Tropical Storm Karen

[Trevor]

More details to come with a special advisory within the hour...

What we know now:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

[Trevor]

OFFICIAL:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

I was puzzled as to why Hurricane Watches were out for part of the Gulf Coast until I found out Karen was a 60mph TS.

This ought to be a fun weekend here with Karen, it'll be the first named tropical system this season to affect us.

EDIT: Plus it'll be fun to hear one of our local mets Karen Minton talk about a potential T.S turned hurricane named after her.

[SamRichardson92]

Auto-updating Information on KAREN

[toxictwister00]

Rainfall Potential from Tropical Storm Karen

IMAGE IS TIME SENSITIVE

[toxictwister00]

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 3
Location: 23.3°N 88.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[phw115wvwx]

Karen has weakened overnight and this morning due to the persistent shear and some dry air advection.  Winds have diminished to 50 mph, and now it seems Karen may not reach hurricane strength as was originally expected.  It still will pose a good rainfall threat for the Southeast, but how it interacts with an approaching cold front will be the key to where it goes and what it does from here.

[Warren Faidley]

Good coverage by TWC on Karen.

Have not pulled the plug on chasing Karen yet.

Have to make decision soon. I think there may be some rapid development, as convection is starting to explode near the circulation center, but likely not enough time for it to become a major hurricane or produce a serious storm surge. Then again, remember Hurricane Charlie?

Be safe!

Warren Faidley

Disaster Survival Expert

Follow my chases live on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/warrenfaidley

[toxictwister00]

Here are my thoughts...

[phw115wvwx]

It's another win for the European model.  The GFS was too aggressive with predicting Karen to become a hurricane and taking it further eastward than where it is now.  Karen is a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 mph due to shear and dry air, and it's likely that Karen could make landfall near New Orleans on Sunday morning and move eastward along the Gulf Coast as just a tropical depression.  We still must worry about flash flooding in the East on Monday as a cold front arrives and drags tropical moisture from Karen northward.

[Metarvo]

This has been a rather weak hurricane season if I do say so myself.  I honestly didn't expect Karen to do too much (nor did I necessarily want it to do so).  At least gas prices have been kept a little lower this year.  In any case, the historical peak is over.

[SamRichardson92]

Karen is no longer a tropical storm. Downgraded to a depression.

[WeatherWitness]

Karen is no longer a tropical storm. Downgraded to a depression.

Wow, and it hasn't even made landfall yet.  Not only that, but Karen is now forecast to take a track more due eastward.  I guess this all has to do with the cold front that is currently marching across the country.

[phw115wvwx]

The shear has taken its toll on Karen.  NHC has declared it a remnant low and sent the final advisory at 11 AM EDT.  Tropical moisture should stream northward along the approaching cold front that could cause potential flooding in heavier downpours over poor drainage areas, but even this threat could be reduced now.

[Lightning]

Bummer.  I was hoping Karen would bring us a lot of needed rain, since October is our driest month, although the cold front is bringing rain as I type this.