upper-level trough over the Great Lakes to pull it westward.  The other alternative is that Sandy will miss the trough and go eastward out to sea but still provide some strong winds and waves for that area.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2012, 08:28:45 PM »
This thing wound up pretty fast, Sunday it looked like crap. Three days later after having phone/internet service again, it caught me by surprise to see were talking about a hurricane. :blink: Sandy is certainly one of the best looking hurricanes I've seen all hurricane season. :yes:
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2012, 01:52:59 AM »
Sandy is now a Category 2 monster with winds of 110 mph. She could very likely become a major hurricane within the next 12 to 24 hours.
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Offline jtmal0723

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Re: Hurricane Sandy
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2012, 09:13:56 AM »

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