TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on September 08, 2010, 11:26:52 AM
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 081459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.7N 23.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Another tropical storm already? :thrilled: This season is becoming quite active! :dance:
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Tis the season as they say!
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woah... where did this thing come from? :blink:
According to some maps I saw on the NWS, it looks like it has a tiny potential to become a hurricane. But it's too early to say. It seems like tropical storms like Hermine and Igor are basically playing peek-a-boo with us. :rolleyes:
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This storm has a more interesting track... it may actually hit the US coast, even though it still has at least two weeks before it will probably make landfall anywhere.
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Here's some long range models
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Here's some long range models
Interesting that the main track is on the lower end than right in the middle, looks like right now it could be a FL or EC hit, but too early to say for sure.
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I'm going to say it's an Earl-like storm as heads towards the U.S. (for now).
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Computer Models
Notice the new trend in the ensembled models
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I barely got Earl right but I call fish again!
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I have to agree with you Martin.
Here's what it looks like on Satellite:
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_sat.jpg)
It looks like it's going to be a Cat 2 Hurricane.
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_5day.gif)
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I have to agree with you Martin.
Here's what it looks like on Satellite:
([url]http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_sat.jpg[/url])
Whats interesting is that the NHC gave a lemon to the circulation just to the right above Igor.
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From the ensemble model that Alex posted, it looks like Igor is going to pull another Danielle by making a gradual northward turn and staying far away from the US (and maybe even Bermuda). I guess it's still too hard to tell this far out. :thinking:
The hurricane season is getting active, but, as of now, it's no where near close to the activity of the 2005 hurricane season. People who predicted that this hurricane season was going to be like that of 2005 can't really say "I told you so" until we get through ALL the names and have at least one major hurricane make a direct landfall on the US. Heck, Igor is the equivalent name of Ike back in 2008, and that hit the US right around this time. :yes:
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From the ensemble model that Alex posted, it looks like Igor is going to pull another Danielle by making a gradual northward turn and staying far away from the US (and maybe even Bermuda). I guess it's still too hard to tell this far out. :thinking:
The hurricane season is getting active, but, as of now, it's no where near close to the activity of the 2005 hurricane season. People who predicted that this hurricane season was going to be like that of 2005 can't really say "I told you so" until we get through ALL the names and have at least one major hurricane make a direct landfall on the US. Heck, Igor is the equivalent name of Ike back in 2008, and that hit the US right around this time. :yes:
Not sure why anyone even mentioned 2005 when they were forecasting this year. I think it was just to scare and panic people. 05 was a freak of a year.
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I'm not ready to call fish storm on Igor yet, but that seems to be the trend with these Cape Verde storms. It's too soon she's only going 6mph. She ain't rushing to get anywhere anytime soon. :P I think it's gonna depend on whether or not another trough moves in over the Atlantic and Igor takes advantage of a weakness and curves on out.
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I'm not ready to call fish storm on Igor yet, but that seems to be the trend with these Cape Verde storms. It's too soon she's only going 6mph. She ain't rushing to get anywhere anytime soon. :P I think it's gonna depend on whether or not another trough moves in over the Atlantic and Igor takes advantage of a weakness and curves on out.
Is Igor a she :P What a strange name anyway for a storm
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I'm not ready to call fish storm on Igor yet, but that seems to be the trend with these Cape Verde storms. It's too soon she's only going 6mph. She ain't rushing to get anywhere anytime soon. :P I think it's gonna depend on whether or not another trough moves in over the Atlantic and Igor takes advantage of a weakness and curves on out.
Is Igor a she :P What a strange name anyway for a storm
He,she or both. :P
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Well, to be technical, in this case Igor is a he since Hermine was a she(if you didn't know, the names alternate he/she). I thought a couple weeks ago with a name like Igor, that's something to watch out for and it may be a scary one.
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Well, to be technical, in this case Igor is a he since Hermine was a she(if you didn't know, the names alternate he/she). I thought a couple weeks ago with a name like Igor, that's something to watch out for and it may be a scary one.
I know it's male to female alternating on this list, but the name doesn't sound that masculine to me imo and plus that was a simple mistake anyway.
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Updated computer models:
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_model.gif)
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_ensmodel.gif)
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Igor has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph at 5 PM EDT. It's fighting some shear at the moment, but the models forecast the shear to relax over the next few days. It's going to be a slow developing storm. Igor is way too far out in the Atlantic for any reliable predictions on the threat to land.
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Igor has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph at 5 PM EDT. It's fighting some shear at the moment, but the models forecast the shear to relax over the next few days. It's going to be a slow developing storm. Igor is way too far out in the Atlantic for any reliable predictions on the threat to land.
Statistically most storms that form here turn out to sea. That little devil circulation is hurting Igor. Its like a parasitic twin
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models shifting a little south this eve....i think we may be in for it with this one and if not this one then if Julia forms in the carribian then it has almost 0% chance of NOT impacting the us could have a charley,Dolly,Dennis track possible :yes:
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(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rs51u5UHxdA/TAVEB6T9qBI/AAAAAAAABck/gwm81qUmtYc/s1600/MartyFeldmanIgor.jpg)
:P
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Igor is back to a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph at 11 AM EDT. The shear is relaxing around it, so it should be able to intensify over the next 5 days.
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Hmmm. Model watching time!
REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT INTENSITY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR
WILL GROW IN SIZE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LARGE-SIZED HURRICANE THAT WILL LIKELY RECURVE OUT TO SEA.
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Hello Hurricane Igor
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Igor is going at 17 mph its looking like the big Fish storm
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From the current projected paths, I am seeing another Danielle or Earl. :thinking: It's like deja vu. :blink:
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From the current projected paths, I am seeing another Danielle or Earl. :thinking: It's like deja vu. :blink:
Its a bit north of where Earl was when it was in this area. Perhaps a Danielle?
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From the current projected paths, I am seeing another Danielle or Earl. :thinking: It's like deja vu. :blink:
Its a bit north of where Earl was when it was in this area. Perhaps a Danielle?
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_ensmodel.gif)
All signs are pointing to another "Danielle" situation.
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i wouldnt be so sure we see another danielle type track because the cone has it more of a threat to the us right now....its going to have to make a sudden sharp turn soon in order for us to see a danielle situation witch i just dont see right now....more like an earl and mabie a hanna 08 type track
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Computer models:
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_model.gif)
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Hurricane Igor has made a drastic jump to 135 mph winds, which prompted a special 2:30 PM advisory from NHC. The pressure has plummeted from 988 mb to 950 mb in less than 10 hours. Igor is now a Category 4 hurricane, and it may not be finished with its rapid intensification phase.
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look at the eyewall!
(http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/512/at201011sat.th.jpg) (http://img818.imageshack.us/i/at201011sat.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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He's going annular now, so perfectly symmetrical overall. This would be our third hurricane to do so behind Danielle and Earl (only briefly).
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Hurricane Igor will be the longest lasting major hurricane since Ivan. I expect it to reach a cat 5
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((BREAKING NEWS)): GOOGLE MAPS NOW HAS IGOR WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH....10 MPH SHY OF CAT 5 STATUS ....THE GOOD NEWS THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT RIGHT AGAIN BUT BRINGING A WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR BERMUDA PUTTING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ON BERMUDA:((BREAKING NEWS)) :no:
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This one is STRONG! :thrilled: A Category 5 hurricane has winds >155 mph; the NHC predicts Igor to have winds as high as 155 mph, but that could easily mean that it could be a Cat 5 with a difference of only 1 mph! Maybe it's a good thing (for the US anyways...not sure about Bermuda) that Igor will turn north like Danielle. :yes:
P.S. Why in the world are all of the major hurricanes doing the northward turn this year? :wacko: It's starting to become a trend.
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((BREAKING NEWS)): GOOGLE MAPS NOW HAS IGOR WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH....10 MPH SHY OF CAT 5 STATUS ....THE GOOD NEWS THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT RIGHT AGAIN BUT BRINGING A WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR BERMUDA PUTTING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ON BERMUDA:((BREAKING NEWS)) :no:
Google maps? I assume you are referring to recon data or something?
This storm looks like it may go annular to me
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane)
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LATEST INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR (11 PM EDT ADVISORY)
Winds: 150 mph [CAT 4]
Moving: W 13 mph
Pressure: 935 mb
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As a little factoid, Igor's pressure dropped 46 mb in a span of 12 hours from 5 AM to 5 PM earlier. That's about as rapid an intensification rate as you're going to find. I even wonder if that's a 12-hour record. Hurricane Igor is thankfully far away from the United States, but I hope Bermuda is watching this situation very closely.
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Rather interesting...
THE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR. IGOR IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE
THE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DICTATED BY A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST.
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Fun fact: Igor is only the third hurricane on record to reach 150mph east of 50W.
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((BREAKING NEWS)): GOOGLE MAPS NOW HAS IGOR WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH....10 MPH SHY OF CAT 5 STATUS ....THE GOOD NEWS THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT RIGHT AGAIN BUT BRINGING A WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR BERMUDA PUTTING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ON BERMUDA:((BREAKING NEWS)) :no:
Google maps? I assume you are referring to recon data or something?
This storm looks like it may go annular to me
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane[/url] ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane[/url])
And a large eye to go with it. :blink:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
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(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_sat_1.jpg)
Zoomed in view of Igor.
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Wow, the eye is almost a perfect circle! Igor has a very intense eye wall, as well. I can only imagine what those fish are going through right now. :rofl2:
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The definition of weather porn
Caution: GIF is 38mb.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif)
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The definition of weather porn
Caution: GIF is 38mb.
[url]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif[/url] ([url]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif[/url])
YES! What an amazing picture. Hurricanes are so facinating. It's so sad that they do so much damage, while their structure is so beautiful. :no:
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Igor is still a Category 4 hurricane, but the winds have weakened a little to 135 mph due to an eyewall replacement cycle. It's still in a good environment to maintain its strength for the next 3 days.
That view from space is amazing, Martin! You can see the "stadium effect" and the little mesovortices spinning within the eye. The only other perspective that beats this view from outer space is in a hurricane hunter plane flying in the eye. Kyle, a lot of weather phenomena on Earth and in space are beautiful to watch from a distance but are so destructive and deadly.
Update as of 11 PM EDT: Igor has completed the eyewall replacement cycle, and is charging hard for that elusive status of Category 5. Winds are now 155 mph, and the pressure is down to 925 mb. I sure hope Bermuda is watching this closely as the forecast track is taking dead aim for that island.
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Latest on HUGE, long-time Hurricane Igor:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LARGE
HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.
IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WERE REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM...
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
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Igor is going through another eyewall replacement cycle, and is now reporting winds of 110 mph. It's still large and powerful, as hurricane force wind gusts are still being reported as far as 120 miles from the center.
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Live stream from Bermuda.
HurricaneTrack.com Live Video (http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com#)
Despite the large wind field, Bermuda should see little damage from this imo. The island is extremely prepared for storms like these. As of 2pm winds are down to 85mph
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93mph wind gust recorded
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/TXKF/2010/9/19/DailyHistory.html (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/TXKF/2010/9/19/DailyHistory.html)
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Bermuda should be very thankful that Igor has weakened over the past couple days.
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Igor still a cat 1 extratropical hurricane, with 75 mph winds. Newfoundland still under tropical storm warning and hurricane watch. Igor's winds continue to expand as well, with tropical storm force winds up to 460 miles away from the center!
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It's interesting how it's not considerably losing strength, even though it's far into those chilly waters.
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O_o The NHC discontinued advisories since it's extratropical, which shouldn't have happened yet since tropical storm warnings are still in effect for coastal Canada.
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Greenland is going to get a major storm/potential snow storm from Igor.
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It's interesting how it's not considerably losing strength, even though it's far into those chilly waters.
That's because processes that normally help intensify storms with fronts are helping it to maintain its strength when it undergoes extratropical transition. Storms that become extratropical just don't die right away. Ask Europe, Greenland, Iceland, and Canada as they receive huge often and powerful storms that were once hurricanes.
O_o The NHC discontinued advisories since it's extratropical, which shouldn't have happened yet since tropical storm warnings are still in effect for coastal Canada.
NHC is only responsible for issuing watches and warnings over the United States. It's up to the other countries to issue them for themselves. Canada will realize that Igor is now in a frontal zone with this last advisory, which means it's extratropical, and replace the tropical storm warnings with just regular gale and storm warnings.
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I recall with Earl I think the NHC and Canadian Centre debated when Earl was no longer a hurricane. So disagreements can occur. However the WMO declared the NHC the primary center for tropical forecasts so to my knowledge staff members coordinate with foreign government to issue warnings. While its up to that local government to issue the warnings, I have yet to hear an area to go against NHC recommendations. Is that about right Patrick?
Igor deepened early today as models predicted. It is still a powerful system...
From the last NHC statement:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM.
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I recall with Earl I think the NHC and Canadian Centre debated when Earl was no longer a hurricane. So disagreements can occur. However the WMO declared the NHC the primary center for tropical forecasts so to my knowledge staff members coordinate with foreign government to issue warnings. While its up to that local government to issue the warnings, I have yet to hear an area to go against NHC recommendations. Is that about right Patrick?
That's my understanding, too. The National Hurricane Center has sole official responsibility for investigating and issuing reports and advisories on tropical cyclones in the Northern Atlantic and Northern East Pacific. However, that doesn't mean that other countries have their own tropical forecasting bureaus. Canada, actually, only relatively recently started its own tropical forecasting. Now that the National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on Igor, Environment Canada is the only meteorological organization (that I'm aware of) that is.
Even though it's the official forecaster and advisory issuing organization for tropical cyclones in these two oceans, the NHC only issues watches and warnings for the United States. Each country alone has the authority to issue weather advisories for its own territory and coastlines.
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You both are correct. While the other countries can collaborate with NHC for suggestions, they still get to make the final call for issuing warnings on their own shorelines. Thus, you can see disagreements sometimes, but other countries realize all the information NHC provides them is quite helpful to where they would be less likely to just go against NHC's suggestions.
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Statements from the NHC will say "The government of Mexico(or whatever the country is) has issued a tropical storm warning" if it is for areas outside the US.
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Thanks you two for filling me in :)