Hurricane Paula

[Mike M]

New tropical storm in the Atlantic, already reaching hurricane strength. BTW, what happened to the model maps on weatherunderground?

..New tropical storm forms near the coast of Honduras...Hurricane
Warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...

 

 
summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 84.0w
about 130 mi...210 km ESE of Isla guanaja Honduras
about 365 mi...585 km SSE of Cozumel Mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches

 

 
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

 
the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Punta gruesa northward to Cancun...including
Cozumel.

 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Chetumal northward to south of Punta gruesa.

 
The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border...including the Bay Islands.

 
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

 
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* the coast of Mexico from Punta gruesa northward to Cancun...
including Cozumel

 
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the coast of Honduras from Limon eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border...including the Bay Islands
* the coast of Mexico from Chetumal northward to south of Punta
gruesa

 
a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case 24 to 36 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
imminent in the warning area in Honduras...and that tropical storm
conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in Mexico
within 24 to 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.

 

 
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Paula was
located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 84.0 west. Paula is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected late
Tuesday and early Wednesday.  On the forecast track...the center of
Paula will begin moving away from the coast of Honduras tonight and
Tuesday...and approach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast...and Paula is
expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
aircraft was 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

 

 
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring within the Tropical
Storm Warning area in Honduras. Tropical storm force winds are
expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by
late Tuesday...with hurricane conditions expected by early
Wednesday.

 
Rainfall...Paula is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over northeastern Nicaragua...eastern Honduras
...And the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches are possible in areas of mountainous terrain in Nicaragua
and Honduras...where these rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

 
Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and on the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.

 

 
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory...1100 PM EDT.

 
$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Jonathon]

There you go.





Satellite image of Paula:

[Eric]

It looks like this storm is going to be causing some problems for quite a few people for a while.

[TWCmatthew]

It looks like there's another *chance* to see a landfalling hurricane in Florida.

[Mr. Rainman]

Good Lord, Matthew, it looks like Paula's path is going to be just as eratic as your storm was.

[Zach]

Im having doubts this will add any moisture to areas from Venice, FL north as its been too dry here but i dont doubt a South FL landfall one bit 

[weatherlover94]

looks like this could be a big one for s florida possibly

[phw115wvwx]

I think southern Florida is still a stretch with this storm, especially if it reaches peak intensity and begins weakening before it even leaves the western Caribbean.  Paula has very little steering currents aloft to move it much, so it'll reach hurricane status soon as it stays over open water.  It may just meander for days until some significant system is able to push it forward.

[TWCToday]

Wake me up in 5 days

[Mike M]

HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[TWCToday]

EYE SHAPE CLOSER TO SQUARE THAN CIRCULAR

[TWCmatthew]

Earlier this morning, TWC had Paula going over Cuba and weakening, I don't know if that's still the same, I'll check.

[Jonathon]

This satellite image is zoomed in right on the eye of Paula.
It also loops.

[WeatherWitness]

10 AM CDT: Paula is a CAT 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph. No threat is expected for the US, though. The very southern tip of Florida (and I guess the Keys) will even only be getting a "low" impact, as according the weather.com.

[Star4000 Fan]

It's down to 85mph, but the forecast track has the center of Paula going along the coast of Cuba for three days becoming an post-tropical depression by then.  It's like it's tracing the coastline!  That's weird.

Wasn't Paloma the P storm of 2008 that also hit Cuba?